nj2va

January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That's not true...but it was a pretty bad run.  It really goes crazy with the ridge in the northeast day 7-11 and its lights out on any chance there.... then there are a scattering of hits in the day 12-15 range but nothing to the level of the GEFS and GEPS.  The pattern looks close enough to workable that it's not out of the question something changes and we sneak a threat in but the last couple EPS runs have not been friendly.  

Do you put a lot of faith into GEFS and GEPS? I feel like it has weenie crushed all winter long. There were a couple really good "false" events it showed and was darn consistent and then got destroyed by the Euro. I feel like at this point it can either prove the Euro wrong for once this winter or the Euro is just that good. I guess time will tell. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mersky said:

some times its all about expectations. Those of us who have many decades under our belts hardly knew what a snowstorm of over 6" was back in most of the 70's and  80's. We enjoyed our 3-6" snowstorms. Now with some blockbuster storms of the 90's and this century most arent happy with them. Always looking for that perfect pattern like 2009-10 that frankly will probably never happen again in our lifetime. And there are some winters like 82-83 that was awful but had one great storm that still is a fond memory of mine. The pattern the next two weeks is much better than anything we have seen this winter but if you are looking for the big dog. you probably are wasting your time. But if you still enjoy smaller snows like were the norm years ago. you might be happy. 

Well stated. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Do you put a lot of faith into GEFS and GEPS? I feel like it has weenie crushed all winter long. There were a couple really good "false" events it showed and was darn consistent and then got destroyed by the Euro. I feel like at this point it can either prove the Euro wrong for once this winter or the Euro is just that good. I guess time will tell. 

I don’t put a lot of faith in anything past day 10. The EPS isn’t great but it’s a small adjustment from either good or bad. There will be adjustments. We will see. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I knew somebody was gonna come back with a cynical batting analogy, lol But think about it...after hitting the equivalent of 5 homers in 2010--but then, look how long it was in between then and 2014! Then boom, boom, boom...three above average winters in a row (with 2016 being a single homer that was a grand slam, lol). So now, here we are, 4 years later...and all it takes is one homerun (we've been here before)

I make the argument that there are other periods in our history where snow lovers could be (and probably were) quite cynical, fearing "oh, it may never snow again" (like the early to mid-70s), and then boom. 1977-78, and 1978-79. Then a big one in 1983. Then a layoff...1986-87. Etc...And the most recent trend is not going more than 4 years without getting a foot. Does that 100% guarantee anything? Not necessarily...but it is the most recent trend, so I'll ride with it unless it breaks! :D Point is...we've been here before!

I have been thinking about this....The first big storm I remember is 1978, when I was 10.  Going years without a big snowstorm is nothing new around here.  09-10 was a miracle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I have been thinking about this....The first big storm I remember is 1978, when I was 10.  Going years without a big snowstorm is nothing new around here.  14-15 was a miracle.

Yeah and getting back-to-back-to-back 30+" seasons was kinda rare too, lol (although some, for some strange reason, like to discount 2016 because it all came at once!). So this snow "drought" really isn't anything major by historical standards!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cfs says mid Feb is worth waiting for 

71155B5F-D5A4-4CD8-A736-CF7D11DEE02C.thumb.png.39361e17eb9179ee24fb9e3b0a4b4527.png

I mean it has to be right eventually 

Calling it now.....The Great VD Storm of 2020! (VD=Valentine's Day not to be confused with Venereal Disease)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Calling it now.....The Great VD Storm of 2020! (VD=Valentine's Day not to be confused with Venereal Disease)

I don't know man...the way this season has gone, you never know!! :lol:

But joking aside, I guess (???) it's nice that the Euro weeklies looked good (according to what @psuhoffman said earlier), and that the CFS keeps indicating a cold February.  We'll see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Only when it depicts a dumpster fire.

Seriously - when was the last time the GFS, EPS, or CFS were even close to being in the ballpark when they showed blocking galore in the long range?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SteveRDU said:

Seriously - when was the last time the GFS, EPS, or CFS were even close to being in the ballpark when they showed blocking galore in the long range?

