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Jan 8th, 2020 Coastal - little critter


Baroclinic Zone
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2 hours ago, Ogmios said:

There are snowfall warnings posted for the province of Nova Scotia expecting 6-9 inches for areas Lunenburg County,  north and eastwards

Most areas of western Nova Scotia which includes Cumberland, Kings, are under Special Weather statements with a straight out 4 inches expected, some may get more and could receive warnings as the track and intensity may shift slightly particularly for border locations as several of the models have varied on snowfall amounts closer to be in the range of 4-6 with many locations closer to 6 close to the border of the snowfall warning; moving towards the range of 2-4 in the deep southern tip of Nova Scotia

The unofficial small city of Sydney is expecting a brief changeover to rain which also retains the snowfall warning

Newfoundland is next to receive that football, and it appears our friendly neighborhood individual from that area is expecting the worst of fates compared to those who are missing out on this system as it appears to be the winter enthusiast worst enemy we like to call: RAIN

 

My subjective prediction is that the mid Atlantic is going to get hit with a surprise major blizzard that will cripple the city for a few days in mid February. 

I would gladly to some snow to a little bit of rain over nothing. Plus light snow and blowing snow Thursday on the backside. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For most of us. Even for you, it's on the fence...although not sure what your expectation is. 

If things break perfectly, I see 3-4" as the top potential.  Right now I'm leaning 1-2".  Keep in mind we've seen less then 1" in 3 weeks time here and we've been running huge departures so any wintry feel for a few days will be a nice change.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

If things break perfectly, I see 3-4" as the top potential.  Right now I'm leaning 1-2".  Keep in mind we've seen less then 1" in 3 weeks time here and we've been running huge departures so any wintry feel for a few days will be a nice change.

No argument here. 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Ha I was thinking that... a little critter in NVT dropped a widespread 4-6” last night in the Northeast Kingdom of VT and it barely showed up on models.  Maybe this little critter can do the same down there.

I’ll be up in BTV by Thursday.  Looking forward to seeing and feeling like winter.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

What's your point?  We have 48 pages in the main January discussion thread thru 6 days.  I'd rather break out individual storms, regardless of outcome, so that we keep the main thread less cluttered,

My point is this has been modeled as a crap event for 90%+ of the board (The winners are a few inches save for James who may get 5-6).  In our decent winter this Thread wouldn’t get nearly as much action.  This winter since mid December has been abominable.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha I was thinking that... a little critter in NVT dropped a widespread 4-6” last night in the Northeast Kingdom of VT and it barely showed up on models.  Maybe this little critter can do the same down there.

If you ignored meso outputs you wouldn't have known it was coming up there. Deep winter up there, maybe a devastating ice storm to make it look like Hoth

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My point is this has been modeled as a crap event for 90%+ of the board (The winners are a few inches save for James who may get 5-6).  In our decent winter this Thread wouldn’t get nearly as much action.  This winter since mid December has been abominable.

Delusions of grandeur I suppose, for those who thought this had a chance for them.

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It looks like there could be a little weenie band NW of the main CCB....say, like BOS to PVD if the main CCB is kissing the Cape....if it's a little SE, then it would be more like GHG-UUU...but this band could give a little mini-surprise to someone. IF this trends a little NW throughout the day today, then it could get into metrowest down to E CT.

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Delusions of grandeur I suppose, for those who thought this had a chance for them.

I mean 4 days ago this was going to rain hard for you and snow up here.  

I don’t think it was unreasonable for anyone southeast of ORH to think they had a shot.

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