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January Observations

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Welp, we all thought it couldn't get worse than 2011-2012 and last year, but so far it has been. Here is a GSP, CAE, and AVL summary so far:

GSP: Including fall and winter, GSP has seen just 17 mornings where the temp has fallen to freezing or below. The overall low has been just 22 and that was back on Nov 13. There has not been a trace of frozen precip reported. Through Jan 16, the monthly temp average has been +9 degrees with just 5 nights of 32 or below and a low of just 28. GSP has seen just one day this month that averaged below normal (-1 on Jan 5). The past 7 days the temp departure has been plus 10, 17, 18, 16, 18, 20, and 14, with 5 days in a row not falling below 50 degrees. 

CAE: Including fall and winter, CAE has seen just 13 mornings fall to 32 or below. The overall low was just 28 back on Nov 13. There has not been a trace of snow reported. Through Jan 16, the monthly temp has averaged + 12.6 with just 2 nights falling to 32 or below and a low of just 29. CAE has not had a single day this month below average. The past 7 days have seen temps average plus 14, 22, 23, 24, 25, 23, and 19 (with a plus 20 and 12 earlier in the month for good measure) with 4 nights in a row not falling below 60.  6 days this month have reached 70+, with 4 reaching 75+. 

AVL: Including fall and winter AVL has seen just 34 nights with the temp reaching 32 or lower. The overall low has been 18 set back on Nov 13. Only a trace of snow has been recorded. Through Jan 16, the monthly temp has averaged +11.3, with just 5 nights falling to 32 or below and a low of just 26.  AVL has not had a single day below average this month, and the past 7 days have seen temps average plus 16, 23, 21, 17, 20, 22, and 12, with 6 days in a row not falling below 45. 

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2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Welp, we all thought it couldn't get worse than 2011-2012 and last year, but so far it has been. Here is a GSP, CAE, and AVL summary so far:

GSP: Including fall and winter, GSP has seen just 17 mornings where the temp has fallen to freezing or below. The overall low has been just 22 and that was back on Nov 13. There has not been a trace of frozen precip reported. Through Jan 16, the monthly temp average has been +9 degrees with just 5 nights of 32 or below and a low of just 28. GSP has seen just one day this month that averaged below normal (-1 on Jan 5). The past 7 days the temp departure has been plus 10, 17, 18, 16, 18, 20, and 14, with 5 days in a row not falling below 50 degrees. 

CAE: Including fall and winter, CAE has seen just 13 mornings fall to 32 or below. The overall low was just 28 back on Nov 13. There has not been a trace of snow reported. Through Jan 16, the monthly temp has averaged + 12.6 with just 2 nights falling to 32 or below and a low of just 29. CAE has not had a single day this month below average. The past 7 days have seen temps average plus 14, 22, 23, 24, 25, 23, and 19 (with a plus 20 and 12 earlier in the month for good measure) with 4 nights in a row not falling below 60.  6 days this month have reached 70+, with 4 reaching 75+. 

AVL: Including fall and winter AVL has seen just 34 nights with the temp reaching 32 or lower. The overall low has been 18 set back on Nov 13. Only a trace of snow has been recorded. Through Jan 16, the monthly temp has averaged +11.3, with just 5 nights falling to 32 or below and a low of just 26.  AVL has not had a single day below average this month, and the past 7 days have seen temps average plus 16, 23, 21, 17, 20, 22, and 12, with 6 days in a row not falling below 45. 

Man that's some good info...BRUTAL and painful but good info!

Hasnt gotten above 45 here today..some cherry trees are blooming and actually had so.e pollen on the boat yesterday when I got off the lake. 2 things I've never seen in January

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Everyone's all upset about all these 10 & 15 day storms vanishing, and we can't even get a one day forecast right.

Right now, we're 3 degrees warmer than the forecast called for.

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Yes, the forecast on todays (non) event has been atrocious.  Majorly missed the mark at 72, 48 and 24 hours.

Honestly I am starting to be more irritated with the inability of our forecast models to predict a crappy winter month, week , day, hour than I am the actual weather.  This has been a horrible streak of inaccuracy the last 2-3 winters.

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Many know that GSP recorded no snow (not even a trace) for the first (and only) time in recorded history  (going back to 1892) for the 2011-12 season. There have also been 15 seasons (which is surprising to me though 9 of them were between 1931 and 1956) where GSP recorded just a trace: 

1902-03, 1908-09, 1924-25, 1931-32, 1937-38, 1938-39, 1940-41, 1942-43, 1944-45, 1949-50, 1953-54, 1956-57, 1975-76, 1991-92, 2005-06

There have also been 7 seasons where GSP only saw less than .5 in of snow but was at least .1 (so very little snow, basically a dusting or less).

1897-98, 1927-28, 1933-34, 1952-53, 1955-56, 1973-74, 1994-95

So through 127 years of records, GSP had less than a half inch for 23 of those years. However, 12 of those came in the years between 1931-32 and 1956-57, which must have been very depressing stretch for upstate snowfall! 

GSP received at least 10 inches semi-regularly (every 3-5 years) up unitl 1992-93 (Superstorm) and has not seen 10 inches in a season since. 

 

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On 1/18/2020 at 2:34 PM, wncsnow said:

It's already rained more than I anticipated.. We may eek out .25 to .50

Lol.. we got just over an 1.5. I'm so done with over performing rain storms!!

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8 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Lol.. we got just over an 1.5. I'm so done with over performing rain storms!!

Yea ended up with about an inch when models were spitting out .10 to .30 at most..

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15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yea ended up with about an inch when models were spitting out .10 to .30 at most..

I think the next person that wants rain or mentions drought should get banned!

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3 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

My temp is not dropping this evening,  I think it's too breezy.  Was hoping to go below 20 but I cant even get below freezing.:rolleyes: 32.7

It’s because all the snow clouds! They are stopping the radiational cooling! Tomorrow night, teens look easily achievable, due to fresh snowpack!:snowing:

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