• Member Statistics

    16,019
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BlckJckKhoWX
    Newest Member
    BlckJckKhoWX
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

Euro was leading the way on this with a better Pv orientation for the first week of February. The GEFS just caved in that direction. I’m definitely feeling more confident now for the cold shot around the 5th 

DE852509-A650-4764-81D8-CFF0058A892E.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Temperatures will likely run above normal through the remainder of January and into the start of February. Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC for the remainder of the month. Colder air could return late in the first week in February or just afterward.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Boston would have a higher probability of receiving a moderate or significant snowfall than Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

A storm will likely bring 0.50" to 1.50" rain to Washington, DC to Boston tomorrow into perhaps part of Sunday. A moderate snowfall with perhaps some locally significant amounts could occur across upstate New York, northern New England, and parts of southern Ontario (north and east of Toronto).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was +10.32 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.237.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through February 1. Wave 2 activity could increase near the end of January leading to some warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of February. 

On January 23, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.812 (RMM). The January 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.109.

The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. The MJO moved into Phase 7 on January 20.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City. That would surpass the 38.6° monthly temperature from 1949 to make 2020 the 9th warmest January on record.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's some legitimacy regarding next week's threat.

There's a strong +PNA spike ahead of the storm and a Hudson block in place to try to force the storm south of us. We'll also be seeing the MJO 7 lag effects. 

However without a true -NAO block this can easily cut too. I'm leaning towards a coastal runner right now. It would take tremendous luck for us to score. 

NAO is projected to be negative around the 1st of the month

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last word for the night.     The EURO is 18" for Feb. 02.       When I wake up tomorrow.................Where Is It?     "Oh Eban!, Is It Really Me"?.........    or just these idiot computer models.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah the sun was surprisingly comforting today wasn't it. I was standing on the south side of a wall and it was truly warm and pleasant, much more so than the calendar date would have implied.

I got to 51 at home but saw 55 near KDXR.

Definitely a nice day to enjoy before the washout tomorrow.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last 7 days of January are averaging 40degs., or 7.5degs. AN.

Month to date  is +6.8[39.2].      January should end at +6.9[39.3], or 8th. Place.

Indeed, as speculated, the EURO 18" has melted away in one run.

The first 10 days of Feb. are averaging 35degs., or +2.      Nothing should happen till the 8th., snowwise.

Winter to date is:  From Dec. 01 +3.4 and From Dec. 22  +7.3.

43* here at 6am.     42* at 7am.       43*, breezy, drizzle at 8am.     44*, rain at 9am.     49* by 3pm, rain,windy.   51* with breaks in clouds at 3:30pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A pretty good amount of precipitation just off to our west which should be moving into the metro area over the next hour or two. It looks to be making pretty slow eastward movement so we should get a decent amount of rain today. 

Current temp 40

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Warmest January since 2010 at EWR and NYC so far. 
 

January temperature departures since 2010

EWR....7 out of 11 warmer 

NYC.....6 out of 11 colder

LGA.....7 out of 11 warmer

...........EWR....NYC....LGA

2020....+7.3...+6.8...+5.8....so far

2019....+0.3....-0.1...+0.3

2018....-0.7....-0.9....-1.5

2017...+6.2...+5.4....+6.8

2016...+1.7....+1.9...+2.7

2015...-3.1.....-2.7......-3.1

2014....-4.5.....-4.0....-4.2

2013....+3.8....+2.5...+2.9

2012....+5.4...+4.7....+4.6

2011....-2.1.....-2.9.....-1.0

2010...+0.8....-0.1.....+0.1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warmest January since 2010 at EWR and NYC so far. 
 

