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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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Just now, Amped said:

Looks like every model agrees there's going to be a band of heavy snow in NNJ or somewhere near the NY/NJ border.

Yea seems like Northern NJ and the HV are consistently being shown to do really well on Monday 

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Just now, Nibor said:

I’ve noticed and I think it was mentioned in the New England forum that there’s some sort of random blob of heavy precipitation that keeps popping up near NYC as the low tracks just to the south. Any idea what is causing that on the models?

Given the location of the low it's where the CCB would be RGEM run after run shows it. GFS was at it as well yesterday. 

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6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Given the location of the low it's where the CCB would be RGEM run after run shows it. GFS was at it as well yesterday. 

Yeah I believe its just the fact that many model runs of the various suites have had the low about 50-80 miles ESE of NYC.  In that setup in a closed off system the heavy snow band will sit about 70-90 miles W of the low

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

sn10_acc.us_city_nyc-1.png

That’s some cut off around the Queens - Nassau border up through Eastern Westchester and Putnam. Would be odd for Danbury to get less than Manhattan - I guess this is where the CCB would be parking itself?

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2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

That’s some cut off around the Queens - Nassau border up through Eastern Westchester and Putnam. Would be odd for Danbury to get less than Manhattan - I guess this is where the CCB would be parking itself?

If Manhattan/Queens get more snow from this then Northeast Westchester and interior CT I will be pretty shocked, it's possible if the banding goes right over the city but very unlikely in an early December storm with this type of synoptic setup

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Interesting now a West vs East gradient as opposed to north vs south. Very different from previous runs.

Looks to be due to where the back end snow band sets up. Hopefully for MBY it shifts East a little more. Round 1 won’t be a big producer unless you’re way north, so we’re mostly waiting for what the second part does. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

This one has big bust potential written all over it with so many moving parts.

this would be a slam dunk with a better airmass

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This one has big bust potential written all over it with so many moving parts.

This storm honestly is giving me a headache, I really don't like the setup for the coast but I can also see how it can turn out well if everything falls into place. 

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3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this would be a slam dunk with a better airmass

I'm not so sure because if the system develops slower/closes off slower there would be no CCB or heavy snow on the NW side anyway. 

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9 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Of both the high and low variety I would say

That’s for sure. All dependent on location. Hopefully, the uncertainty gets conveyed in the forecasts. Get ready for nowcast time.;)

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm not so sure because if the system develops slower/closes off slower there would be no CCB or heavy snow on the NW side anyway. 

the mid level tracks are great for us

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