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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

6-7 days out is basically weenie tag territory...or used to be.

All we can say is there's a decent chance of storm system nearby, but hard to say much else beyond that.

 

This forum is the ten year definition of insansity. Keep doing the same things over and over and hoping for a different outcome. At some point someone might understand modeling and specificity.  Especially since we just had an epic model fail yesterday. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ryan mentioning sun/mon system on the television. Lock it up. 

I always get a kick out of news hype. Then boom come say Friday the will start the big changes in our forecast teasers. Then the old well modeling has certainly changed bullshit. GP falls for it then the Mets complain when.people diss them. Next day they are back at it, throwing up 10 day forecasts. I laugh at the long range stuff. Ryan and crew are fantastic at the short term and should stick to 5 day, ditch 10 day and concentrate on what reality is. The reality is they probably have a good idea what the temps will be for a week but no clue what the sensible weather will be.

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7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Harv throwing up highs in the mid to upper 30s for highs Sun/Mon with a mix. Let’s do it. 

That's about all you can do at this time range. Keeps all options on the table. 

The high is in a pretty nice spot at least. 

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I always get a kick out of news hype. Then boom come say Friday the will start the big changes in our forecast teasers. Then the old well modeling has certainly changed bullshit. GP falls for it then the Mets complain when.people diss them. Next day they are back at it, throwing up 10 day forecasts. I laugh at the long range stuff. Ryan and crew are fantastic at the short term and should stick to 5 day, ditch 10 day and concentrate on what reality is. The reality is they probably have a good idea what the temps will be for a week but no clue what the sensible weather will be.

It’s a major holiday weekend. I think it’s worth mentioning it like he did. Just throw out the small probability to alert viewers that winter is right around the corner. I don’t have a problem with it. 

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49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

And my gut says suppression depression :lol:.... two peas in a pod.  Always assume the worst.

Well we both have science behind it right? You are probably thinking the confluence to the northeast is real and it certainly could be a gfs type solution. I’m thinking this will be a little closer to the region ala EPS. Antecedent airmass isn’t completely ideal for coast (although doable on gfs) and given the origins of these things, just think it’s more for NNE. But it’s all fun and games this far out. It would be silly to lock something in. I sense a little bit of snake bitten Scott coming out when he sees the gfs solution. The bottle of Scotch opened, feverishly rocking back and forth. 

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I always get a kick out of news hype. Then boom come say Friday the will start the big changes in our forecast teasers. Then the old well modeling has certainly changed bullshit. GP falls for it then the Mets complain when.people diss them. Next day they are back at it, throwing up 10 day forecasts. I laugh at the long range stuff. Ryan and crew are fantastic at the short term and should stick to 5 day, ditch 10 day and concentrate on what reality is. The reality is they probably have a good idea what the temps will be for a week but no clue what the sensible weather will be.

Exactly!!!!!

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well we both have science behind it right? You are probably thinking the confluence to the northeast is real and it certainly could be a gfs type solution. I’m thinking this will be a little closer to the region ala EPS. Antecedent airmass isn’t completely ideal for coast (although doable on gfs) and given the origins of these things, just think it’s more for NNE. But it’s all fun and games this far out. It would be silly to lock something in. I sense a little bit of snake bitten Scott coming out when he sees the gfs solution. The bottle of Scotch opened, feverishly rocking back and forth. 

Mentioning GFS thermals day 7 should be a suspension of your degree

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