RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: We don’t have KUs in NNE. i’ve learned to deal with it. I guess I say KU’s as a short way of saying ‘big system’. I never view it as a mass population kind of thing because all weenies lives matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Congrats James on the 12z Nam. He’s still recovering from his paralyzing blizzard last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: We don’t have KUs in NNE. i’ve learned to deal with it. Yeah, If the major cities on the east coast end up with a KU, We are shut out up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: He’s still recovering from his paralyzing blizzard last week. Wouldn't shock me though if he would end up with the most snow from this, Eastern areas look to be favored while there is still moisture left, Comes down to timing though getting the colder air in while its still overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wouldn't shock me though if he would end up with the most snow from this, Eastern areas look to be favored while there is still moisture left, Comes down to timing though getting the colder air in while its still overhead. I think ORH jacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Those linear demarcations are probably just terrain enhancements ...heh whatever - But, I was looking over the bevy of disappointing runs from overnight and it does occur to me, that if that lead S/W ejecting off the Pacific in that quasi-zonal flow out west happens to become dominant ( 12z Wed through the Rockies ...), more so than the trialing mechanics, that would encourage a colder solution along the eastern seaboard. The N/Stream is dominant ...then, rather convenient to the warmer solutions as of late, it suddenly pulls NE with rapidity.. That may happen, but ..if the lead S/W is stronger underneath ( before that escape happens ) that would push up the timing of an eastern seaboard cyclone chance, when there is still cold banked in there. It's wishy washy... but it's your only hope if that thing doesn't somehow end up more marginal - which is a different low probability outcome in its own rights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The notion of differentiating coast/inland/elevation seems odd to me...I think Scott mentioned that too. Cold air arrives uniformly...the problem is more regarding how much QPF occurs on the colder side and how much lift we have to work with. the coast isn't going to get shutout b/c they're...on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: The notion of differentiating coast/inland/elevation seems odd to me...I think Scott mentioned that too. Cold air arrives uniformly...the problem is more regarding how much QPF occurs on the colder side and how much lift we have to work with. the coast isn't going to get shutout b/c they're...on the coast. Yea, well Cranky is pretty bad. Pay no attention. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Should be a fair amount of yard ponding by late afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The notion of differentiating coast/inland/elevation seems odd to me...I think Scott mentioned that too. Cold air arrives uniformly...the problem is more regarding how much QPF occurs on the colder side and how much lift we have to work with. the coast isn't going to get shutout b/c they're...on the coast. I think elevation could initially help expedite accumulations a bit over ORH hills... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Should be a fair amount of yard ponding by late afternoon.. In my case, basement ponding. We also have some ice jams up on our roof at home. I tried going at it with the snow rake on Saturday but it looks problematic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 BOX map for posterity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think elevation could initially help expedite accumulations a bit over ORH hills... Fair point...I agree. (I'll admit I wasn't entirely incorporating that area into my post). That area I think should be favored anyways when talking about potential for 2-4''+ of accumulation. Typically with how things evolve in these situations just seem to favor those areas. Also looks like drier air is a bit slower to work that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Fair point...I agree. (I'll admit I wasn't entirely incorporating that area into my post). That area I think should be favored anyways when talking about potential for 2-4''+ of accumulation. Typically with how things evolve in these situations just seem to favor those areas. Also looks like drier air is a bit slower to work that far east. Yup...topography should marginally assist in availing of most ample mositure/cold nexus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yup...topography should marginally assist in availing of most ample mositure/cold nexus. I still have to read your winter outlook. Have to set myself a reminder. Always enjoy reading your outlooks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/snowy-am-commute-wednesday-possible.html 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Good call I think at this time. I was thinking same map, Ray drew it for me, great minds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 12z RPM way east now. Basically not much NW of BDL-ORH-LWM FWIW. My guess is GFS may tick east too, or at least lessen frozen QPF anyways. These things are a PITA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Ray went from arrows to not incorporating state lines. Looking forward to the next one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I still have to read your winter outlook. Have to set myself a reminder. Always enjoy reading your outlooks. It’s a great read and all the more impressive how it was done while feeding, burping, and wiping baby fannies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Reggie looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Actually 12z Reggie more bullish vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Can this flash freeze before it starts snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a great read and all the more impressive how it was done while feeding, burping, and wiping baby fannies. He has great writing skills/ability. You add that to his wealth of knowledge and his method of presentation...and it creates a must read label for anyone interested in weather. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 38 in Nashua do I lose it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Can this flash freeze before it starts snowing? Ask cranky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Someone needs to tell me how the gfs is spitting out this precip with a RH at 850mb of less than 20%. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Rain, 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Someone needs to tell me how the gfs is spitting out this precip with a RH at 850mb of less than 20%. the algorithm was changed to yield precip with RH values >1% so the snow maps can still yield an output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ask cranky Since you guys are best pals, what did he say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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