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Thundersnow12

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential

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We're thinking sleet will be a much bigger issue in our area. The surface pattern and progged 925 mb cold drain are eerily similar to 12/28/15. Check out the reanalysis page on weather.us to compare to the model consensus for this event. Due to the warm start to the season, the lake is fairly mild for this time of year, so maybe the lakeshore struggles more with p-type. But west of the city, selling the huge ice totals on the verbatim web based outputs.

With the surface low strengthening to sub 1000 mb well south of us and nearly 1040 mb high to the north that's an ideal setup to drive the low level cold wedge southward on strong northeasterly flow aloft. Depending on the exact track of the surface low, there could be a potent WAA surge toward Saturday evening that may flip areas back to ZR or even plain rain.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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12/28/15 is a solid comp had quite a bit of sleet even here lakeside, i think we are mostly rain this time tho, we'll see

 

either way, my 1.3 call gonna be an lol level low ball

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8 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Plumes say congrats Lacrosse lol

i'll take that over a rainer in the city, 1' cement job far NW burbs special

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2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i'll take that over a rainer in the city, 1' cement job far NW burbs special

All rain here rumbles of thunder

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1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

taint getting close to madison on this run :yikes:

 

 

At least the NAM looks to favor sleet over freezing rain this far north.

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1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

taint getting close to madison on this run :yikes:

 

 

Verbatim it's a 6 hour period of sleet here .  still accumulates almost a foot of snow though.

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3+ inches of precip in January, and looking like it’s going to be wasted on rain/some sleet around here. Terrible.

However, at least someone will get some good snow. So enjoy!

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The 3k NAM was showing icing in N IN but the latest run moved it north of the state line. Interested to see when/if GFS follows suit.

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Not the main event but a co-worker just called me in the Cal City/Lansing/South burbs of Chicago and said there are many many spinouts and accidents right now and the roads are about as bad as he's ever seen them.  Not sure what's causing this but I figure this is a good place to let someone know.

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I didn’t find a specific date, but in January 1960, Chicago had a day where 2.76 inches of rain fell. That’s the highest number I’ve been able to find. Perhaps if the snow eludes the area, I guess we can watch a record fall?

RC can correct me on this, if he so chooses, as he has better records in his workspace than I was able to find via Google.

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2 minutes ago, King James said:

Not the main event but a co-worker just called me in the Cal City/Lansing/South burbs of Chicago and said there are many many spinouts and accidents right now and the roads are about as bad as he's ever seen them.  Not sure what's causing this but I figure this is a good place to let someone know.

Same here as well.  Lot of coworkers said they have been spinning out with black ice everywhere.

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3 minutes ago, King James said:

Not the main event but a co-worker just called me in the Cal City/Lansing/South burbs of Chicago and said there are many many spinouts and accidents right now and the roads are about as bad as he's ever seen them.  Not sure what's causing this but I figure this is a good place to let someone know.

NWS just posted this:

 

061CCC82-468D-401F-9A22-CC46EC916326.jpeg

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1 minute ago, metallica470 said:

Same here as well.  Lot of coworkers said they have been spinning out with black ice everywhere.

Went to HS in OF, go Bengals, drive safe

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I didn’t find a specific date, but in January 1960, Chicago had a day where 2.76 inches of rain fell. That’s the highest number I’ve been able to find. Perhaps if the snow eludes the area, I guess we can watch a record fall?
RC can correct me on this, if he so chooses, as he has better records in his workspace than I was able to find via Google.
January 12, 1960

The precip will bridge Friday and Saturday so it may be tough to do the daily record but maybe a decent chance to set an unofficial record for 2-day total for the month of January.

The calendar day precip record for meteorological winter is *probably* safe lol. 4.47" on December 2, 1982.

Here's the link to the attached Chicago's daily record listings for January and then you can access the other months from there:

https://www.weather.gov/lot/January_Daily_Records_Chicago10a51419b2a4e608ccb0ccac29fbfd44.jpg

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The Icon is in the same category of lolworthy models as the JMA, isn’t it?  It’s out on its own for this storm (though the snow axis finally moved more in line).

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4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Not gonna jeb walk to see the lake flooding in 33 and rain

I’ll def jebjaunt to see 20’ rollers

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Massive differences in sensible outcome around here between the NAM and GFS.  

12z was really the first model cycle to have good RAOB sampling of this thing.  

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