• Member Statistics

    15,753
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    queenofscience
    Newest Member
    queenofscience
    Joined
nj2va

January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

Recommended Posts

11 hours ago, Mersky said:

I challenge any of you to go back and look at what your weather was in January 2010 mid month. It was very warm and dry and I recall people canceling winter then too. What followed was one of the greatest periods in history. I am not saying a repeat of that is coming. Sure maybe it warms up mid January. Hell it warms up every January. But before then a legit period of cold and maybe snow happens and after it  we have late January, February and March yet. 

I'm mostly a lurker, but I will take this challenge. Back on EasternWX in those days, two of the most knowledgeable and most conservative posters, Don S and Usedtobe, were both quite firm all along that the warm early January pattern would be anomalous and we would return to cold and snow. Others may well have been in the same camp, but it was very unusual for both of them them to be so optimistically certain, so I actually emailed some "pro-snow" friends to say that the best minds were convinced that better times were coming. In certain situations, the good ones, and psu is certainly among them, can read the tea leaves well beyond 10 days.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote
13 hours ago, Mersky said:

I challenge any of you to go back and look at what your weather was in January 2010 mid month. It was very warm and dry and I recall people canceling winter then too. What followed was one of the greatest periods in history. I am not saying a repeat of that is coming. Sure maybe it warms up mid January. Hell it warms up every January. But before then a legit period of cold and maybe snow happens and after it  we have late January, February and March yet. 

Here you go

image.thumb.png.f5d7ba17c73702172b1b805eeb877e5b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, yoda said:

Swing and a miss Day 9 into Day 10 on the coastal low... but decent cold air abounds on the 00z Euro tonight

So the EURO has a Gulf lp move to off the NC coast and then out to sea. Anyone see the EPS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely not much to sugar coat in the long range.  After about a 4 day window of below normal temps next week, about as dismal a pattern showing up on both the EPS and GEFS (I know I am not saying much different than most have been).  Let's hope something works out next week.  

273848128_EPS360.thumb.png.8d07d43d1b34845d1137ece9ae973450.png

EPS has a smattering of hits but the mean is mostly skewed by a couple bigger storms.279439207_EPSJan8th.thumb.png.99f6164e87e33bbb83856fab6711d749.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

(man, I hope we can benefit from the solar minimum next year if we can't this year...provided something else in the atmosphere doesn't screw that up too) 

A wag that the NAO may be more conducive next year to negative phases, also we will be fully established with the QBO. I know Isotherm mentioned the NAO being more receptive to - phases after the solar min, target date 4/2020 . multi year SST lag to NAO domain  would be two years. I also read from Isotherm we have an issue currently as well in regards to ozone concentration and the NAO domain. The context he mentioned it escapes me at the moment. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BristowWx said:

Lets hope that trough in the west rolls east after that and we can reshuffle the deck.  you never know.

That blocking ridge in the Pac looks legit and stable on the means. At some point the pattern will break down. Hopefully we don't waste most of Jan in the process.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Definitely not much to sugar coat in the long range.  After about a 4 day window of below normal temps next week, about as dismal a pattern showing up on both the EPS and GEFS (I know I am not saying much different than most have been).  Let's hope something works out next week.

That depiction is right along the time lines of @40/70 Benchmark, and @psuhoffman. The issues with the Pacific ridge and its location goes back to last winter. 

Nothing new to add. I don't care what others might say that there are differences elsewhere,  that set-up is a HUGE issue and brings the SE and WAR to play. 

Combine that with a very +AO and a deeply -PNA and it is very frustrating. 

Maybe things progress later in the month, but I believe any change to better will be gradual and no one should except a sudden flip.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That blocking ridge in the Pac looks legit and stable on the means. At some point the pattern will break down. Hopefully we don't waste most of Jan in the process.

If you loop the ens means that central Pac ridge looks like the storm on Jupiter. It never moves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That blocking ridge in the Pac looks legit and stable on the means. At some point the pattern will break down. Hopefully we don't waste most of Jan in the process.

well if it's stable and that time stamp is 14 Jan...that's half the month.  still the optimistic side of me thinks it will turn around or we will see a totally different look come next week.  hope is not a plan but despair is not either. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, frd said:

That depiction is right along the time lines of @40/70 Benchmark, and @psuhoffman. The issues with the Pacific ridge and its location goes back to last winter. 

Nothing new to add. I don't care what others might say that there are differences elsewhere,  that set-up is a HUGE issue and brings the SE and WAR to play. 

