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Rtd208

November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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45 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We still get some snow. There are 2 lows. Long ways to go.

Yes, first low is on the frontal boundary and the second is the one heading NE from the gulf which needs to amplify for us to see a snow event. 

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56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even a T of snow would be impressive for November 12th. 

exactly-we all average anywhere from 0- to maybe an inch of snow for November....anything would be notable given the time of year

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Next week looks like something straight out of January. Hard to believe it was in the 90’s just a few weeks ago.

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just an occasional T for NYC between 1987 and 2011 by November 15th.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 15 to Nov 15
Missing Count
2018-11-15 6.4 0
2017-11-15 0.0 0
2016-11-15 0.0 0
2015-11-15 0.0 0
2014-11-15 T 0
2013-11-15 T 0
2012-11-15 4.7 0
2011-11-15 2.9 0
2010-11-15 T 0
2009-11-15 0.0 0
2008-11-15 0.0 0
2007-11-15 0.0 0
2006-11-15 0.0 0
2005-11-15 0.0 0
2004-11-15 T 0
2003-11-15 0.0 0
2002-11-15 T 0
2001-11-15 0.0 0
2000-11-15 T 0
1999-11-15 0.0 0
1998-11-15 0.0 0
1997-11-15 T 0
1996-11-15 T 0
1995-11-15 T 0
1994-11-15 0.0 0
1993-11-15 0.0 0
1992-11-15 0.0 0
1991-11-15 T 0
1990-11-15 0.0 0
1989-11-15 0.0 0
1988-11-15 0.0 0
1987-11-15 1.1 0

 

That was then. Early season snows are becoming increasingly common. 

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31 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Next week looks like something straight out of January. Hard to believe it was in the 90’s just a few weeks ago.

Several weeks ago

eps right on benchmark for next weeks storm

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There were 3 years this decade when NYC had more snow in October and November than December.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Season
2010 0.0 T 20.1 20.1
2011 2.9 0.0 0.0 2.9
2012 0.0 4.7 0.4 5.1
2013 0.0 T 8.6 8.6
2014 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2
2015 0.0 0.0 T T
2016 0.0 T 3.2 3.2
2017 0.0 T 7.7 7.7
2018 0.0 6.4 T 6.4
2019 0.0 0.0 M 0.0

I remember 2000 and 2003 had big snowstorms in December.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Root for the lead wave to weaken faster so the second one can track closer to the benchmark.

more of an anafront than a classic coastal low

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh132-156.gif

Gfs has 3 lows for next week. This storm should be fun to track.

Inland areas should do really well

 The coast is the tricky part. It would help if the front speeds up.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has 3 lows for next week. This storm should be fun to track.

Inland areas should do really well

 The coast is the tricky part. It would help if the front speeds up.

Temperatures aren't the issue, QPF is. Which is why Suffolk co. Does well. 

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13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has 3 lows for next week. This storm should be fun to track.

Inland areas should do really well

 The coast is the tricky part. It would help if the front speeds up.

Actually the front stalling would make this storm more amplified resulting in a more dynamic system otherwise we’ll have a rain to snow anafrontal 3 hours of precip. 

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13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has 3 lows for next week. This storm should be fun to track.

Inland areas should do really well

 The coast is the tricky part. It would help if the front speeds up.

Needs to be a few hours earlier and we'd be golden. NYC stays subfreezing for 96+ hours

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13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Needs to be a few hours earlier and we'd be golden. NYC stays subfreezing for 96+ hours

Do you see the cold after the storm ? Jeez

You would think its January. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tied with last year for 2nd highest North America snow extent by November 5th.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

8633E554-05C6-4C24-90BC-1D69B96EB422.png.7e569161a1718d4b7120ffb0ef4256a0.png

 


 

 

I am sure you recall last year, looked great and was great but we hit the middle of December and poof, we lost a lot of the snow cover in the States and in Canada. 

Notice that dramatic decline in the graph around the second part of December. We would recover eventually,  but not till mid Feb. ironic. 

Wonder if we are destined to the same outcome this year?

You would have thought the snow cover might have aided in the delivery of cold air masses into the states,  but alas it seems the ones who did benefit the  most were the Northern Plains and Northern Maine.  

 

 

 

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A cold front, which will likely see a storm develop along the frontal boundary, will bring the season's coldest air mass so far this season into the region later this week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season.

An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania across the New York State border eastward into New England will likely see measurable snowfall Thursday night into Friday. A portion of this area, including Binghamton, has the potential to pick up 2"-4" of snow. A second and potentially larger storm could impact parts of the regon next week.

