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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

how could this be their was no climate change back  in 1936 is it possible temps in winter year to year are variable?

Tex Antoine used to call the 1930's 'the dirty 30's...probably because of the dust storms...1932, 1933 and 1937 had had warm January's and winters...1933-34 to 1935-36 were extremely cold...1934 has NYC's coldest temperature...also the hottest June temperature...1936 still has the hottest temperature recorded in NYC at 106 degrees...

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs gives the whole area several inches next weekend

Need to keep an eye out for a possible transfer further south. If that were the case it would be a MECS for everyone. Still have time for positive trends.

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11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

gfs_asnow_neus_27.png

Whatever that thing is smoking, I want some.  :).  I think overdone, but I can definitely see araa wide a few inches before switch to rain given the track of the SLP at this juncture.  At least we have something to track in the midst of Spring weather in January. 

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1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Whatever that thing is smoking, I want some.  :).  I think overdone, but I can definitely see araa wide a few inches before switch to rain given the track of the SLP at this juncture.  At least we have something to track in the midst of Spring weather in January. 

I would keep an open mind regarding accumulations - that HP to the north is controlling the whole show if a 50/50 develops in front of it the storm could redevelop to the south as demonstrated by yesterdays CMC

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47 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Tex Antoine used to call the 1930's 'the dirty 30's...probably because of the dust storms...1932, 1933 and 1937 had had warm January's and winters...1933-34 to 1935-36 were extremely cold...1934 has NYC's coldest temperature...also the hottest June temperature...1936 still has the hottest temperature recorded in NYC at 106 degrees...

Possibly due to the same things that caused the dustbowl; interesting topic for a dissertation. But it can't be right, as my parents grew up in the 30's and they always told me they walked miles uphill in the deep snow with holes in their shoes to get to school. 

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14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would keep an open mind regarding accumulations - that HP to the north is controlling the whole show if a 50/50 develops in front of it the storm could redevelop to the south as demonstrated by yesterdays CMC

This is also one of the deepest Highs in place ahead of an overrunning event since basically 11/2018.  All events since have more or less flipped to sleet immediately due to the air mass being horrible.   We are still 2 days though from being able to seriously look at this 

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Take a look at how much more amped the ridge ahead  the system is on the 12z CMC and 0z Euro. The 12z UKMET just joined the  12z CMC and 0z Euro.

another reason to keep an open mind - until that stubborn southeast ridge breaks down will be one cutter after another even when it gets colder at least through the end of the month as shown in the longer range on the GFS 12Z - NAO looks to stay positive- AO still stays positive

nao.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gif

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Take a look at how much more amped the ridge ahead  the system is on the 12z CMC and 0z Euro. The 12z UKMET just joined the  12z CMC and 0z Euro.

Yeah, 12z GGEM is mostly rain for NYC. Pattern is just in the process of improving, so it might not be good enough yet to prevent a big cutter and mostly rain. Maybe high pressure will be strong enough to give us a decent front end dump though. Obviously still way too early to know. Precip looks to come in friday night, so I think we'll start getting a better idea tuesday night when we get to the 3 day range.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Take a look at how much more amped the ridge ahead  the system is on the 12z CMC and 0z Euro. The 12z UKMET just joined the  12z CMC and 0z Euro.

Things don't really get more favorable until 1/20 and beyond.

However I still wouldn't rule out a front end dump on the 18th given the strong high ahead of it.

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30 minutes ago, Rjay said:

69 degrees 

67 here and it feels like spring. Just opened all the windows.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

67 here and it feels like spring. Just opened all the windows.

Down to 68 (68.3).  Islip is at 68.  FRG down 1 degree 67.  

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Anyway this warm weather is nice but Saturday looks like a snowstorm to us. Maybe ending as some rain regardless looks like the biggest snowfall of the year let’s gooooo

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6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Record breaker today? 

For the island yes, records shattered 

islip old record was 58, now its 68...the park also set a record. 

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10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

67 here, which is our high for the day and weekend 

I only made it to 59 yesterday 

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9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Anyway this warm weather is nice but Saturday looks like a snowstorm to us. Maybe ending as some rain regardless looks like the biggest snowfall of the year let’s gooooo

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

Saturday never was/is a snowstorm setup south of New England. When the GFS is the only model showing a snowstorm, something is wrong.....

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Saturday never was/is a snowstorm setup south of New England. When the GFS is the only model showing a snowstorm, something is wrong.....

Thank you Captain Obvious. 

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21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Saturday never was/is a snowstorm setup south of New England. When the GFS is the only model showing a snowstorm, something is wrong.....

A few inches isnt out of the question.  Gfs isnt the only one showing that .

 

Euro got colder 

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