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George BM

January Banter 2020

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I never said anyone left in the last day or two.  Y'all jumped to that conclusion.  I'm just talking post quality.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Who left?

If I had to guess off the top of my head in our region 

Mitchnick

Ian

Ender

Zwyts still posts occasionally 

Ian seems to have disappeared from the face of the earth

Stormtracker pops in from time to time to pick up his CEO bonus check.

Usetobe would probably still post if we actually had winters around here anymore. 

Did I miss anyone?

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ian is alive and well. just talked to him yesterday. 

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Just now, WhiteoutMD said:

When is it going to snow? 

It has snowed and is snowing somewhere.  Just not here.  

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41 minutes ago, H2O said:

Says the guy that bitches the most about lack of snow

Since when did complaining about lack of snow become a problem? Would you go to the "dating over 30" reddit and complain about all the posts of people lamenting their lack of success?

Its just strange to me. That's all.

 

31 minutes ago, mappy said:

who said its out of control and toxic? 

Sorry, I thought that was implied based on you saying people are leaving of it. Of course maybe me and you have different definitions of what the word "toxic" means. I mean that in the most loosely based form.

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2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Since when did complaining about lack of snow become a problem? Would you go to the "dating over 30" reddit and complain about all the posts of people lamenting their lack of success?

Its just strange to me. That's all.

 

Why would i go to a dating over 30 reddit?  First I'm married so thats a non-starter and second, I'm not over 30(looks)

  • Haha 2

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5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Since when did complaining about lack of snow become a problem? Would you go to the "dating over 30" reddit and complain about all the posts of people lamenting their lack of success?

Its just strange to me. That's all.

 

Sorry, I thought that was implied based on you saying people are leaving of it. Of course maybe me and you have different definitions of what the word "toxic" means. I mean that in the most loosely based form.

no one said toxic, except you. nor did i say anything about people leaving? but okay. 

  • Confused 1

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1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Its not an exaggeration. We are having the worst 4 year stretch in the history of record keeping. Can't change that.

Sure if you dig back to 5 or 6 years, you can use those great seasons to make a case that it isn't so bad. But it isn't really relevant. Why? Because we are talking about time in between. We are talking about a stretch of duration without. Would it matter that you drank a gallon of water a week ago, if you haven't had water since?

Answer: Not a damn bit...

You can't point to banner seasons 10 years ago to make a case that we've been 4 years with little snowfall which is a record smashing long period.

You continue to exaggerate. Let’s break down your points...

1.  Only if you make up the number for one of the 4.  This winter is only about 58% through DC snow climo.  In years where DC entered Feb with less than an inch of snow it still hit 5”+ the rest of the way the majority of time. So history does not support your assumption DC doesn’t get 2.4” the rest of winter.  And if they do you have absolutely no statistical case left so your position is tenuous at best. 

2. Ok let’s not go back 6 years let’s go back 1 year.  Last year was an above average GOOD snowfall year in DC.  The 7th snowiest year in the last 30!  

3.  I’m not going back 10 years to banner seasons.  From 2014-2016 was the snowiest 3 year stretch in the last 40 years and it just ended 4 years ago!  Since then we have had 1 awful 1 typical crappy and 1 good snowfall year.   That’s a normal split for any 3 year period.  Especially following the best 3 years of the last 40 years!!!

 

 

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39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You continue to exaggerate. Let’s break down your points...

1.  Only if you make up the number for one of the 4.  This winter is only about 58% through DC snow climo.  In years where DC entered Feb with less than an inch of snow it still hit 5”+ the rest of the way the majority of time. So history does not support your assumption DC doesn’t get 2.4” the rest of winter.  And if they do you have absolutely no statistical case left so your position is tenuous at best. 

2. Ok let’s not go back 6 years let’s go back 1 year.  Last year was an above average GOOD snowfall year in DC.  The 7th snowiest year in the last 30!  

3.  I’m not going back 10 years to banner seasons.  From 2014-2016 was the snowiest 3 year stretch in the last 40 years and it just ended 4 years ago!  Since then we have had 1 awful 1 typical crappy and 1 good snowfall year.   That’s a normal split for any 3 year period.  Especially following the best 3 years of the last 40 years!!!

