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Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2020

Number of Tornadoes in 2020  

24 members have voted

  1. 1. Number of Tornadoes

    • Less than 900
      0
    • 900-1000
      0
    • 1000-1100
    • 1100-1200
    • 1200-1300
    • 1300-1400
    • 1400-1500
    • Greater than 1500
      0

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  • Poll closes on 03/01/2020 at 06:00 AM

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As is tradition, let's give our calls for how active the first tornado season of the decade will be. Looks like we'll be heading towards spring with weak positive ENSO and roughly neutral PDO, in addition to a lack of drought over most of the area east of the Rockies. I have a feeling like we may see another A/AA season given some of these climate states, but obviously sub-seasonal activity will again be key. Will have more analysis later.

Number of tornadoes: 1310

First High Risk: 4/18

  • Weenie 1

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It took 7 years but I finally saw a season of sustained A/AA activity.. although I know that may be a controversial statement in itself lol. The pattern looks somewhat similar to last winter at this time so I'll stick with persistence. 

 

1345

First high risk 4/20 

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1,090 and no high risk. I'm not really seeing anything to flip us back to more sustained high-end tornado activity like was seen in some years such as 2003, '04, '08 and '11 (although, a neutral PDO and no big honking NE Pacific ridge forcing eastern troughing and keeping the central CONUS cold through April and into May after a mild DJF to piss off the snow lovers would help). Also guessing SPC will be somewhat gun-shy after the seeming slam-dunk of last May 20.

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Much like last year, as of right now things look promising. Going to guess 1380. SPC will be gun shy but another high end potential event in may will have them pull the trigger. Who knows if it will verify. First high risk: May 10th

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1,090 and no high risk. I'm not really seeing anything to flip us back to more sustained high-end tornado activity like was seen in some years such as 2003, '04, '08 and '11 (although, a neutral PDO and no big honking NE Pacific ridge forcing eastern troughing and keeping the central CONUS cold through April and into May after a mild DJF to piss off the snow lovers would help). Also guessing SPC will be somewhat gun-shy after the seeming slam-dunk of last May 20.


Just as a side note we started with a cool spring in OK but set the yearly record with 147 tornadoes. Granted only one was a EF3 but it was a wild few weeks as it was happening.


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