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October Discobs 2019

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 685
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Far east Kentucky
     Far northwest North Carolina
     Far northeast Tennessee
     Southwest Virginia
     West Virginia

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM
     until 700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A thin line of low-topped convection should spread rapidly
   northeast this afternoon. Damaging winds from strong to locally
   severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard. Some intensification
   to the line is anticipated towards late afternoon, which should
   support a risk for a couple tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 20 miles southeast of Bristol TN to 50
   miles northwest of Elkins WV. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean
   storm motion vector 21045.

ww0685_overview_wou.gif

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Satellite shows some pockets of clearing ahead of the line associated with the tornado watch. Question will be whether that becomes clouded over more with stuff popping ahead of the line...or will the clearing sustain and move over our area later on. In my mind, any clearing is just bonus instability. 

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Expected TOR too... and they mention potential discrete sups as well

mcd2129.gif.0dc361d5091674701d2a7d9d2e7d9e37.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 2129
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of northern North Carolina...much of
   Virginia...western and central Maryland...south central Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 311711Z - 311945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...One or more severe weather watches will likely be needed
   east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains by 4-5 PM EDT. 
   However, isolated severe storm development, including a risk for
   supercells, could require an earlier watch (likely tornado)
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level and deep-layer shear are already strong to
   extreme across and east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains,
   within deepening lee surface troughing, to the southeast of the
   intensifying surface cyclone now approaching Lake Erie.  Despite
   weak mid/upper lapse rates, the northward return of seasonably moist
   boundary layer air (including surface dew points near 70F), coupled
   with boundary layer warming, is also contributing to modest
   destabilization across this region.  Mixed-layer CAPE probably will
   continue to increase through the 500-1000+ J/kg range into mid to
   late afternoon, perhaps as far north as south central Pennsylvania.

   The primary increase in severe weather potential to the east of the
   Allegheny Mountains still appears likely to occur in association
   with an intensifying squall line near/just ahead of an approaching
   strengthening cold front, mainly during and after the 21-23Z time
   frame.  However, it might not be out of the question that the
   ongoing destabilization, weakening inhibition, and perhaps forcing
   for ascent associated with weak warm advection, may become
   sufficient to support isolated to widely scattered discrete
   convective development in advance of the front.  If this occurs, the
   environment will probably be conducive to supercells, which may be
   accompanied by the risk for tornadoes, in addition to localized
   strong surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 10/31/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

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Starting to see the heavy wording in  the STW's being issued by MRX and RLX stating either "widespread wind damage is occuring"  or "intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage "

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Expected TOR too... and they mention potential discrete sups as well

 

       The HRRR does initiate a few supercells out ahead of the main forcing,  so I understand SPC's thinking.   But they form in western VA and move north-northeast into PA, consistent with where the box will be issued.     Still think that the chances of discrete supercells in the DC metro area is really low.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1240 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-501>508-
VAZ025>031-036>040-050>057-501>508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-010000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-
Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Extreme Western Allegany-
Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-
Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick,
Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown,
Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton,
College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie,
Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton,
St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California,
Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby,
Prince Frederick, Frostburg, Cumberland, Germantown, Damascus,
Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon,
Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton,
Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock,
Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah,
Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston, Charlottesville,
Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg,
Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville,
Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney,
Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield,
Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser,
New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby,
Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove
1240 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...DAMAGING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT...

A line of thunderstorms is expected to move east across the
region. These storms will bring the possibility of damaging wind
gusts and isolated tornadoes. Please be sheltered when these
thunderstorms pass through your area.

The most likely timing of the line ranges from mid to late
afternoon for the Potomac Highlands, to the evening for the
Baltimore/Washington metros, to between 9pm and midnight for
areas east of I-95 to the Chesapeake Bay. The storms will likely
last an hour or less in most areas.

Stay informed. For more exact timing for your location, consult
the forecast for your community at our website weather.gov or our
Facebook or Twitter feeds for National Weather Service
Baltimore/Washington.

$$
STRONG

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17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Satellite shows some pockets of clearing ahead of the line associated with the tornado watch. Question will be whether that becomes clouded over more with stuff popping ahead of the line...or will the clearing sustain and move over our area later on. In my mind, any clearing is just bonus instability. 

