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Post Tropical Storm Jerry... exiting stage right and about to dissipate


yoda
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Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central
dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours.
Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb
flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt,
suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye
feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating
that the earlier intensification has probably continued.  Thus, the
initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better
estimate.

The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before
northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning.  The shear
increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air
to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone.
Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing
into Saturday.  Some re-strengthening is possible early next week
as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude
trough interaction.  The new NHC wind speed prediction has not
changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect
the above possibility.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A
large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to
steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the
next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the
north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast
follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the
then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday,
north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north-
northeastward by Monday/Tuesday.  The guidance has moved to the
northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger
mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge.  The NHC forecast
is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on
the western side of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are
possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 17.5N  55.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 18.4N  57.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 19.5N  60.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 20.7N  63.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 21.9N  65.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 24.9N  68.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 28.0N  68.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 33.0N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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22 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

What happened to NOAA2? It hasnt reported in awhile...

It was listed as a "Training Mission" so they may just be training and reporting when they can.  It got done flying over P.R. and is still going to the SE.

Quote

NOAA2 Training Mission
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance  |  Status: In Storm

As of 17:20 UTC Sep 19, 2019:

Aircraft Position: 17.80°N 65.32°W
Bearing: 117° at 258 kt
Altitude: 3111 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 14 kt at 130°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1008.4 mb

 

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

NOAA will list re-locations as training missions sometimes.  haven't had a chance to look but kermit could be heading to one of the leewards to prep scouting the next system which has a much better chance of being a threat.

That would make sense given where the storm is at the moment.  AF304 is en route to the storm at this moment (NOAA9 is still surveying the perimeter).

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8 pm update (Jerry getting robust... just 6 mph away from CAT 2 but getting closer to a direct Bermuda hit) -

Quote

000
WTNT35 KNHC 192358
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 56.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

 

204238_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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So we have Dorian coming close then OTS, OTS progressively east as the western side of the Atl. ridging gets beaten down.  That rubberband has got to snap and something's going to get caught under a robust westward building ridge at some point I would think.
Uh, you mean Jerry? Or talking about how close Dorian and Humberto DID come?

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30 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

So we have Dorian coming close then OTS, OTS progressively east as the western side of the Atl. ridging gets beaten down.  That rubberband has got to snap and something's going to get caught under a robust westward building ridge at some point I would think.

The general consensus I've read seems to be the 500mb pattern will favor recurves east of the CONUS the remainder of this season, but of course never say never when it comes to the weather and October is when things often spin out of the Caribbean and get nasty in the Gulf as we saw with Michael last year and to a lesser extent Nate the year before.

I don't know how much difference it would have made rain-wise for Beaumont, but with the way it spun up, imagine what Imelda could have done with another 24 hours over water.

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11 pm/2am/5am updates (now a CAT 2 moving along at a good clip, but with fluctuating pressure). The central line of the cone (verbatim) is a direct hit on Bermuda -

 

Quote

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 57.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

 

Quote

000
WTNT35 KNHC 200531
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
200 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 57.9W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
Quote

000
WTNT35 KNHC 200837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 58.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

 

083948_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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11 pm/2am/5am updates (now a CAT 2 moving along at a good clip, but with fluctuating pressure). The central line of the cone (verbatim) is a direct hit on Bermuda -
 
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMBULLETINHurricane Jerry Advisory Number  11NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL1020191100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...18.0N 57.2WABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

 
000WTNT35 KNHC 200531TCPAT5BULLETINHurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 11ANWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019200 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDISLANDS LATER TODAY...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...18.1N 57.9WABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

000WTNT35 KNHC 200837TCPAT5BULLETINHurricane Jerry Advisory Number  12NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDISLANDS AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...18.4N 58.7WABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

 
083948_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.bb7474f345857583a95e5204004ae87c.png
WNW at 290...

last few days it was 295, something to watch...

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

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13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

 
 
083948_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.bb7474f345857583a95e5204004ae87c.png
WNW at 290...

last few days it was 295, something to watch...