March 2018. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 2018. 

And that pattern lived up to the hype but it feels like it’s been nothing but massive whiffs ever since.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And that pattern lived up to the hype but it feels like it’s been nothing but massive whiffs ever since.
March 2018 was to much Sun Angle. This year will whiff again and keep chasing until next November

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

March 2018 was to much Sun Angle. This year will whiff again and keep chasing until next November

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

“Whiff again?”  What exactly are you chasing?  March 2018 produced a warning level snowfall. Last year was a near normal snow year with several snowfalls. So what is the “again”?  Or do you mean you are chasing the rare winter like 1996/2003/2010/2014 when it snows easy and often. If so yea this probably ain’t it.  But is there a good chance it will snow again some this year...yea. Some of us are chasing that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

“Whiff again?”  What exactly are you chasing?  March 2018 produced a warning level snowfall. Last year was a near normal snow year with several snowfalls. So what is the “again”?  Or do you mean you are chasing the rare winter like 1996/2003/2010/2014 when it snows easy and often. If so yea this probably ain’t it.  But is there a good chance it will snow again some this year...yea. Some of us are chasing that. 

i think one day we will look at 2018-2019 and say it was a good winter. We had one of our snowiest Januarys in a long time and there was multiple events. Feb sucked but Jan was great

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s an op at super long range but the gfs is the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen at day 15. 

D86C90ED-BD68-47D4-AABE-A75AF547823B.thumb.png.b63711ceae88fa7051872779590d5249.png

Just over 24 hours ago was that epic double hit snow run. This one has no more chance of being right. Let’s hope 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s an op at super long range but the gfs is the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen at day 15. 

D86C90ED-BD68-47D4-AABE-A75AF547823B.thumb.png.b63711ceae88fa7051872779590d5249.png

Just over 24 hours ago was that epic double hit snow run. This one has no more chance of being right. Let’s hope 

LOL--PV in alaska with the most severe AO and NAO of all time but we got a PNA!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ji said:

i think one day we will look at 2018-2019 and say it was a good winter. We had one of our snowiest Januarys in a long time and there was multiple events. Feb sucked but Jan was great

I mostly missed that Jan storm. My 2 biggest snows were the November snow and the March one. But your point is legit. I liked 2018 better though. The 6” in mid December was nice and kind of a surprise. There was a super cold clipper storm in January. One half decent snow in February and then I ended the year with a bang in March. 3 accumulating snows and one of them 14” that stayed otg a week even late March . I ended that winter feeling really satisfied.  I had almost identical totals both years but last year felt “empty” for some reason. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:

LOL--PV in alaska with the most severe AO and NAO of all time but we got a PNA!

The only saving grace there would be hints the NAM state is flipping. Build the heights more over the top into GL and displace the trough out of the high latitudes and it could get better. But by then it’s mid Feb. let’s just hope that run smoked some funky stuff. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hard to tell because the North american map hasnt loaded but there looks to be a trough in the east. gfs-ens_z500a_us_55.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Ji said:

but...

gfs-ens_z500a_ak_55.png

Naw at the end it’s heading the same way the eps and weeklies are.

904AE86C-44B1-4FBB-A03A-AF022DB74546.thumb.png.4079f270609ba96e874a496ad4f2b56c.png

And that’s not bad. But it sucks we might have to wait. Sucks more if it’s wrong and the op gfs is how this goes...

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not much to look forward to the next two weeks looking at the overnight model runs. The ICON has hinted at a storm off the east coast around the 22nd but at H5 the ridging is in the middle of the country. Now if we could just move it westward around 800 miles.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Starting to get an uneasy feeling about the remainder of January.  This look looks awfully familiar.  More troughs on the west coast and not even a hint of help on the Atlantic side.  Let's hope the GEFS/GEPS are correct for the period after day ten but the EPS has been degrading for the last several runs.

EPS 10 Day.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.