Combine that with a very +AO and a deeply -PNA and it is very frustrating. 

Maybe things progress later in the month, but I believe any change to better will be gradual and no one should except a sudden flip.  

Definitely not transient as it locks in basically right after our brief window next week.  I am still optimistic that we can salvage some kind of winter stretch once we break the massive +ao/nao combo.  Hopefully some signs start showing up in the next week or so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If you loop the ens means that central Pac ridge looks like the storm on Jupiter. It never moves.

And that's the big problem with the pattern, the ridge position and the location of the max positive anomaly within it.  It's not favorable for moving the trough in the west.  Of course,  the ensemble mean still could be wrong way out there in fantasy land but if it is mostly right and we don't get a hit in the cold window earlier in the month, we probably are screwed through mid January.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That blocking ridge in the Pac looks legit and stable on the means. At some point the pattern will break down. Hopefully we don't waste most of Jan in the process.

At the risk of more wrath I’ll say this...history suggests when an an extremely anomalous ridge develops there in January it persists in the means a long time. Most times through the rest of winter. It makes sense. To get a ridge of that magnitude takes strong forcing and it’s unlikeky the base state causing it breaks down completely that fast. Just like extremely anomalous blocking periods in the AO/NAO portent a seasonal repeat/recycle a ridge there is the same. What’s worse is the extreme positive AO in early Jan also portends persistence. 

Here is what has me spooked. This was last year once the pac pattern settled in early January. 

C864300F-2122-400B-946B-D6DC3A3418E7.gif.9a1f17a88e5a9c9e6d8fde4853430ab3.gif

What prevented a dumpster fire winter was that we got a couple snows early January during a transition period before that locked in (seems we have the same chance this year except I’m not bullish on the setup. Last year we had a better HL pattern. But after that we had some HL help. There was persistent ridging over the top from the eastern epo to west NAO domain. It was never the full on epic blocking the models showed from long range but it was enough to suppress the SE ridge some. But for a ridge west of the pac coast to work history suggests the NAO blocking needs to be equally anomalous to the pac ridge. The stronger the pac ridge the more blocking we need. 

Right now that ridge looks the same as last year. I kind of expected that. But the problem is I actually expected more NAO help than last year. We are closer to solar min, favorable QBO projections, and a favorable North Pac and Atlantic SST argued for a -NAO year.  But reality is starting to show that to be less likely each passing day. If we get last years pac with less NAO help it won’t be pretty. The analogs to that pac pattern with a +NAO are a horror show of our worst winters.  To be blunt what I’m seeing is the absolute worst look I would want to see for our winter prospects.  I know me saying this makes me public enemy number one...and I’ll let this post serve as my final word/warning on this.  I’ve laid out my rationale and evidence.  Nothing more to say.

The obligatory silver lining is guidance could still be wrong. The NAO could still flip. It’s rare but not impossible. And even if our worst fears come to be there will be periods of waxing and waning of that ridge where a brief window opens and we could get lucky and score a fluke.  And lastly several of the bad analogs did turn snowy in March. Seems with shorter wavelengths late that ridge is less hostile to our snow chances. So even if we head into late winter in bad shape we could at least get one fluke snowstorm at the end.  1960 was the most extreme example of that...however signs of blocking were showing up way before late winter that year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

At the risk of more wrath I’ll say this...history suggests when an an extremely anomalous ridge develops there in January it persists in the means a long time. Most times through the rest of winter. It makes sense. To get a ridge of that magnitude takes sting forcing and it’s unlikeky the base state causing it breaks down completely that fast. Just like extremely anomalous blocking periods in the AO/NAO portent a seasonal repeat/recycle a ridge there is the same. What’s worse is the extreme positive AO in early Jan also portends persistence. 

Here is what has me spooked. This was last year once the pac pattern settled in early January. 

C864300F-2122-400B-946B-D6DC3A3418E7.gif.9a1f17a88e5a9c9e6d8fde4853430ab3.gif

What prevented a dumpster fire winter was that we got a couple snows early January during a transition period before that locked in (seems we have the same chance this year except I’m not bullish on the setup. Last year we had a better HL pattern. But after that we had some HL help. There was persistent ridging over the top from the eastern epo to west NAO domain. It was never the full on epic blocking the models showed from long range but it was enough to suppress the SE ridge some. But for a ridge west of the pac coast to work history suggests the NAO blocking needs to be equally anomalous to the pac ridge. The stronger the pac ridge the more blocking we need. 

