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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks. That map looks totally reasonable overall . Give or take an inch . I bet that includes a few inches of sleet in places 

So that’s one thing I was thinking.... those snow maps don’t include sleet in their totals, only precip coded as snow.  

You could add 2-3” of sleet to the snow totals the models show.  Like if that 3KM NAM has 2-3” of snow, that might be 4-6” of overall accumulation on like 1” water....it won’t add those inches of sleet in.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Will you sneak in a few Dilf’s beds in neighborhood and tickle any pickles?

I'm was hoping plows would actually Plow route 3 so i could do the same to my Milf but either way i'll do better snow wise here then KBED

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Just now, powderfreak said:

So that’s one thing I was thinking.... those snow maps don’t include sleet in their totals, only precip coded as snow.  

You could add 2-3” of sleet to the snow totals the models show.  Like if that 3KM NAM has 2-3” of snow, that might be 4-6” of overall accumulation on like 1” water....it won’t add those inches of sleet in.

We will easily have 1-3” of sleet in N CT. Already like an inch of it on top of the snow 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We will easily have 1-3” of sleet in N CT. Already like an inch of it on top of the snow 

Yup that's what I was thinking.  Even with some small snow grains mixed in and stuff, probably could put 2-3" of very dense white material down.

This time of year, just get the QPF frozen and on the ground.  Makes for a great base and very torch resistant.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Yup that's what I was thinking.  Even with some small snow grains mixed in and stuff, probably could put 2-3" of very dense white material down.

This time of year, just get the QPF frozen and on the ground.  Makes for a great base and very torch resistant.

With a fairly wintry next 14 days. And one or two more threats next 10 days.. will be a nice holiday vibe after countless awful December’s 

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3 minutes ago, SnowBrosForever said:

Snow just started falling out here on Long Island, 6 miles NE of PWM. Assume other frequent lurkers in SoPo & Scarborough already underway. NWS did back off onite proj to <1", but adds some at the end.

Yup, coating the roads of Munjoy Hill

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With a fairly wintry next 14 days. And one or two more threats next 10 days.. will be a nice holiday vibe after countless awful December’s 

I thought most models had some pretty significant cutters coming up?

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45 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The real thump is with that stuff moving in now. I do have some questions as to how far north it makes it, but our warning area looks pretty solid.

Actually...now the northern edge just 20 miles south of me seems to be eroding.  Oy...

Measured 1.5" in like 5 spots at 8:30 fyi

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With a fairly wintry next 14 days. And one or two more threats next 10 days.. will be a nice holiday vibe after countless awful December’s 

I'm confused, it looks fairly torchy in the LR after this week. I hope it is wrong, but that big AO spike does match with the timing. Let's hope it gets muted as my nephew would love to ice skate again on a pond at Christmas time when he comes up from the south. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

NAm is pretty good here and through CT for round 2. Good dynamics.

so close Scott to MUCH more. Nam has actually been pretty similiar for last 3 runs with E MA snows from round 2. IT has sort of increased CT's snow from round 2 and kept ours the same last run

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

NAm is pretty good here and through CT for round 2. Good dynamics.

Wish the EPS had some of that. 18z run didn't have any big solutions like that. 

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Actually...now the northern edge just 20 miles south of me seems to be eroding.  Oy...

Measured 1.5" in like 5 spots at 8:30 fyi

Yeah, models were forecasting that WAA punch to really slow down as the mid level lows start developing and the SW flow shuts off.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAm is pretty good here and through CT for round 2. Good dynamics.

That is reassuring for many given that the NAM has a reputation for being pretty good in these kind of scenarios in the short term yes?  And it has more recent data than the last EC.

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