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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes, isnt that something lol. The type of Winter lover I am, this was certainly not my Winter of choice, but I also disagree when people act like the snowfall total makes the Winter look better than it was or something along those lines. It is what it is.  That's why there's so many other facets to the weather than just how much snow fell. The bottom line was, this was for all intents and purposes and average snow season, technically a drop above average.  The number of snowcover days of 1"+ averages 50, but this year DTW saw 41 days, so that is moreso indicative of the mild Winter.

 

DTW snowfall this season:

Oct- T (-0.1)

Nov- 9.5" (+8.0)

Dec- 2.7" (-7.0)

Jan- 9.7" (-2.8)

Feb- 14.7" (+4.5)

Mar- 1.7" (-5.2)

Apr- 4.9" (+3.2)

May- ?:lol:

May had better be 0

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52 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes, isnt that something lol. The type of Winter lover I am, this was certainly not my Winter of choice, but I also disagree when people act like the snowfall total makes the Winter look better than it was or something along those lines. It is what it is.  That's why there's so many other facets to the weather than just how much snow fell. The bottom line was, this was for all intents and purposes and average snow season, technically a drop above average.  The number of snowcover days of 1"+ averages 50, but this year DTW saw 41 days, so that is moreso indicative of the mild Winter.

 

DTW snowfall this season:

Oct- T (-0.1)

Nov- 9.5" (+8.0)

Dec- 2.7" (-7.0)

Jan- 9.7" (-2.8)

Feb- 14.7" (+4.5)

Mar- 1.7" (-5.2)

Apr- 4.9" (+3.2)

May- ?:lol:

It was an exceptionally mild winter but unlike previous mild winters, i.e. 2011-12, we fared leagues better. February seems to be our best month of late, so it's no surprise February ended up above average in DTW. I think our 12 year running average is 15" at YYZ, way above our 1981-2010 average of 9.5" and 1971-2000 average of 8.8". Snowcover was almost absent this winter. We'd get a couple inches and within a few days it'd be gone. I think the reason DTW saw 41 days with snowcover this year was because we had an active storm track all winter long. There was hardly any arctic air this winter. Hence why I refuse to give this winter anything higher than a B+. Hard to forget that 3" rain storm back in Jan lol. 

Nonetheless, nice to see both Chicago and Detroit finishing at or slightly above average. 

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We may be done with the real cold stuff, but models are not very pretty for the lakes region the rest of the month.  We get a warm day Wednesday, with a high in the 70s, and Thursday should be solid, but then it kinda turns kinda lousy again.  The GFS and Euro both show a similar pattern... general wnw/nw flow, with disturbances riding southeast like clippers and then amping up as they turn east into the Ohio Valley.  

Farther into the lakes, like Michigan, you don't even get the brief midweek warmth.  The Euro has you in 40s and 50s for the next ten days.  Yuck.

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Hard pass.  also i can't imagine there would be enough dynamic cooling at noon on april 25 to change the column over to snow.

Screenshot 2020-04-20 at 11.35.06 AM.png

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On ‎4‎/‎18‎/‎2020 at 2:48 PM, Snowstorms said:

It was an exceptionally mild winter but unlike previous mild winters, i.e. 2011-12, we fared leagues better. February seems to be our best month of late, so it's no surprise February ended up above average in DTW. I think our 12 year running average is 15" at YYZ, way above our 1981-2010 average of 9.5" and 1971-2000 average of 8.8". Snowcover was almost absent this winter. We'd get a couple inches and within a few days it'd be gone. I think the reason DTW saw 41 days with snowcover this year was because we had an active storm track all winter long. There was hardly any arctic air this winter. Hence why I refuse to give this winter anything higher than a B+. Hard to forget that 3" rain storm back in Jan lol. 

Nonetheless, nice to see both Chicago and Detroit finishing at or slightly above average. 

The most consecutive days with 1"+ snowcover was 9, set twice (Nov 11-19 & Jan 18-26). If you count days with T snowdepth, there were a total of 73 days with some snow on the ground (41 days 1"+, 32 days T). It could certainly be much better but it also could be worse.

The best period of snowcover was mid-Jan to mid-Feb when only a few days had 0 depth

2020-01-18          5
2020-01-19 4
2020-01-20 4
2020-01-21 4
2020-01-22 4
2020-01-23 4
2020-01-24 3
2020-01-25 2
2020-01-26 1
2020-01-27 T
2020-01-28 T
2020-01-29 T
2020-01-30 T
2020-01-31 T
2020-02-01 T
2020-02-02 1
2020-02-03 0
2020-02-04 0
2020-02-05 0
2020-02-06 2
2020-02-07 3
2020-02-08 3
2020-02-09 2
2020-02-10 3
2020-02-11 2
2020-02-12 T
2020-02-13 1
2020-02-14 2
2020-02-15 2
2020-02-16 1
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Models have backed off of any cold, here at the west edge of the subforum, into early May.  A few days ago they had a strong, wet system holding us in the 30s and 40s Saturday, but now that system will be more progressive and we should reach the 60s.  The latest Euro has 60s and 70s every day except one through day ten.