Right now that ridge looks the same as last year. I kind of expected that. But the problem is I actually expected more NAO help than last year. We are closer to solar min, favorable QBO projections, and a favorable North Pac and Atlantic SST argued for a -NAO year.  But reality is starting to show that to be less likely each passing day. If we get last years pac with less NAO help it won’t be pretty. The analogs to that pac pattern with a +NAO are a horror show of our worst winters.  To be blunt what I’m seeing is the absolute worst look I would want to see for our winter prospects.  I know me saying this makes me public enemy number one...and I’ll let this post serve as my final word/warning on this.  I’ve laid out my rationale and evidence.  Nothing more to say.

The obligatory silver lining is guidance could still be wrong. The NAO could still flip. It’s rare but not impossible. And even if our worst fears come to be there will be periods of waxing and waning of that ridge where a brief window opens and we could get lucky and score a fluke.  And lastly several of the bad analogs did turn snowy in March. Seems with shorter wavelengths late that ridge is less hostile to our snow chances. So even if we head into late winter in bad shape we could at least get one fluke snowstorm at the end.  1960 was the most extreme example of that...however signs of blocking were showing up way before late winter that year. 

For now I will hang my hat on the CFS weeklies. Starts to shift the long wave pattern around the 20th to a gradient look, then develops a favorable EPO ridge and deep trough in the east into Feb. With a +NAO it would probably feature NW tracking lows followed by cold/dry. :weenie:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

For now I will hang my hat on the CFS weeklies. Starts to shift the long wave pattern around the 20th to a gradient look, then develops a favorable EPO ridge and deep trough in the east into Feb. With a +NAO it would probably feature NW tracking lows followed by cold/dry. :weenie:

I can’t wait. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

At the risk of more wrath I’ll say this...history suggests when an an extremely anomalous ridge develops there in January it persists in the means a long time. Most times through the rest of winter. It makes sense. To get a ridge of that magnitude takes sting forcing and it’s unlikeky the base state causing it breaks down completely that fast. Just like extremely anomalous blocking periods in the AO/NAO portent a seasonal repeat/recycle a ridge there is the same. What’s worse is the extreme positive AO in early Jan also portends persistence. 

Here is what has me spooked. This was last year once the pac pattern settled in early January. 

C864300F-2122-400B-946B-D6DC3A3418E7.gif.9a1f17a88e5a9c9e6d8fde4853430ab3.gif

What prevented a dumpster fire winter was that we got a couple snows early January during a transition period before that locked in (seems we have the same chance this year except I’m not bullish on the setup. Last year we had a better HL pattern. But after that we had some HL help. There was persistent ridging over the top from the eastern epo to west NAO domain. It was never the full on epic blocking the models showed from long range but it was enough to suppress the SE ridge some. But for a ridge west of the pac coast to work history suggests the NAO blocking needs to be equally anomalous to the pac ridge. The stronger the pac ridge the more blocking we need. 

Right now that ridge looks the same as last year. I kind of expected that. But the problem is I actually expected more NAO help than last year. We are closer to solar min, favorable QBO projections, and a favorable North Pac and Atlantic SST argued for a -NAO year.  But reality is starting to show that to be less likely each passing day. If we get last years pac with less NAO help it won’t be pretty. The analogs to that pac pattern with a +NAO are a horror show of our worst winters.  To be blunt what I’m seeing is the absolute worst look I would want to see for our winter prospects.  I know me saying this makes me public enemy number one...and I’ll let this post serve as my final word/warning on this.  I’ve laid out my rationale and evidence.  Nothing more to say.

The obligatory silver lining is guidance could still be wrong. The NAO could still flip. It’s rare but not impossible. And even if our worst fears come to be there will be periods of waxing and waning of that ridge where a brief window opens and we could get lucky and score a fluke.  And lastly several of the bad analogs did turn snowy in March. Seems with shorter wavelengths late that ridge is less hostile to our snow chances. So even if we head into late winter in bad shape we could at least get one fluke snowstorm at the end.  1960 was the most extreme example of that...however signs of blocking were showing up way before late winter that year. 

I hear you...and I appreciate your last few posts and the time/effort you put into the research.  I dont disagree with anything you said and the Pac ridge is a dagger without help elsewhere but from my perspective it comes as no surprise if the MJO is going right into the warm phases.  Not that I saw that happening...I actually thought we had a good chance at cold phases for Jan.  I understand the MJO is not the be all and end all but the Pac is responding just as it did last year to the unfavorable tropical forcing. 