In part, due to what will likely become a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation, the second half warmup will likely be gradual. Readings might not return to normal and then above normal until around November 20 +/- a few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -6.81 today.

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.889.

On November 5, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.632 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.572.

The 2.567 amplitude is the highest amplitude on record in November for the MJO's being in Phase 5. The previous record was 2.572, which was set yesterday. Prior to this year, it was 2.512 on November 24, 2002.

The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal.

Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. The probability of such a warmup has increased according to some of the recent guidance.

80% of the cases that saw New York City record a mean temperature below 46.0° during the first half of November went on to see 20" or more seasonal snowfall. Almost one quarter of such winters saw 40" or more snow. This data would suggest 20"-30" seasonal snowfall for the New York City area absent other variables (some of which could increase or reduce such amounts).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 77% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

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the best week leading up to Christmas has to be 1883...since 1945 the best pre Christmas week could be 1945 or 1948...more recently 1995 was very good...

2009.....max...min...LE...snow...depth

12/19.....30......21...0.61"...9.1"....9"

12/20.....34......21...0.13"...1.8"....8"

12/21.....36......28......0...…..0......7"

12/22.....36......23......0...…..0......6"

12/23.....30......20......0...…..0......5"

12/24.....39......24......0...…..0......3"

12/25.....38......33...0.24".....0...…1"

………………………...……………………...

2000

12/19.....41......28......0...…..0...…0

12/20.....36......25...0.07"...0.5"....T

12/21.....33......22......0...…..0......0

12/22.....32......17...0.01"...0.8"....1"

12/23.....30......14......0...…..0......T

12/24.....31......23......0...…..0......T

12/25.....27......15......0...…..0......0

……………………………………………...

1995

12/19.....33......22...0.68"...5.5"....6"

12/20.....23......18...0.12"...2.2"....7"

12/21.....30......19......T...…..T......7"

12/22.....34......28...0.01"...0.1"....7"

12/23.....38......29......0...…..0......5"

12/24.....34......26......0...…..0......4"

12/25.....35......26......T...…..T......3"

…………………………………………...

1983...

12/19.....34......21......0...…..0......0

12/20.....25......17......0...…..0......0

12/21.....32......14......T...…..T......T

12/22.....53......31...2.18"...0.6"....0

12/23.....41......22...0.02"...0.2"....T

12/24.....22...….6...0.07"...0.8"....1"

12/25.....13...….4......0...…..0......1"

……………………………………………….

1980

12/19.....41......17......0...…..0......0

12/20.....26......14......0...…..0......0

12/21.....27......16......0...…..0......0

12/22.....32......19......0...…..0......0

12/23.....34......29...0.16"...0.6"....1"

12/24.....37......20...0.10"...1.0"....1"

12/25.....20...…-1......0...…..0......1"

………………………………………………...

1975

12/19.....26......17......T...…..T......

12/20.....41......22......T...…..T

12/21.....27......22......T...…..T

12/22.....32......24...0.18"...1.8"....2""

12/23.....34......22......0...…..0......1"

12/24.....23......16......0...…..0......1"

12/25.....33......17...0.17...0.5".....1"

………………………………………………………….

1970

12/19.....50......33......0...…..0......0

12/20.....46......36......0...…..0......0

12/21.....36......30...0.05"...0.3"....T

12/22.....32......23...0.24'...1.8".....2"

12/23.....32......28...0.21".....T...…1"

12/24.....33......30...0.12".....0...…T

12/25.....32......29......0...…..0......T

………………………………………………………….

1966

12/19.....42......24......0...…..0......0

12/20.....37......24...0.20"......T......0

12/21.....34......28...0.15"...1.2"....T

12/22.....36......27......0...…..0......T

12/23.....31......26......0...…..0......T

12/24.....26......22...0.74"...6.7"....7"

12/25.....32......23...0.05"...0.4"....7"

………………………………………………………...

1963

12/19.....30......16......T...…..T......1"

12/20.....26......11......0...…..0......1"

12/21.....22......11......0...…..0......1"

12/22.....36......21......0...…..0......T

12/23.....32......28...0.60"...6.0"....6"

12/24.....36......25...0.08"...0.6"....6"

12/25.....39......33......0...…..0......4"

……………………………………………………..

1962

12/19.....41......37......0...…..0......0

12/20.....41......17......0...…..0......0

12/21.....28......10...0.16"...1.6"....2"

12/22.....37......28...0.38"...1.1"....1"

12/23.....39......31......T...…..T......1"

12/24.....34......24......0...…..0......T

12/25.....35......24...0.10"...0.3"....T

………………………………………………………………

1961

12/19.....42......36...0.15".....0......0

12/20.....44......38......0...…..0......0

12/21.....41......32......0...…..0......0

12/22.....40......29......0...…..0......0

12/23.....37......26...0.23"...2.8"....3"

12/24.....33......25...0.35"...3.4"....6"

12/25.....36......22......0...…..0......5"

……………………………….................