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25 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models have backed off of any cold, here at the west edge of the subforum, into early May.  A few days ago they had a strong, wet system holding us in the 30s and 40s Saturday, but now that system will be more progressive and we should reach the 60s.  The latest Euro has 60s and 70s every day except one through day ten.

Yeah definite trend upwards with temps, also no lows forecast below 36 in the point so the last freeze may have already happened here.

 

Also dewpoints don't look to drop below 20 any more which my skin will definitely appreciate

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On 4/9/2020 at 1:42 PM, A-L-E-K said:

GFS just incredibly wet, seems like that's the only thing we can count on anymore

wet

 

Capture.JPG

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Almost half of the 2019-20 snow at ORD fell OUTSIDE of the DJF meteorological winter -- 16.2" out of 34.8".  Didn't go through the years to see just how often something like that occurs but I guarantee it's very unusual.

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Just saw in the SNE forum that Boston only hit 62 for a high temp in all of April, which is the lowest April max monthly temp on record. And, the highest temp in Boston for JFMA 2020 occurred in January. That’s crazy. 

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Just saw in the SNE forum that Boston only hit 62 for a high temp in all of April, which is the lowest April max monthly temp on record. And, the highest temp in Boston for JFMA 2020 occurred in January. That’s crazy. 

boston hit 74 in Jan. That is crazy. You have to go back to Jan 2019 when they had a month with a lower max than 62

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Almost half of the 2019-20 snow at ORD fell OUTSIDE of the DJF meteorological winter -- 16.2" out of 34.8".  Didn't go through the years to see just how often something like that occurs but I guarantee it's very unusual.

Not as extreme at Detroit, but the monthly breakdown sure looks odd though: Nov had way more snow than Dec, and Apr had way more than Mar.

Oct: T

Nov: 9.5"

Dec: 2.7"

Jan: 9.7"

Feb: 14.7"

Mar: 1.7"

Apr: 4.9"

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3 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

And....the second week of May could be a continuation of the pattern we couldn't get in Met winter.....sucks!

Image

If its going to be that cold, might as well root for the rare May snowflakes. Would make the 8th consecutive month with snow. :weenie:

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

If its going to be that cold, might as well root for the rare May snowflakes. Would make the 8th consecutive month with snow. :weenie:

Uhhhh... no! 

The next time I want to see snow is Nov. I'm ready for bbq season (at home ofc). 

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9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

If its going to be that cold, might as well root for the rare May snowflakes. Would make the 8th consecutive month with snow. :weenie:

At this point why not make a weird year weirder. 

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Here is the AWSSI index for Winter 2019-20, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC).  As expected, the past winter in Chicago was categorized as "mild", which is the weakest of the 5 categories (mild, moderate, average, severe, extreme).

Current winter map here, along with an explanation of the AWSSI at the bottom of the page:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Details/graphs for specific cities here:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/AWSSI/chart.html

 

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20 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Here is the AWSSI index for Winter 2019-20, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC).  As expected, the past winter in Chicago was categorized as "mild", which is the weakest of the 5 categories (mild, moderate, average, severe, extreme).

Current winter map here, along with an explanation of the AWSSI at the bottom of the page:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Details/graphs for specific cities here:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/AWSSI/chart.html

 

Ah yes the weather world is the only place Moderate can be described as a below average winter and a massive severe weather event

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23 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Here is the AWSSI index for Winter 2019-20, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC).  As expected, the past winter in Chicago was categorized as "mild", which is the weakest of the 5 categories (mild, moderate, average, severe, extreme).

Current winter map here, along with an explanation of the AWSSI at the bottom of the page:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Details/graphs for specific cities here:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/AWSSI/chart.html

 

Here's how 2013-14 compares to 2019-20 for Chicago.  A bit of a difference.

2019-2020-awssi-il-chica.jpeg.thumb.jpg.7c6caa25fe836ac8b9381a7065cf3ebe.jpg

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22 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Here is the AWSSI index for Winter 2019-20, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC).  As expected, the past winter in Chicago was categorized as "mild", which is the weakest of the 5 categories (mild, moderate, average, severe, extreme).

Current winter map here, along with an explanation of the AWSSI at the bottom of the page:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Details/graphs for specific cities here:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/AWSSI/chart.html

 

 Interesting graphs and charts. I will have fun playing around with them. I notice when you use historical years there is also a record extreme and record mild.  What's interesting about the index is that it takes everything into account. So for anyone who says this seasons  snowfall numbers don't tell the truth about how Winter really was lol, use an index like this.  Just glancing at some historical years, it works both ways. For instance a cold Winter that may have had sucky snow fall could still fall in the average or even severe category. There's no way around it, this Winter saw a surprisingly decent amount of snow for many north of I 80 but it was a mild Winter over all

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