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Dorian


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9 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

...And now has a 956mb Major Hurricane off the SC Coastline... I hope the Carolina's haven't let their guards down!  

Sure as heck have.....

So far this has just been a FL thing.

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Models are still very inconsistent, IMO. I definitely wouldn’t put any stock into any particular one as of now. This ridge is going to be the ultimate deciding factor as to where this things goes. If the ridge gets weaker or moves east, it’s going to have major implications on the the track. There are still many model runs to go. And so much times for things to change. We saw what happened with Irma and how much of a mess that was.


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Shazam! Dorian starting to look more like Matthew in track and intensity. FL understandably getting all the attention, but everyone near the coast of GA, SC, NC needs to keep both eyes peeled on the forecast. VA probably should as well.

Cautiously optimistic major flooding potential doesn't extend to inland areas of Carolinas.

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This could end up being a fairly decent miss, seems odd the models had the ridge so overdone in the short range though....still a lot to worry about, that timing on the turn, hell does it actually turn,  how far off the coast it rides, does it get further N and W and come into SC or NC etc....just yesterday we were pretty sure S Florida was screwed and now we are talking OTS being possible if not likely, I mean hell if the models were that wrong yesterday how much faith do we have in them for 5 days from now lol. 

 

024334_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.1e132f50ce860ae3d2fe13f2d4e3b75b.png

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On the latest GFS run Dorian rakes the North Carolina coastline albeit as a slightly weaker storm.  The past twenty four hour model runs have me concerned for the Carolinas receving the brunt of this storm as it moves up the Southeast coast.  It's still early in the game but the Carolinas definitely need to keep an eye on Dorian.

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19 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

GFS was a smack down for NC..pretty much a Floyd track....

right over my house pretty much...I am sure it will only change 100 more times between now and then, though this run was much faster allowing it to make landfall before getting kicked OTS....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.thumb.png.c385cf1e8417d2503cc121315fa514f0.png

Tracking right over your house. 6-7 days from now.

That's enough time for it to trend away from you, and then trend back closer again..

 

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

GFS was a smack down for NC..pretty much a Floyd track....

right over my house pretty much...I am sure it will only change 100 more times between now and then, though this run was much faster allowing it to make landfall before getting kicked OTS....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.thumb.png.c385cf1e8417d2503cc121315fa514f0.png

I’ve been watching from a distance for many years and it seems that either the models are becoming less reliable, the weather is becoming harder to predict, or my memory is getting worse. 

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Oh Jesus, What great Track(s) to wake-up to this AM..

I'm in the process of Moving..   To a  Home *almost* on the ICW Waterfront this week..  

whoopie! I'll be living here..  34.309653, -77.737413

Please someone UN-PLUG the ILM hurricane magnet! stat! 

At least I'll be able to get a good price on the Generator I'm selling..  ;) I have Two.. 

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1 hour ago, SENC said:

Oh Jesus, What great Track(s) to wake-up to this AM..

I'm in the process of Moving..   To a  Home *almost* on the ICW Waterfront this week..  

whoopie! I'll be living here..  34.309653, -77.737413

Please someone UN-PLUG the ILM hurricane magnet! stat! 

At least I'll be able to get a good price on the Generator I'm selling..  ;) I have Two.. 

Right I put a post yesterday telling my family in Wilmington and Jacksonville NC that it's going to curve and may affect them. I guess because NC sticks out in the ocean we always take a hit with these type of storms.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Man I was hoping this storm would stay away from us in the Carolinas. Florence caused a lot of work for me last year. Our best chance now (as it looks) is it stays off the coast and then goes out to sea. I think that's a possibility we (I) can hope for. Big model runs upcoming.   

Still so far out I am skeptical/optimistic, the issues for us are the turn keeps happening farther east this keeps the storm further away from land and this should lead to a stronger storm up the coast. One saving grace with earlier runs was IF it does end up in NC the track was right on or just off the coast this would weaken the storm quite a bit, the further east it stays the less chance it weakens as much. The upside is the further east it is the more likely it is to turn OTS and miss all together. The thing to watch now is the energy in the mid west the models hint at that could capture Dorian or a significant increase in timing and less of a slowdown when/if it turns which would allow Dorian to get farther north ( onshore NC ) before kicking out....

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4 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

8/31/2019, 8:00 AM Advisory on Dorian:

N5V1KFO.png

There's your history....Storms just don't want to make landfall in central Florida to the SC/Ga boarder. Of course it's not them specifically, it's the upper air patterns (at that latitude) recurving the storm from westward to eastward motion. Only problem is the SC/NC coast line juts out too much for the recurve to miss (sometimes). 

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

There's your history....Storms just don't want to make landfall in central Florida to the SC/Ga boarder. Of course it's not them specifically, it's the upper air patterns (at that latitude) recurving the storm from westward to eastward motion. Only problem is the SC/NC coast line juts out too much for the recurve to miss (sometimes). 

Once he passes 75W there has to be a turn to the NE at some point to miss land...the good news is we have several days before its even suppose to turn much less get up this way we are talking next Thur at the earliest unless the models really speed up

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Still so far out I am skeptical/optimistic, the issues for us are the turn keeps happening farther east this keeps the storm further away from land and this should lead to a stronger storm up the coast. One saving grace with earlier runs was IF it does end up in NC the track was right on or just off the coast this would weaken the storm quite a bit, the further east it stays the less chance it weakens as much. The upside is the further east it is the more likely it is to turn OTS and miss all together. The thing to watch now is the energy in the mid west the models hint at that could capture Dorian or a significant increase in timing and less of a slowdown when/if it turns which would allow Dorian to get farther north ( onshore NC ) before kicking out....

Yeah, I guess we're in the sights now. One other thing to look at is how fast this storm moves. With Florence it was the flooding from a slow/stalled storm. So as you said, if it's weaker and then if it's also fast moving, a SC/NC hit may not be too bad. 

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