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

Was looking at the GFS 6z and the Euro 0z and it seems there's an expectation that Jerry will weaken as it moves past the Leewards (shear?) and then sortof gets itself back together and continues to restrengthen (but not by much) on its way past Bermuda.  The 6z GEFS appears to have initialized with the large dome of high pressure currently over my area, not in the right place and much further south (although it is supposed to move there eventually)!

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DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 59.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.  A gradual weakening trend is forecast to continue today, but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently
reported a minimum central pressure of 989 mb (29.20 inches).
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8 am and it is weakening and the big puffball is having issues forming some kind of recognizable eye -

Quote

057 
WTNT35 KNHC 201142
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
800 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 59.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

 

114421_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso2.truecolor.20190920.121253-833am-truecolor-09192019.gif

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Shreddola. Not totally surprising given that a lot of the guidance severely weakened Jerry as it approached this area. 

I think it's completely possible that the centers will decouple, with one piece heading towards the Caribbean and the other center continuing on the NW track. Several model runs had this scenario, including a few Euro runs. 

If this were to occur, the upper air environment is a lot more conducive for development in the Caribbean. 

goes16_ir_10L_201909201355.jpg?1853004

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Shreddola. Not totally surprising given that a lot of the guidance severely weakened Jerry as it approached this area. 

I think it's completely possible that the centers will decouple, with one piece heading towards the Caribbean and the other center continuing on the NW track. Several model runs had this scenario, including a few Euro runs. 

If this were to occur, the upper air environment is a lot more conducive for development in the Caribbean. 

goes16_ir_10L_201909201355.jpg?1853004

Just based on its appearance, it looked as if the upper and lower level portions of it were not aligned (stacked) nor moving at the same speed so it's like it was literally sliced in half and has been sliding apart in separate directions (I know that is a non-"technical" way of putting it but... :lol:)!  It's been interesting to "visually" see this happen compared to the almost "perfect" Dorian.

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Just based on its appearance, it looked as if the upper and lower level portions of it were not aligned (stacked) nor moving at the same speed so it's like it was literally sliced in half and has been sliding apart in separate directions (I know that is a non-"technical" way of putting it but... :lol:)!  It's been interesting to "visually" see this happen compared to the almost "perfect" Dorian.

Actually hoping this is the case honestly. It's the most exciting thing left from a weather enthusiasts perspective with this system since it will most certainly re-curve if the current track continues. If one of the centers can make it into the Caribbean it would be quite a game changer. 

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Actually hoping this is the case honestly. It's the most exciting thing left from a weather enthusiasts perspective with this system since it will most certainly re-curve if the current track continues. If one of the centers can make it into the Caribbean it would be quite a game changer. 

Well what it looks like is that the lower level has the circulation but the upper part is nothing but a big puff of clouds not really contributing much and that it has been "ejecting".

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Still a cane at 11 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 60.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
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Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Jerry is weakening quickly, and radar images from NOAA
show no sign of the eyewall reported on the last mission. Maximum
flight-level winds on the mission were about 78 kt, with SFMR values
near 70 kt, and the central pressure has risen about 10 mb
overnight.  These observations also agree with the latest satellite
imagery that shows a less organized cyclone, with the center on the
far northwestern edge of a distorted central dense overcast. A blend
of all these data gives an initial wind speed estimate of 75 kt.

Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at
15 kt.  The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow
down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered
around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge.  The
guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and
little change was made to the previous NHC prediction.  At longer
range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane
northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on
how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had
Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed
everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before
fully recurving the cyclone.  The new track forecast is considerably
slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as
continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even
more.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next
day or two, and some weakening is expected.  The intensity forecast
is reduced from the previous one, and could be a bit too high in
the short term given recent trends.  In a few days, the
aforementioned trough interaction is anticipated, but it is next to
impossible to know at this lead time whether the trough will weaken
or strengthen the cyclone, so no forecast change is made.  It is a
little tempting to raise the intensity by the end, given the recent
weaker mid-latitude trough in the models, but there's just too much
track uncertainty to mess with the intensity forecast at this time.


Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 18.8N  60.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 19.6N  62.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 20.9N  64.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 22.3N  66.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 23.6N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 26.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 29.0N  67.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 33.0N  64.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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