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Jan 8th, 2020 Coastal - little critter


Baroclinic Zone
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man that is so close. Jeez like 20 miles means so much.

I asked but nobody is answering?  So I’ll ask you directly:  these are model runs/not the exact future; do you really think that shit streak is gonna have that much influence on this in the end/at go time?  The spacing was better on the NAM. If the spacing increases incrementally again on the next run, that may be all we need for this to blossom up toward SNE.  And ultimately be closer and not kick East like that? 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

I asked but nobody is answering?  So I’ll ask you directly:  these are model runs/not the exact future; do you really think that shit streak is gonna have that much influence on this in the end/at go time?  The spacing was better on the NAM. If the spacing increases incrementally again on the next run, that may be all we need for this to blossom up toward SNE.  And ultimately be closer and not kick East like that? 

It could definitely keep coming NW bit by bit...but we're running out of time for a large change. We've seen it before, but it's rare. That shitstreak is the reason we're not seeing this be a quick hitting 0.75-1" of qpf over most of SNE. It's possible we end up with something like the RPM where it's 2-4" over a good area with a little zone of higher and maybe far SE MA gets into the real CCB.

But it's not like that streak is just going to exert no influence by the time we get to go time. Guidance could be overplaying it by a little bit though which is why we could still see 2-4" as far west as W CT and C/W MA if things go right.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It could definitely keep coming NW bit by bit...but we're running out of time for a large change. We've seen it before, but it's rare. That shitstreak is the reason we're not seeing this be a quick hitting 0.75-1" of qpf over most of SNE. It's possible we end up with something like the RPM where it's 2-4" over a good area with a little zone of higher and maybe far SE MA gets into the real CCB.

But it's not like that streak is just going to exert no influence by the time we get to go time. Guidance could be overplaying it by a little bit though which is why we could still see 2-4" as far west as W CT and C/W MA if things go right.

Yeah I’m on the bit by bit train. I’m not sure that streak goes away, but given the tendencies of models seemingly tick NW last minute, that’s what we might hope for. Perhaps guidance underestimates the western edge of this thing given good forcing. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I’m on the bit by bit train. I’m not sure that streak goes away, but given the tendencies of models seemingly tick NW last minute, that’s what we might hope for. Perhaps guidance underestimates the western edge of this thing given good forcing. 

Didn’t say go away...But exert less force on our system due to better spacing like NAM is showing when we finally get to go time.  That seems to be happening tick by tick. 

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I am not buying the jump east, the models are following the convection that explodes as the storm hits the ocean off the Delmarva, the Gulf Stream influence.  The 00z suite of models are jumping on a faster negative tilt.

I have to say that I agree with that idea.  We’ve seen this before, and that silly jump East just seems implausible. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Didn’t say go away...But exert less force on our system due to better spacing like NAM is showing when we finally get to go time.  That seems to be happening tick by tick. 

I guess my question is whether there is a tipping point, where a little shift in the SS allows the storm to come much further west.  Or is it equivalent, i.e. a 50 mile change to the SS means a 50 mile change to the storm?

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I guess my question is whether there is a tipping point, where a little shift in the SS allows the storm to come much further west.  Or is it equivalent, i.e. a 50 mile change to the SS means a 50 mile change to the storm?

I would say at this point, a slight shift in the SS is a huge shift in the storm track.  Satellite still shows a mid-level disturbance the main energy for our coastal is still digging southward.  I believe we have a benchmark track of the surface low sub 1000mb.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The East kick is real, I don’t think it’s following convection. The shit streak is kicking it East.

It all comes down to how prominent that feature is 

You don’t know that for sure?  That depiction isn’t 100% fact.  So that’s my point exactly... How much influence/or your word “prominence” will the streak exert in reality?  That seems to be changing across guidance all day today.  

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