Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not a big fan of seeing short term guidance like hrrr and rap so paltry. Usually one of those would be going to town if we're gonna see a NW surprise. Throw the rpm in there too. I didnt think the 6z Euro looked any better. Less than an inch for most cept Cape and Islands. With HRRR paltry it's going to take a bigger wholesale shift by 18z in those meso models. Too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not a big fan of seeing short term guidance like hrrr and rap so paltry. Usually one of those would be going to town if we're gonna see a NW surprise. Throw the rpm in there too. Yeah they aren't really flagging a big surprise quite yet. RAP always seems to be too far NW after hr 18 or so and that is borderline to like the canal for larger stuff right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I didnt think the 6z Euro looked any better. Less than an inch for most cept Cape and Islands. With HRRR paltry it's going to take a bigger wholesale shift by 18z in those meso models. Too bad Really? I thought 6z euro def looked better. Doesn't help most of us but that was probably pretty decent for S RI and SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6z euro was definitely better down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah they aren't really flagging a big surprise quite yet. RAP always seems to be too far NW after hr 18 or so and that is borderline to like the canal for larger stuff right now. Yeah I'm bracing for the messenger shuffle today unless we see a quick change in that short term guidance. They are prob telling us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z euro was definitely better down there. Yea for the Cape was speaking here,like .05 better. Life support right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Here is what I’ve gleaned from the 26 pages of analysis by peeps way smarter than I. 4 factors as to why this will be 4 flakes for MBY. 1. Fast flow 2. Shit streak 3. Compact Critter 4. Lack of inflow I’m going with T-1” for my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Seen this show before (unless something changes) BOS should expect c-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Seen this show before (unless something changes) BOS should expect c-1" Would be nice to get a couple of inches as with the wind Thursday and single digit temps would be a deep winter drifting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 9z sref got better for the coastal regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Man, the short term guidance really gets that initial forcing really far west. Like E/C PA to BGM but then t just dries up and the newer forcing takes over south of the islands and LI. Nice gap in the middle where most of us are screwed. Theres gonna be a ton of radar hallucinations today as it will look like a big hit for all of SNE for a time before that initial forcing gets handed off to the offshore stuff. Hopefully with each passing run we see a delay in the offshore stuff becoming dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, the short term guidance really gets that initial forcing really far west. Like E/C PA to BGM but then t just dries up and the newer forcing takes over south of the islands and LI. Nice gap in the middle where most of us are screwed. Theres gonna be a ton of radar hallucinations today as it will look like a big hit for all of SNE for a time before that initial forcing gets handed off to the offshore stuff. Hopefully with each passing run we see a delay in the offshore stuff becoming dominant. You can see it at 700. I was playing around with the H7 winds and there is a nice jet there into PA. That weakens and then the offshore one takes over like you said. So the precip sort of shrivels up as it moves east before re-developing to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not a big fan of seeing short term guidance like hrrr and rap so paltry. Usually one of those would be going to town if we're gonna see a NW surprise. Throw the rpm in there too. May be the messenger shuffle going on, Edit: Just saw above you mentioned this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You can see it at 700. I was playing around with the H7 winds and there is a nice jet there into PA. That weakens and then the offshore one takes over like you said. So the precip sort of shrivels up as it moves east before re-developing to the south. This was why I felt the globals for a time early yesterday were west of the mesos. They will usually overplay precip in what will be the dead in between zone in these setups. It was pretty much the cause of regular busts back in the 80s/90s on these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 RPM is basically C-1" NW of the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, the short term guidance really gets that initial forcing really far west. Like E/C PA to BGM but then t just dries up and the newer forcing takes over south of the islands and LI. Nice gap in the middle where most of us are screwed. Theres gonna be a ton of radar hallucinations today as it will look like a big hit for all of SNE for a time before that initial forcing gets handed off to the offshore stuff. Hopefully with each passing run we see a delay in the offshore stuff becoming dominant. That is gonna make this all the more annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: That is gonna make this all the more annoying. This always happens with these storms but usually in normal speed flow it occurs 200-300 miles further south on a system that originated down in the TN Valley but since this sucker is in such insanely fast flow that transfer is occurring in SNE or in the NYC corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 And east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 NAM goes east, not a surprise given the 6z outlier. Glad I stayed conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The 9z SREFs have snow in NYC metro and Long Island. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 NAM still looks like a solid advisory event in as mass.... 3-5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Torture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 James and canal people should do ok. Rest of us hungry people awaiting crumbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Critter to the shitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Nam still “crushes” canal east with 4-6 If we messenger shuffle on guidance overall then this is NBD anywhere . This was really a New Bedford to Wareham - Cape threat anyway and thats where nam has good lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Critter to the shitter. Based on a NAM run? I’ll wait for real guidance to come out. Euro improved at 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 SE mass folks needs the blessing of one Benedict’s posts. I.E dire times Maybe James sees the Gulf Stream magic being in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nam still “crushes” canal east with 4-6 If we messenger shuffle on guidance overall then this is NBD anywhere . This was really a New Bedford to Wareham - Cape threat anyway and thats where nam has good lift NAM looked really good from canal east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Based on a NAM run? I’ll wait for real guidance to come out. Euro improved at 6z For most of us. Even for you, it's on the fence...although not sure what your expectation is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Looks like 2" over Tblizz's E-Coli well on the 3K NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now