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Dorian

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18 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

The 3k NAM is a bit overdone for inland locations I think. It is overamped and I think a track that far inland is an outlier. Right now, I think the 60-70 mph gusts will be contained to the US 17 corridor and eastward for NC. If anyone sees hurricane gusts, I think it's going to be directly along the coast. The ECMWF may have the track right, but those gusts maps have been 10-20% higher than verification for the majority of areas during recent storms the past couple of years.

My TS states 40-50 with gusts to 65. Going to be interesting to see how it approaches the coast.

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30 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Wake Co is now under the TS Warning.

Got the alert on my phone from the FEMA app - highly recommended for those who don't have it. You can set alerts for certain types and for multiple locations, great if you have family or friends far away you're concerned about. 

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Hurricane Warning posted for OBX. Just got a notice on my phone. I'm in Kill Devil Hills.


My first time in Kill Devil Hills this summer. We stayed right across the street from the Wright Brothers Museum. Great people and great food! We want to make it an annual trip. Be safe. I hope everyone in your area comes through okay.


.

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4 hours ago, thess said:

Wake County schools closed tomorrow.

What a joke.  Next month Wake County Schools close for a breezy fall day!  So ridiculous.  I can certainly agree when winds are forecast to gust over 50mph for an extended period.  But keep in mind folks, there are areas all over this great nation where that's a perfectly normal day!  

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Looking to intercept.. Got a couple places planned..

CANNOT get onto the "Barrier Islands", (Mandatory evacuation )  though can intercept across the Inlet in two places.. .. grrr.. 

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Several Mets have been comparing Dorian's track to Matthew and noted the similar proximity to the coast. How fast/slow was Matthew compared to the expected forward speed of Dorian? I was in Rehab at the time after my hospital stay, and really have no memory of the storm as it was going on. What about the inland reach of the rain shield and wind speed.... then vs. now? Comparing tracks is kind of useless without other parameters to use as a gauge.

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This sucks. This absolutely sucks. I grew up in Wilmington (look at my name!) and my family still lives there. The entire place is still on pins and needles from Florence. The LAST thing they need is to be punched by the northern eyewall of a major. Ugh. 

Yeah, instead of doing the usual core disintegration a la Irene or Matthew or Florence, it's actually STRENGTHENING. It's always a bit scarier to watch these big hurricanes tighten up and gain a second wind; its like watching a 7 foot basketball player dribble a basketball with proficiency. All the classic signs (warmer eye, symmetry, constricting eyewall etc) are there. SSTs say this has about 12 more hours of strengthening before it hits the continental shelf and slides out of the warm gulf stream. Maybe it bottoms out at 949? 950? It's hard to guess these things but it has a little more deepening to do in my opinion. 

Until then, don't know what happens. It will be a bit harder to bring down, if this is a 125 mph storm by 12z tomorrow, there's a solid chance it stays a major as it zips by. 

The small saving grace is that it seems like model consensus brings this just a hair offshore, giving land the relatively weaker eyewall. Hopefully for the weary residents of Cape Fear this doesn't sneak onshore. 

 

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5 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

This sucks. This absolutely sucks. I grew up in Wilmington (look at my name!) and my family still lives there. The entire place is still on pins and needles from Florence. The LAST thing they need is to be punched by the northern eyewall of a major. Ugh. 

Yeah, instead of doing the usual core disintegration a la Irene or Matthew or Florence, it's actually STRENGTHENING. It's always a bit scarier to watch these big hurricanes tighten up and gain a second wind; its like watching a 7 foot basketball player dribble a basketball with proficiency. All the classic signs (warmer eye, symmetry, constricting eyewall etc) are there. SSTs say this has about 12 more hours of strengthening before it hits the continental shelf and slides out of the warm gulf stream. Maybe it bottoms out at 949? 950? It's hard to guess these things but it has a little more deepening to do in my opinion. 

Until then, don't know what happens. It will be a bit harder to bring down, if this is a 125 mph storm by 12z tomorrow, there's a solid chance it stays a major as it zips by. 

The small saving grace is that it seems like model consensus brings this just a hair offshore, giving land the relatively weaker eyewall. Hopefully for the weary residents of Cape Fear this doesn't sneak onshore. 

 

Hope your family stays safe. Is this trajectory the worst case scenario for surge? 

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Local stations here in Charleston surprisingly haven’t even started doing continuous coverage yet for the storm, even though we’re under 12 hours away from most of the immediate metro area potentially getting 80-100 mph wind gusts. 

Only Channel 5 is even running hourly updates. Figuring this is because of the late-night pass, but there’s been storms before where they started doing almost continuous coverage at least a day out. 

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IMO it is because the storm has been covered for over a week and is currently several orders of magnitude weaker than it was two days ago. If Dorian had slid across the Bahamas as a Cat 1, strengthened to a Cat 2 as it made the turn up the coast and now was on the cusp of becoming a Major hurricane for the first time as it neared Charleston the storm would be handled much differently by the news organizations. 

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If it looks to take the track the NAM just ran which is similar to the Ukie/Euro/ICON etc then this board will be hopping tomorrow as a potential  strong Cat 2 or even Cat 3 bears down on MHX and then across the IBX to Nags Head....thats would be a big hit from the Triangle to the coast. 

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36 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Hope your family stays safe. Is this trajectory the worst case scenario for surge? 

Thank you. They'll be good, although you never know which storm is the one to knock that pine tree in your back yard over. Just generally stressed out, it's the little things. My cousin whose a UNCW student had a really hard time finding a place to live this year because Florence constricted the housing market. I had a few friends that had to run go fund mes for various Florence casualties (cars, roofs, etc.) Speaking of roofs, my high school English teacher showed a picture of the patch from Florence he's putting a bigger patch on because he's still on the waiting list for a new roof after Florence. Everything is backlogged. And to think my family had things easy!  

TBH, I have no idea how surge will react to this oblique landfall angle, I wish I did. Most of the news stations are going with 4-7 feet which seemed like a great forecast 12 hours ago. 

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As of the 11 PM Advisory, Dorian is projected to still have TS-force winds off the shores of Greenland on Monday.  Crazy.  And that's after swiping Nova Scotia as a hurricane on Saturday.

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NHC discussion of the intensity:

Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so,
but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result
in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same
as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2
or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United
States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which
unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone.

 

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