January temperature departures since 2010

EWR....7 out of 11 warmer 

NYC.....6 out of 11 colder

LGA.....7 out of 11 warmer

...........EWR....NYC....LGA

2020....+7.3...+6.8...+5.8....so far

2019....+0.3....-0.1...+0.3

2018....-0.7....-0.9....-1.5

2017...+6.2...+5.4....+6.8

2016...+1.7....+1.9...+2.7

2015...-3.1.....-2.7......-3.1

2014....-4.5.....-4.0....-4.2

2013....+3.8....+2.5...+2.9

2012....+5.4...+4.7....+4.6

2011....-2.1.....-2.9.....-1.0

2010...+0.8....-0.1.....+0.1

Easily. What is particularly scary is the fact that there is no cold air in sight, which is simply amazing. It is like winter just didn’t show up this year

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Easily. What is particularly scary is the fact that there is no cold air in sight, which is simply amazing. It is like winter just didn’t show up this year

 

Everything that could've gone wrong went wrong so far. We had a massive +EPO flip, zero Atlantic blocking, very cold and stable PV in the Arctic, essentially a -PDO/PNA. 

That's why the entire country + Europe is well above normal and Alaska's cold finally. It's very reminiscent of 11/12 & 01/02 though with the Nino influence & split flow pattern it'll be more active. 

Time will time if anything will truly change soon. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Easily. What is particularly scary is the fact that there is no cold air in sight, which is simply amazing. It is like winter just didn’t show up this year

 

We weren’t even the warmest relative to the means across the Northern Hemisphere. The ridge stuck north of Hawaii with the +EPO and +NAO Is a very mild winter pattern for us. We would probably be talking about 100 degree days if this was the summer. 

862F2F63-7977-4681-AFB1-98AFEB74E508.gif.a5a6ec692995d7d8ead141ce16b5a62e.gif

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts...

At 9 am, rain was moving into the New York City Metro Area. As of 9 am, rainfall totals included: Baltimore: 1.47"; Philadelphia: 0.59"; and, Washington, DC: 1.33". A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts remains on track for the region.

Meanwhile, ENSO and teleconnections developments have continued to evolve toward a scenario where a milder February may now be more likely than a colder one.

During February, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly will likely average 0.00°C to +0.75°C. The most recent 6-week moving average is +0.52°C.

During February, both the AO and EPO will likely remain predominantly positive. The AO has been positive on 75% days this winter to date, including 68% during which it was +1.000 or above.

This ENSO-teleconnections combination typically favors a warmer than normal February.

Late yesterday (18z GEFS) and overnight (0z EPS/0z and 6z GEFS) now show the trough shifting to the west and potential ridge development in the East near the end of their timeframes.

In addition, the CFSv2 has been steadily evolving toward a milder solution in the East.

Most recent CFSv2 forecasts:

CFSv2012520200z.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

At 9 am, rain was moving into the New York City Metro Area. As of 9 am, rainfall totals included: Baltimore: 1.47"; Philadelphia: 0.59"; and, Washington, DC: 1.33". A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts remains on track for the region.

Meanwhile, ENSO and teleconnections developments have continued to evolve toward a scenario where a milder February may now be more likely than a colder one.

During February, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly will likely average 0.00°C to +0.75°C. The most recent 6-week moving average is +0.52°C.

During February, both the AO and EPO will likely remain predominantly positive. The AO has been positive on 75% days this winter to date, including 68% during which it was +1.000 or above.

This ENSO-teleconnections combination typically favors a warmer than normal February.

Late yesterday (18z GEFS) and overnight (0z EPS/0z and 6z GEFS) now show the trough shifting to the west and potential ridge development in the East near the end of their timeframes.

In addition, the CFSv2 has been steadily evolving toward a milder solution in the East.

Most recent CFSv2 forecasts:

CFSv2012520200z.jpg

The CFS has been getting warmer and warmer for February with each run. Now that we are at the tail end of January, the CFS holds more weight. Based on the latest ensembles, the ugly pattern continues at least through the 1st 2 weeks of February.....

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

35F 

Sprinkles in air

 

Wasn’t today supposed to be the great coastal snow storm? I think I read that on this forum...

Lol.  Looks silly in hindsight.zero cold air 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don Bluewave, it's amazing how the LR keeps showing signs of improvement only to push back or evaporate the look. I would love to understand what is keeping the AK trough and or Hawaii ridge in place. 