 

 

You are correct on the first point. I don't disagree at all. Where I do disagree is the thinking that DC will get the 2.4 inches. I don't think they will. Obviously I'd be glad to be wrong. You'd know way better than me but I haven't heard you say anything about any pattern turnaround. In fact, just the opposite. Haven't you and chill kind of said we are pretty much cooked? It doesn't want to snow here. Its not even close. Where do you see us turning around? 15 days from now? Its been 15 days away the last 4 years.

Again, I agree if you go back 5 or 6 years, we have good years. But what I am specifically talking about is time period in between.....that is the focus, it has to be the focus when talking snow drought because I am saying, how LONG HAS IT BEEN? 5- 6 years ago doesn't negate a 4 year historic stretch of lack of snow. If it was 1 year, okay, sure, 2 years? I guess. 3-4 years? Nope. You can take the last 4 years and compare to any other 4 year period in the books and we have it beat with lack of snow. That is a historically bad period for snow. Its just what it is. We did have some great years prior, they were amazing, but that was 5-6 years ago now.

I am factoring in last years January isolated warmish southern slider..... its in the equation. Its still a historically snowless period.

 

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Anyone remember this band from the 80’s? Loved these guys...and someone else loved them as much as me apparently. They named a crappy ass weather model after them. 

9BCE2379-79F5-4659-A96D-2A83589CCB58.jpeg

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

What are the odds that those dudes in the LR thread who are constantly down and negative say that all of their friends think they are positive and always upbeat in real life?

i dont know, but i wish i had the moderation powers to do something about it @Wow

 

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2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Again, I agree if you go back 5 or 6 years, we have good years. But what I am specifically talking about is time period in between.....that is the focus, it has to be the focus when talking snow drought because I am saying, how LONG HAS IT BEEN? 5- 6 years ago doesn't negate a 4 year historic stretch of lack of snow. If it was 1 year, okay, sure, 2 years? I guess. 3-4 years? Nope. You can take the last 4 years and compare to any other 4 year period in the books and we have it beat with lack of snow. That is a historically bad period for snow. Its just what it is. We did have some great years prior, they were amazing, but that was 5-6 years ago now.

I am factoring in last years January isolated warmish southern slider..... its in the equation. Its still a historically snowless period.

 

1. Not 5 years. LAST year was the 7th snowiest DC winter in the last 30 years!   Stop saying you have to go back 5-6 years. LAST year was a snowy winter in DC by DC standards. 

2. The storm last January wasn’t a warmish storm or period.  It came during a 6 day stretch where DCA recorded highs in the 30s when the avg is 43*.  The day of the snow the high was 32.  It was a cold storm and period by DC standards.  Snow was on the ground for several days.  

 

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@RevWarReenactor  I also think one issue is with HOW our snow typically comes...and it simply doesn't jive with how you want it to come.  But its the reality.  

Our snowiest weeks statistically are between January 20th and March 15th.  And it's not even close...the odds of snow the first 15 days of March are DOUBLE the odds of snow the first half of January even...and 3 times higher than the odds of snow the second half of December!  But you pretty much toss any snow we get after Feb 20th because of "sun angle" and melting and all that jazz.  And yea...snow in later Feb and Mar will likely melt fast and have trouble sticking to roads and all that.  You are right.  that is what late snow is like...but you are tossing like 30% of our snowfall when you do that.  If you break the winter up into chunks...Feb 15-Mar15 would be the second snowiest part of winter behind Jan 15-Feb 15 and its not even close...way way way snowier than anything before Jan 15th.  So the issue is a LOT of our snow comes late...and that is our normal climo...and you dont like that.  I get the feeling you want a lot of snow to come in December and early January...and get frustrated every year when we get to mid january with crappy results...but the truth is that is our normal climo.  The odds of 3" of snow the first half of December is ONLY 13%.  The odds the second half of Dec are even worse...only 6%!. The odds of 3" of snow between Jan 1-15th and only...13%.  They go way way up after that and stay high until mid March...but you are already frustrated by the time our chances of snow increase late January every year.  That is part of this imo...

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4 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@leesburg 04 Who is "Ender"?

@mappy is a meteorologist now?

lol nope, hopefully all will be fixed soon. 

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My God, melts up and down the eastern seaboard with this 12z suite. It’s time to hoist the MWCE alert.

giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51a02bb75d48f4c5436f7

If only it did keep people from posting after you guide them into the light.

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