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wdrag

Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

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35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not expecting a repeat but February 2008 had a nice over performing swfe. Forecast was for 2-4 which ended up being 6-9.

I was just thinking of that!  8 inches in SW Nassau and only changed to drizzle at the end.  Water temps are a lot colder in late Feb vs mid Jan though.

 

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2 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

Is it just me or does Upton seem pretty aggressive with 3-4 at JFK? I know it's a light south wind but that seems a bit optimistic no?

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I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinion

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes I was thinking more like an inch.

Surface cold takes a while to get scoured out

 This is a really cold airmass before the storm.

I like 2-4

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Gfs?

I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though

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4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinion

This event is entirely dependent on how much precip falls.  As of now the temps outside of LI due to south flow aren’t a problem.  PSU you in the mid Atlantic forum has been nailing the QPF scenario all week with the storm based off the jet orientation.   If you look at the 18 GFS you could see why it produces more snow and QPF.  It has the 250kt jet oriented perfectly in a WSW orientation to break out snow across our area.  Meanwhile the NAM that 250kt jet core doesn't get going til after 21Z and a result by that time it’s warming up   

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I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinion
Still seems high for them. I can see northern areas of Manhattan/Bronx getting that.

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though

I think you just pay attention to the models that show the least snow but correct me if I’m wrong that’s just my opinion!

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Just now, mikeysed said:

How in the world does Mt Holly not have Somerset County in a WWA? They are calling for 2 inches southern area and 4 inches for the northern part...

They do. It’s been extended south 

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

2-4 is a good bet, CT and HV 3-5.   South facing shores less, maybe 1-2

Not sure man. Models are trending snowier.

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48

The nam has not shown the higher amounts like the Globals. The other short range guidance has bought into the global ideas but not the nams. I will be interested to see if they cave tonight or continue to forecast that warm layer. 

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Some of the recent model runs have grown a little snowier in the NYC Metro area and surrounding region. The exception was the 12z GGEM, which had little or no measurable snow in this area. As it is an outlier, the GGEM was discounted.

My final snowfall estimates are:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Boston: 2"-4"
Bridgeport: 2"-4"
Islip: 1"-3"
New York City: 2"-4"
Newark: 2"-4"
Philadelphia: 2" or less
Poughkeepsie: 3"-6"
Scranton: 3"-6"

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19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48

Trending snowier sans NAM....nothing like an earlier "event" this season where Upton upped totals after nailing it as a non event previously. Raised totals when it was obviously a non event. I forget the date...

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Weird...doesnt seem like it backed off at all. 
7B256845-6BB8-4EFD-9EFD-081D23BA03CB.thumb.gif.c156650f99004e209df648442b7d31b0.gif
It didn't. And if you use 10-1 which at least half the storm should be its inline with the others mostly.

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Just now, BxEngine said:

Weird...doesnt seem like it backed off at all. 

7B256845-6BB8-4EFD-9EFD-081D23BA03CB.gif

The NAM has somewhat of a dry slot behind that initial finger of WAA precip.  Other models don’t really have that.  The handling of the jet dynamics could be why as I said has been pointed out in the MA forum this week.  I’ve seen models like to show that dry nose before in that spot behind that WAA finger and usually it doesn’t happen. You see the whole area tend to back build and then your shield from the main low arrives soon after.  That said I wouldn’t be too confident NYC metro sees anything over 3-4 

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We rarely see accumulating snow in the New York City metro area with the surface low that tracks north of Chicago North of Detroit and north of Buffalo. I guess this is what a fresh injection of Artic Air can do. Dew points are pretty impressive cold right now below zero throughout the Metro -10 Southern Connecticut -5 Central Park

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21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM has somewhat of a dry slot behind that initial finger of WAA precip.  Other models don’t really have that.  The handling of the jet dynamics could be why as I said has been pointed out in the MA forum this week.  I’ve seen models like to show that dry nose before in that spot behind that WAA finger and usually it doesn’t happen. You see the whole area tend to back build and then your shield from the main low arrives soon after.  That said I wouldn’t be too confident NYC metro sees anything over 3-4 

Very true I've seen this happen many times. 

For those talking about the NAM's performance, it was awful for the early December 'event'. Although in recent years I think it's done' quite well. 

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