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August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Completely missed everything on the uws. The line seemed to part right around Manhattan 

Yeah got nothing working in lower Manhattan, but the Bx looks soaked. This summer I always get hit at home. All the times there has been a 30% chance of t storms, it's actually happened I'd guess 85% of the time.

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44 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Very close CTG strikes all around me, looking like flash grenades. My cue to go indoors.

Best storm of the year for me, though the bar for that title was on the ground. The microburst would’ve been #1 but I missed it.

Yea this was a nice surprise. Storm blew up as it came onshore. Didn’t see that coming

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Parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas experienced record warmth today. Highlights included: Baltimore: 99° (old record: 97°, 1914); Boston: 95° (old record: 92°, 1906, 1966, and 1983); Norfolk: 96° (tied record set in 1912 and tied in 1954); Richmond: 99° (old record: 98°, 1914 and 2002); Sterling, VA: 95° (tied record set in 2002); and, Washington, DC: 98° (tied record set in 2002).

Anchorage, which came off its warmest month on record, remains on track to record its warmest summer on record. At present, based on the sensitivity analysis, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.0°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also a chance that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +10.86 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was --1.006. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August.

On August 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.128 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.751.

Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 61% probability of having a warmer than normal August. In terms of receiving 50" or more precipitation, New York City's implied probabilities are 65% (1869-2018 historical period) and 77% (1971-2018 period).

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