There were some peaks of sun in Western Albemarle right after the line of showers but quickly clouded over again. 

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Visible satellite would suggest that we probably don't see any big breaks in the clouds, but anything helps.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Visible satellite would suggest that we probably don't see any big breaks in the clouds, but anything helps.

Yeah I don't see any sustained clearing - but definitely some pockets where the sun could pop out. Any sun could really boost instability so we max potential. 

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Just a little breezy so far today. Although, this brief moderate shower moving through has produced gusty conditions. Reminds me of a tropical system. Roughly 30mph or so but you can see how 50+ will be pretty easy with some convection.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah I don't see any sustained clearing - but definitely some pockets where the sun could pop out. Any sun could really boost instability so we max potential. 

Just as we say this things start to clear out south of us......

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Just as we say this things start to clear out south of us......

Getting a little bit of sun poking through the clouds here right now

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Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 300 PM EDT.
    
* At 225 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Babcock State Park, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Rainelle...
  Quinwood...
  Bingham...
  Duo...
  and Anjean.
 

 

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just as we say this things start to clear out south of us......

Yeah today could be a legit deal if we get more than just a bit of sunshine. Line is already taking shape nicely. Lots of wind reports with it already - which is impressive given that it's going through relatively low population density areas. 

  • Like 1

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Yeah today could be a legit deal if we get more than just a bit of sunshine. Line is already taking shape nicely. Lots of wind reports with it already - which is impressive given that it's going through relatively low population density areas. 

Mid level cloud deck is really clearing out all the way up to Cumberland now.  

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
238 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Erie this afternoon will track
northeastward up the Saint Lawrence River valley through Friday,
dragging a powerful cold front across the Mid-Atlantic this
evening. High pressure will build in for Friday through
Saturday. A much weaker and drier cold front will cross the
region Saturday night. Another high pressure will build across
the region Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strengthening, dynamic storm system is currently crossing the
eastern United States. So far, we`ve only seen some periods of
rain and considerably warmer-than-normal temperatures with a
gusty south breeze. However, the cold front will cross the
region late this afternoon and this evening. Very strong wind
fields in excess of 50 knots very close to the surface are
resulting in plenty of shear, and the powerful cold front will
also feature a dramatic pressure rise of 10 mb or more in just a
couple hours immediately behind it. The warm and moist air mass
with PW`s closing in on 2 inches is trying to destabilize, and
while its nothing compared to what we get in early summer,
enough CAPE and shear are present with the potent dynamics aloft
to promote widespread severe weather. Most of this should be in
the form of the squall line currently seen on radar over West
Virginia stretching southward into the western Carolinas, which
will be racing northeastward across our region through this
evening. However, just enough instability is present such that a
discrete supercell ahead of the main line can`t be completely
ruled out this evening. With all the wind present aloft, it
won`t take much to bring damaging gusts down to the surface. In
addition, the low level shear will bring a risk of quickly
spinning up tornadoes right on the main line. A tornado watch
may be issued in the next few hours.

With the high PW`s, there is a risk of heavy rain and brief
minor flooding, though expect the rain to be just brief enough
to preclude the issuance of a flash flood watch. Winds may also
last or reintensify right behind the squall line and could gust
up to 45-50 mph for an hour or so right behind the front. Given
the close proximity of this feature to the main squalls, decided
to not issue a wind advisory for locations east of the current
advisory, but its possible a short- fuse one gets issued to
cover this threat in the next few hours. Otherwise, the main
advisory should cover the greater period of higher gusts likely
at the higher elevations in western VA and WV.

Behind the main squall line and winds, clearing skies should
take hold in most areas as high pressure builds in. The cold air
moving in could reach our highest elevations quickly enough to
bring a coating of snow, but this is most likely confined to
locations above 4000 feet, such as Spruce Knob. Elsewhere,
drying conditions with lows in the 40s can be expected after
midnight.

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