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Hoosier

October 2019 General Discussion

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The sharp edge of the big rain event ended up in between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.  Iowa City got nothing while I got 2.04".  Locations just north of CR got 3-4+".

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14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The sharp edge of the big rain event ended up in between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.  Iowa City got nothing while I got 2.04".  Locations just north of CR got 3-4+".

Nice soaking there.  0.00" here, but looks like a shot at a wave of decent rains this evening.  3km NAM shows some pretty decent convection rolling through mid-evening.

The surface low is just to the north, which has kept us in a little wedge of warmth and humidity.  Still pretty muggy out there with 74/71 at the moment.  Should drop a good 10 degrees by noon.

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11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hey beavis, looks like this could be close.  I forgot it actually has to make it until 1 am central since we are still on daylight savings time.  Outflow is currently just south of MKE and moving south but not necessarily racing.  It better not come through between 12 and 1 haha.  

:( Disappointing at ORD, missed the monthly record by a hair.  I knew this could happen when I was out for a walk last night around 11:00, and could feel the outflow hit.  I'm about 20 miles N of ORD.  The temp dropped from 77 to 70 in 15 minutes. 

But Rockford did set a new monthly high min for October:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
0145 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019

...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
SET AT ROCKFORD IL ON TUESDAY OCTOBER 1...

 A DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS SET AT
ROCKFORD ON TUESDAY OCTOBER 1. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR
OCTOBER 1 OF 63 DEGREES SET IN 1971.

 THIS ALSO WAS A DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH
OF OCTOBER. THIS TOPS THE OLD RECORD OF 69 DEGREES SET ON OCTOBER 3
1954 AND OCTOBER 21 1979.

 THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR ROCKFORD DATES BACK TO 1905.

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Looks like Lincoln IL only dropped to 76F last night. That would beat the old all time record high min by 5F but it looks like it will cool to lower than that today. Point and click has Lincoln at 72F at 12AM which would still set all time high min for October. That's assuming cutoff time is at 12AM of course.

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1 hour ago, fluoronium said:

Looks like Lincoln IL only dropped to 76F last night. That would beat the old all time record high min by 5F but it looks like it will cool to lower than that today. Point and click has Lincoln at 72F at 12AM which would still set all time high min for October. That's assuming cutoff time is at 12AM of course.

It will be whatever the temp is at 1 am central daylight time (or more precisely, 12:59 am cdt) because the climate days run on standard time.

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Actually have a signal for some lake effect rain here on Friday.  Makes me remember that the 19 year anniversary of the October 7-8, 2000 lake effect snow is approaching.  Not gonna snow this time though.  :P

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Actually have a signal for some lake effect rain here on Friday.  Makes me remember that the 19 year anniversary of the October 7-8, 2000 lake effect snow is approaching.  Not gonna snow this time though.  :P

Give it time.. fwiw long range GFS has us cold and CFS (lol) have us in heavy winter jackets fighting an arctic blast on Halloween haha. :arrowhead:

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This map is fascinating for the past month. Northern IL, southeast IA, and southern WI at 300-500% of normal precipitation while most of KY is at less than 10% and some less than 5%. I'm guessing some of the those areas in IL, IA, and WI saw more than 12 inches of rain in September with October starting off wet, while many areas of KY have not had measurable precipitation in 5 weeks. What a stark contrast over just a few hundred miles distance.

Screen Shot 2019-10-02 at 3.34.15 PM.png

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1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

I am sorta happy the wet express is gone from the upper ov for awhile. I got sick of the heavy rain.

Back in June everyone here was complaining about the excessive rain thus far this year and last year. Then come July the shift began. Now, I think most people would love just to see a rainy day. Worst drought in north-central KY since 1999, maybe even worse in the very short term.

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Cold front is now down to areas just north of Interstate 70 here in the Buckeye State. 59°F currently in Wauseon.

822 PM Radar.JPG

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Picked up another 0.46" today on top of last night's 2.05".  It's pretty wet around here.  It's even wetter just north.  I wish I could bottle this pattern and open it up in December.

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Well, the area that recently got hammered south of Chicago looks like it's going to get some pretty good rain again, though amounts should be less than last time.

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RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
616 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2019

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT INDIANAPOLIS...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES WAS SET AT INDIANAPOLIS 
YESTERDAY...OCTOBER 2 2019. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 89 SET IN 
1953.

THE 92 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE ALSO TIES THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE 
FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...WHICH WAS JUST SET THE DAY BEFORE ON 
OCTOBER 1 2019.

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Large part of Kentucky now in a severe to even extreme drought conditions. Huge field / grass fire near Lexington, KY this afternoon. Louisville set another record high today. 3 for the 3 for October. The 10th record high temperature set in the past 23 days.

Screen Shot 2019-10-03 at 3.23.18 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-10-03 at 3.25.55 PM.png

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17 hours ago, ovweather said:

Large part of Kentucky now in a severe to even extreme drought conditions. Huge field / grass fire near Lexington, KY this afternoon. Louisville set another record high today. 3 for the 3 for October. The 10th record high temperature set in the past 23 days.

 

 

I've been thinking a lot about the 'crispy dry' conditions around here and into southern OH.   I'm really surprised that I haven't heard more about wildfire threats.   If we don't get some decent rain in the next few weeks it's going to be an absolute tinder box out there.   Hell, we couldn't even squeeze a drop of rain out of a front that ended a heat wave and dropped our temps 30 degrees....just a dry windy front.

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17 hours ago, ovweather said:

Large part of Kentucky now in a severe to even extreme drought conditions. Huge field / grass fire near Lexington, KY this afternoon. Louisville set another record high today. 3 for the 3 for October. The 10th record high temperature set in the past 23 days.

Screen Shot 2019-10-03 at 3.23.18 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-10-03 at 3.25.55 PM.png

Thankfully, it looks like the greatest Sunday/Monday rainfall totals will occur for those in the severest drought conditions. Hopefully southern Indiana will get in on the action. 

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17 hours ago, ovweather said:

Large part of Kentucky now in a severe to even extreme drought conditions. Huge field / grass fire near Lexington, KY this afternoon. Louisville set another record high today. 3 for the 3 for October. The 10th record high temperature set in the past 23 days.

Screen Shot 2019-10-03 at 3.23.18 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-10-03 at 3.25.55 PM.png

 

36 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I've been thinking a lot about the 'crispy dry' conditions around here and into southern OH.   I'm really surprised that I haven't heard more about wildfire threats.   If we don't get some decent rain in the next few weeks it's going to be an absolute tinder box out there.   Hell, we couldn't even squeeze a drop of rain out of a front that ended a heat wave and dropped our temps 30 degrees....just a dry windy front.

 

22 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Thankfully, it looks like the greatest Sunday/Monday rainfall totals will occur for those in the severest drought conditions. Hopefully southern Indiana will get in on the action. 

Apparently, "flash drought" is being used to describe the current conditions across the South by the National Drought Mitigation Center, a sudden increase in drought conditions as compared the normal slow onset drought.  NOAA and the University of Colorado published a summary paper on research concerning the flash drought the Plains endured in 2017. I had never heard this term used before reading this article:

https://www.wishtv.com/news/national/flash-drought-worsening-across-14-southern-us-states/

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Some breaks in the cloud cover currently in #NWOhioWx. Temperatures are 15-25°F cooler than 24 hours ago. #weather 

1237 PM Temperatures.jpg

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