1960

12/19.....34......24...0.11"...1.3"....7"

12/20.....34......21......0...…..0......7"

12/21.....49......25...1.29".....T......2"

12/22.....25......16......0...…..0......2"

12/23.....22...….9......0...…..0......2"

12/24.....32...….9......T...…..T......1"

12/25.....39......28......0...…..0......1"

…………………………....................

1959

12/19.....41......27......T...…..0......0

12/20.....33......25......0...…..0......0

12/21.....33......23...0.25"...3.4"....3"

12/22.....28......17...0.71" 10.3"....13"

12/23.....23...….9......0...…..0......12"

12/24.....31......18......0...…..0......8"

12/25.....39......30......T...…..0......4"

……………………………………............

1955

12/19.....35......20...0.01"...0.1"....T

12/20.....20...…..6......0...…..0......0

12/21.....18...…..5......0...…..0......0

12/22.....22......12...0.15"...2.7"....3"

12/23.....26......15......0...…..0......2"

12/24.....40......26......T...…..0......T

12/25.....51......33......0...…..0......0

…………………………………………………….

1948

12/19.....29......26...1.51" 15.8"....16"

12/20.....30......26...0.02"...0.2"....14"

12/21.....42......26......T...…..T......11"

12/22.....45......36......0...…..0......8"

12/23.....38......28......0...…..0......6"

12/24.....29......21......T...…..T......6"

12/25.....27......13......0...…..0......5"

…………………………………………………...

1947

12/19.....32......21......0...…..0......0

12/20.....32......17......0...…..0...…0

12/21.....42......28......0...…..0......0

12/22.....42......32......0...…..0......0

12/23.....37......28...0.29"...2.5"....2"

12/24.....33......22......T...…..T......2"

12/25.....33......19......0...…..0......1"

…………………………………………………….

1945

12/19.....23......20...0.86"...8.0"....8"

12/20.....27......18...0.02"...0.3"....8"

12/21.....27......19......T...…..T......8"

12/22.....25......18...0.01"...0.1"....8"

12/23.....27......10......0...…..0......7"

12/24.....29......14......0...…..0......7"

12/25.....51......20...1.29".....0......2"

…………………………………………………...

1919

12/19.....20......10...0.11"...1.9"....2"

12/20.....28......18......0...…..0......1"

12/21.....30......25......T...…..T......1"

12/22.....37......30......0...…..0......T

12/23.....44......29......0...…..0......T

12/24.....40......26...0.22"...2.7"....3"

12/25.....27......16...0.01"...0.1"....2"

……………………………………………………..

1904

12/19.....39......30......0...…..0......6"

12/20.....36......30......0...…..0......5"

12/21.....31......23......0...…..0......5"

12/22.....36......23......0...…..0......4"

12/23.....47......36...0.01".....0......1"

12/24.....46......22...0.01"...0.1"....T

12/25.....27......21...0.16"...3.0"....3"

……………………………………………………….

1884

12/19.....16...….-1......0...…..0......T

12/20...….7...…-3......0...…..0......T

12/21.....36...…..7...1.94"...4.0"....2"

12/22.....39......33...0.04"......0......1"

12/23.....38......24......0...…..0......T

12/24.....24......18...0.27"...3.5"....3"

12/25.....25......16......0...…..0......3"

………………………………………………………..

1883

12/19.....37......23...0.60"...5.0"....5"

12/20.....24......21......0...…..0......5"

12/21.....29......21...0.35"...2.5"....7"

12/22.....25......10......0...…..0......7"

12/23.....10...….-1...0.01"...0.3"....7"

12/24.....31...…..7...0.80"...7.3"....14"

12/25.....31......28...0.38"...5.0"....18"

…………………………………………………...

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Based on the latest guidance, there is a growing chance that New York City will have a November 1-15 mean temperature below 44.0°. The last time that happened was November 1976 when New York City had a mean temperature of 42.1°. Since 1869, New York City has had only 11 cases where the November 1-15 temperature was below 44.0°.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on the latest guidance, there is a growing chance that New York City will have a November 1-15 mean temperature below 44.0°. The last time that happened was November 1976 when New York City had a mean temperature of 42.1°. Since 1869, New York City has had only 11 cases where the November 1-15 temperature was below 44.0°.

I think we're going to see one of the most radical two halves ever. 

2nd half looks to be a blowtorch, early guidance like tonight's GFS already hinting at it. 

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