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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
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The models have no idea where to stall and occlude this storm.  They won’t for some time. The only thing that you should be looking at right now is the strength of the high and the initial front end thump.  Everything besides that is no where near locked. Anything is still on the table really.q

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Forget about the initial WAA precip unless you’re well inland-it’ll be an hour or two of non-rain that gets washed away. That part’s for SNE. Essentially it’ll act like most SWFEs act here. What makes or breaks it for 80% of this sub forum is what happens behind the low and where/whether the CCB develops. This hasn’t really changed in 36 hours now. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Forget about the initial WAA precip unless you’re well inland-it’ll be an hour or two of non-rain that gets washed away. That part’s for SNE. Essentially it’ll act like most SWFEs act here. What makes or breaks it for 80% of this sub forum is what happens behind the low and where/whether the CCB develops. This hasn’t really changed in 36 hours now. 

Unless the models are not seeing the low level cold air in place which happens alot. Nam will become useful for that.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Agree with you. The GFS still has a few inches for the city but once the storm blows up, it still show rain which is wrong.

Everyone with a brain knew the 18z 15 inch blob over NYC wasn’t gonna stay.  It was a random band that even the HRRR couldn’t pinpoint in real time. But no reason to give up either.  As I said above models are going to have a rough time pinpointing where this is going to stall and occlude. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Forget about the initial WAA precip unless you’re well inland-it’ll be an hour or two of non-rain that gets washed away. That part’s for SNE. Essentially it’ll act like most SWFEs act here. What makes or breaks it for 80% of this sub forum is what happens behind the low and where/whether the CCB develops. This hasn’t really changed in 36 hours now. 

Exactly. There is a 3-6 hour window of potential snow for majority on this board. I'm thinking little to accumulation for city, especially with wet streets and temp at 34. 

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8 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Funny how some people write off people with credentials these days just because they don’t tell them what they want to hear. I’m hearing many Mets optimistic yet admitting they may still have to go way down or up on totals as we continue to see how this progresses. 

It's not just some people; wide swaths of society are guilty of it. If the experts here are unsure, then I am certainly not going to buy into anything until more information is obtained. I'd say to be ready for some bad travel weather, but not lose too much sleep over it just yet in my region ( and maybe yours ).

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13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Unlike many people these days, I tend to defer to expertise. You've got credentials, and in legal speak, your expert opinion is given great weight...

You mean you actually listen when someone who has studied something talks about what they have studied? How could you. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Forget about the initial WAA precip unless you’re well inland-it’ll be an hour or two of non-rain that gets washed away. That part’s for SNE. Essentially it’ll act like most SWFEs act here. What makes or breaks it for 80% of this sub forum is what happens behind the low and where/whether the CCB develops. This hasn’t really changed in 36 hours now. 

It's not as warm as people think, outside of the GFS the freezing line is dangling just north of the city on a lot of models. I wouldn't expect snow but sleet or at least mixing with sleet could hang on longer than expected.

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1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

You mean you actually listen when someone who has studied something talks about what they have studied? How could you. 

How quaint, I know.....I often ask people like this if they refuse to believe their own physician when told they have a serious condition that has to be treated......

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9 minutes ago, Enigma said:

Exactly. There is a 3-6 hour window of potential snow for majority on this board. I'm thinking little to accumulation for city, especially with wet streets and temp at 34. 

Given the present set up, I would agree with you that this is the correct call. That withstanding, I believe there is the potential for some surprises, especially given the energy around and the possibility of the LP closing off. Should this take place, there is the distinct possibility the tri-state area takes a hard hit IMO. 

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It's not as warm as people think, outside of the GFS the freezing line is dangling just north of the city on a lot of models. I wouldn't expect snow but sleet or at least mixing with sleet could hang on longer than expected.

You’re right, with the high to the north, cold surface air could hang on for a while for some ZR/sleet potential for a few hours. The snow potential would be brief though-all models have the mid level warmth coming in fast. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Forget about the initial WAA precip unless you’re well inland-it’ll be an hour or two of non-rain that gets washed away. That part’s for SNE. Essentially it’ll act like most SWFEs act here. What makes or breaks it for 80% of this sub forum is what happens behind the low and where/whether the CCB develops. This hasn’t really changed in 36 hours now. 

I find the following tends to happen:

-Gfs thermals are too warm at the onset of a storm. Toss

-Initial thump of snow is stronger than modeled. But,

-Midlevels warm up quicker than modeled. So a satisfying quick couple of inches than the ice/rain junk 

-But after that is sort of a wild card. I can’t recall a recent storm that stalled/occluded like this. I’m not confident in how quickly temps crash nor the amount of precip that is around when they do. My gut says they crash quick but precip drys quicker than we hope, but I could be wrong.

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1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

I find the following tends to happen:

-Gfs thermals are too warm at the onset of a storm. Toss

-Initial thump of snow is stronger than modeled. But,

-Midlevels warm up quicker than modeled. So a satisfying quick couple of inches than the ice/rain junk 

-But after that is sort of a wild card. I can’t recall a recent storm that stalled/occluded like this. I’m not confident in how quickly temps crash nor the amount of precip that is around when they do. My gut says they crash quick but precip drys quicker than we hope, but I could be wrong.

I can't remember ever really seeing a storm like this in terms of the stalling low and the 30+ consecutive hours of precip so that part is a real wildcard. My hunch is if the snow is heavy temps will fall below freezing but if it stays light it will stay above freezing and not accumulate in the city.

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

I can't remember ever really seeing a storm like this in terms of the stalling low and the 30+ consecutive hours of precip so that part is a real wildcard. My hunch is if the snow is heavy temps will fall below freezing but if it stays light it will stay above freezing and not accumulate in the city.

The marginal temps (and lack of a truly cold antecedent airmass) are keeping me from being optimistic about this storm in the city. Unless the CCB parks overhead like the NAM showed we're going to struggle to get more than a slushy coating anywhere. Even in the NAM scenario we'll lose quite a bit of QPF to melting on contact. 6" is the absolute ceiling for the city IMO (not including the park where melt is less of an issue).

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16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

You’re right, with the high to the north, cold surface air could hang on for a while for some ZR/sleet potential for a few hours. The snow potential would be brief though-all models have the mid level warmth coming in fast. 

Also along with the CAD would be the wind direction. A more north to south vs a flow from the northeast could also make a difference. Forecast lows for my area tomorrow night is 22. We'll see how the timing works out for cloud cover for Sat night and Sunday which will have an effect on surface temperatures.

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Just now, kingbaus said:

GEM looks good for SNE

They’ve been locked in for at least a good event for 2-3 days. The upper air evolution is a classic for them. The here and there bumps would eventually work out for them as long as that lasted. I-90 Albany and East (maybe Syracuse and East) should average 12” right to Boston, maybe 18” in favored upslope spots on the easterly flow. Their climo is what it is for a reason. Sucks for down here but whatever we get will be good for beginning of December regardless, and there’s a slight chance of a surprise if the CCB does blow up. 

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