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Post Tropical Storm Jerry... exiting stage right and about to dissipate

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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 44.9W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.  The
system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it approaches the
northern Leeward Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized
this morning.  Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the
Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical
depression.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the
satellite estimates.  The depression is forecast to move over
gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable
upper-level environment.  The only negative factor for
intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low
shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast
during the next several days.  The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain
hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.

Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt.  A strong deep-layer
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression
generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the
next few days.  The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days.  By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance.  The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side.  The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 12.9N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 13.8N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 14.7N  47.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 15.5N  50.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 16.3N  52.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 18.2N  59.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 20.2N  64.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 22.5N  69.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Looks like TD10 will follow the weakness in the ridge left after Humberto. A little early to be definitive but more than likely it will happen.

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24 minutes ago, Pluffmud said:

Looks like TD10 will follow the weakness in the ridge left after Humberto. A little early to be definitive but more than likely it will happen.

I agree.   Man the east coast(except for the brush with Dorian) seems untouchable for the most part this season...how long can it last???? 

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I wouldn't sleep on this system. The 12z Euro keeps the system weak, but it doesn't have it following the weakness leftover from Humberto. I think that since the retrograde has largely been taken off the table and a more progressive track has become more likely, the Bermuda ridge should have more time to build in.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I wouldn't sleep on this system. The 12z Euro keeps the system weak, but it doesn't have it following the weakness leftover from Humberto. I think that since the retrograde has largely been taken off the table and a more progressive track has become more likely, the Bermuda ridge should have more time to build in.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png

It just seems to me it would have to gain a decent amount of latitude the next 48 hours to have any shot at finding that weakness 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It just seems to me it would have to gain a decent amount of latitude the next 48 hours to have any shot at finding that weakness 

Did you see the 12z Euro? Sort of has the system make a loop before getting absorbed by another system coming out of the Eastern Caribbean? 

Also of note is the continued development of a major hurricane in the Central Atlantic (MDR).

qR8euoE.gif

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TD10 is getting its act together. Strong convection going up around the center. Evident banding forming. Probably looking at Jerry in short order, but this may take off rather rapidly tomorrow.5e3a99d884891ef39fecc56a4d24b17f.gif

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

TD10 is getting its act together. Strong convection going up around the center. Evident banding forming. Probably looking at Jerry in short order, but this may take off rather rapidly tomorrow.5e3a99d884891ef39fecc56a4d24b17f.gif

Beat me to it. This is one to watch for RI with a nascent core seeming to take hold. 

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11 pm (no real changes yet) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 180251
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 46.7W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

 

025327_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d be very surprised if this weren’t upgraded to a TS at 11. Very nice envelope of convection tonight over the center.

Surprise still a TD at 11 lol... disco explains why

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten has increased
and become better organized since the last advisory, and various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in
the 35-40 kt range.  However, just-received ASCAT-C data indicates
that, despite this increase in organization, the surface winds have
not yet reached 35 kt.  Based on this, the cyclone remains a 30 kt
depression for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 285/9.  The cyclone is to the south of a
low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the system
generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed
during the next 3-4 days.  Near the end of the forecast period, the
cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge and turn more
northwestward.  The track guidance is in generally good agreement
with this scenario, with the GFS near the northern edge of the
guidance and the HWRF remaining near the southern edge.  The new
forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the
guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected
consensus model.

The depression should be in an environment of light shear and over
warm water for the next 24-36 h, which should allow steady
strengthening during that time.  The shear is forecast to increase
after 36 h to the point where it may at least slow development, and
this is reflected in slight changes from the previous forecast.  The
new intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus through 48 h,
and then is above the consensus from 72-120 h.  It should be noted
that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane
as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 13.7N  46.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 14.4N  48.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 15.3N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.2N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 17.3N  56.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 19.5N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 21.5N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 24.5N  70.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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13 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I agree.   Man the east coast(except for the brush with Dorian) seems untouchable for the most part this season...how long can it last???? 

There's not even a trough in the east either, meaning double the boring.

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14 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I agree.   Man the east coast(except for the brush with Dorian) seems untouchable for the most part this season...how long can it last???? 

Until this blasted pattern breaks down... Heck, my town practially NEEDS a slow mover because we are over -17.00" for the year drought wise

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Jerry is here!  This is gonna be one to really watch due to the track.

Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 47.7W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 47.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A
west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected over the next few days.  On the forecast track, the system
will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Further strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the
time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

 

090345_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Ruh-Oh... Alabama, we gots a problem :

[Note, FYI, below TS Jerry potential track image, black sharpie extension, has been modified, altered, is fake news. Not to be used for planning decisions, honest... /s]

 

090345_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind 2ed.jpg

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11 hours ago, Windspeed said:

TD10 is getting its act together. Strong convection going up around the center. Evident banding forming. Probably looking at Jerry in short order, but this may take off rather rapidly tomorrow.5e3a99d884891ef39fecc56a4d24b17f.gif

Not an El Nino storm.. wonder if it will hold, or if it's just a blip. 

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