So, with that said the only thing I might have an issue with is describing the upcoming pattern as a base state....seems like this year has no base state, imo. The silver lining here is that I think we are primed for a rapid response if we can get into the cold phases...as you noted, with the low solar, fav QBO and already seeing bouts of HLB this season.  With the warm phases hopefully doing their work to disrupt the PV I think we could see that Pac ridge move east around week 3/4.  Going to be a rough couple of weeks...or more. But nothing new to a MA snow lover.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can’t wait. 

St Patrick's Day and Easter will rock! That is, if the progression happens as some are suggesting. Grass is shooting up here past few days and weeds sprouting. Might be time for the mower and weedwhacker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@psuhoffman

Why are you apologizing? Thread is about discussion on the weather/models both good and bad. You are only stating what is staring us in the face and has been for a couple of weeks now. You know me, Glass Half full, Mr positive when I am discussing the weather. Well even I have struggled for awhile now to find positives on what we are/have been seeing. Hell, this morning about the only positive thing I could think of to say was, "Maybe the models are wrong?'. So keep doing what you do and though it might not be what people want to hear your logic/knowledge is sound (same goes with Chill). 

I myself am going to give it another couple/few days of runs in the hopes of seeing something positive otherwise I am probably going to call it as far as the first half of winter. Maybe even take another semi-break from the boards and the models for a couple of weeks. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Decent vort pass in the wake of the Saturday cutter on the Gfs . Maybe it might initiate  some snow showers Late Saturday night  early Sunday am:weenie:

I noticed that but didn't want to mention.  h5 didn't look as impressive as I thought it would but at first glance it looked like a closed upper low. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@psuhoffman Yeah man you don't have to sugarcoat anything...just calling it as you see it. Yes, it sucks that things are setting up this way...but there's no need to shoot the messenger. I mean...personally, if we gotta punt half or more of winter away I'd much rather know it now and just snow-grieve the loss than have the heightened expectations we had going into last year. Will be nice to just be surprised in a good way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No sugarcoating here. This winter sucks and there is very little hope. Last winter was so much better and that sucked too

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Decent vort pass in the wake of the Saturday cutter on the Gfs . Maybe it might initiate  some snow showers Late Saturday night  early Sunday am:weenie:

 

42 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I noticed that but didn't want to mention.  h5 didn't look as impressive as I thought it would but at first glance it looked like a closed upper low. 

If that upper low pass on the gfs is correct we would likely have at the least some bands of snow showers in the area. But that’s a big if. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Ji said:

No sugarcoating here. This winter sucks and there is very little hope. Last winter was so much better and that sucked too

Last winter completely sucked. Go back and look at your comments last year.   I would suggest that this winter is much better considering it is not even January 1st and there is always hope.  Even if we punt the next 2 weeks, there is still time for things to change.  The long-term modeling has proven to be awful lately, so there is still time for things to turn around.  I am always the optimist.  Sorry for the bit of banter.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I find it interesting, in a masochistic way, that the models, especially the EPS but all of them to some extent, have been able to zero in on our fail patterns super far out.  Impressive work on their part.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well, I find it interesting, in a masochistic way, that the models, especially the EPS but all of them to some extent, have been able to zero in on our fail patterns super far out.  Impressive work on their part.

Not impressive at all when 80% of the time we are in a fail pattern.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not impressive at all when 80% of the time we are in a fail pattern.

Ensembles have done an excellent job this year. There has only been one notable time where things made a big shift in the medium range and that was the brief -AO/NAO period we just had. That sorta popped up unexpectedly. Other than that d10-15 has done quite well. Especially since mid Dec. People who don't think models have any accuracy beyond 5-7 days are flat wrong this year. EPS has been killing it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ensembles have done an excellent job this year. There has only been one notable time where things made a big shift in the medium range and that was the brief -AO/NAO period we just had. That sorta popped up unexpectedly. Other than that d10-15 has done quite well. Especially since mid Dec. People who don't think models have any accuracy beyond 5-7 days are flat wrong this year. EPS has been killing it. 

I was just being facetious. We are in fail mode by default lol.

I am always impressed by the ens guidance in general inside 10 days. Especially useful when there is a less stable/predictable pattern- i.e higher uncertainty- where the op runs alone can be nearly useless due to the run to run variability.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.