Hopefully we at least get a decent period similar to last March, but the consistent bad pattern for snow is frustrating and interesting at the same time.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still think our chances will go up for snow around the 5th. The airmass will greatly improve. Signs of the trough pulling back west between the 10-15 of February. But that’s so far out in time it will probably changed. I continue to like the disruptions to the Pv we are seeing for February. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Moscow has really gone 60 consecutive days with AN T's and we are living in a world with a static 30-Year Normal, then the odds of this happening at random must be near 10^17/10^5 or 10^12 to 1 against happening at random.      AN and BN days should average out, right?

This is because 2^60 is of the order 10^17 and there are on the order of 10^4 days in a 30 year period.     This streak could have begun on any one of those days.       And further reduce the now 10^12 by 10^2 for let's say any area on the surface of the earth (comprising 1% of the surface---of course Moscow itself isn't the only area that experienced this event so we include the surroundings)  could have experienced this event.

I am left with 10^10 or 100^9 or   100 Billion to 1 that we should hear about any such event happening anywhere in the world at random.      There must be more reasons to reduce this.  Any thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave great post a few days ago about a stronger wave in p1 to disrupt the Pv/vortex.

 

 

I like HM but he has busted very badly so far. He called for a very cold and snowy December and January with massive -EPO and +PNA blocking, he also called for a continuation of cold/snow through February. It hasn’t been a good winter for him at all

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, snowman19 said:

I like HM but he busted very badly so far. He called for a very cold and snowy December and January with massive -EPO and +PNA blocking, he also called for a continuation of cold/snow through February. It hasn’t been a good winter for him at all

Anyone that has gone cold and snowy for this winter has had it rough. My point of posting his tweet is that I agree with him. Does it mean 40 inch February for Knyc? No! All I’m saying is I don’t think February will be a all out disaster. (like January) IMO February should offer some chances. It was obvious last week (I posted such) that January was toast. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

If Moscow has really gone 60 consecutive days with AN T's and we are living in a world with a static 30-Year Normal, then the odds of this happening at random must be near 10^17/10^5 or 10^12 to 1 against happening at random.      AN and BN days should average out, right?

This is because 2^60 is of the order 10^17 and there are on the order of 10^4 days in a 30 year period.     This streak could have begun on any one of those days.       And further reduce the now 10^12 by 10^2 for let's say any area on the surface of the earth (comprising 1% of the surface---of course Moscow itself isn't the only area that experienced this event so we include the surroundings)  could have experienced this event.

I am left with 10^10 or 100^9 or   100 Billion to 1 that we should hear about any such event happening anywhere in the world at random.      There must be more reasons to reduce this.  Any thoughts?

30 year averages are rising. It has been exceptionally warm in Europe and the warmth is likely to continue for some time. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bluewave said:

Root for the transient -NAO near the start of February to help us out. We have had surprises in the past around these brief -NAO episodes. While it’s no guarantee, at least it’s better than we have seen all winter so far from the NAO.

5CB1183A-D960-4EC9-93BB-235A99C5746A.thumb.gif.bbfdc0f9e47960bb1a323e029e87f807.gif

 

Agree. That 5-8 timeframe is probably the best look we had all winter. The ridge in central Canada moves into Greenland with a decent pacific.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agree. That 5-8 timeframe is probably the best look we had all winter. The ridge in central Canada moves into Greenland with a decent pacific.

I’m willing to bet we’re going to produce during that timeframe :weenie: :snowman:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

If Moscow has really gone 60 consecutive days with AN T's and we are living in a world with a static 30-Year Normal, then the odds of this happening at random must be near 10^17/10^5 or 10^12 to 1 against happening at random.      AN and BN days should average out, right?

This is because 2^60 is of the order 10^17 and there are on the order of 10^4 days in a 30 year period.     This streak could have begun on any one of those days.       And further reduce the now 10^12 by 10^2 for let's say any area on the surface of the earth (comprising 1% of the surface---of course Moscow itself isn't the only area that experienced this event so we include the surroundings)  could have experienced this event.

I am left with 10^10 or 100^9 or   100 Billion to 1 that we should hear about any such event happening anywhere in the world at random.      There must be more reasons to reduce this.  Any thoughts?

Moscow has not had a day with a departure of less than +10 since December 4th. They averaged +14.0 for December, and so far, as of January 25th, they are averaging +21.6 for January. Their January minimum is 20F as of right now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.