NycStormChaser Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: Around what time was this photograph taken? 8:30 PM on the dot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Picked up 0.57" of rain for the day yesterday. Storm total rainfall 2.42" Current temp 68/DP 65/RH 92% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Last 8 days of July are averaging 79degs., or 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is +3.2[79.7]. July should end near +3.0[79.5]. 68.0* here at 6am. 78.6* by Noon-with semi-innocent cumulus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2019 Author Share Posted July 24, 2019 JFK just experienced a first for July heavy rain and heat. This was the 2nd heaviest 2 day rainfall on record for July. But all the other top 5 years were significantly cooler. Maximum 2-Day Total Precipitation for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 3.69 1969-07-29 0 2 3.66 2019-07-23 0 3 3.51 1996-07-31 0 4 3.45 1997-07-25 0 5 3.42 2000-07-27 0 July 1969....75.0...-0.8....max...97 July 2019....79.1...+3.5...max...99 July 1996....72.2...-3.6....max...87 July 1997....74.6...-1.2....max...94 July 2000....72.4...-3.4....max...93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Euro weeklies are hot/dry starting next week on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2019 Author Share Posted July 24, 2019 Continuation of the July 2010’s above normal temperature departures 80% to 90% of the years. July......EWR....NYC...LGA 2019....+3.4....+3.2....+4.0...so far 2018....+0.8....+1.1.....+2.4 2017....-0.1.....+0.3.....+0.7 2016...+2.5.....+2.2.....+3.7 2015...+1.6.....+2.3.....+1.8 2014....-0.4.....-0.4.......-0.4 2013....+3.5...+3.3......+3.8 2012....+3.4...+2.3......+3.0 2011....+5.3...+3.7......+3.0 2010...+4.9....+4.8......+5.4 https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126293596909367301 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 I wrote up a quick recap with some of my footage and photographs of the past 6 days around here. 3 days of severe weather and a 3 day heatwave. http://www.nicholasisabella.com/a-wild-week-of-weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Euro weeklies are hot/dry starting next week on.... i have a hard time seeing any dry or prolonged dry period materialize. bet on warm and wet and with the fast pacific flow nothing lingering more than 3-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, SACRUS said: i have a hard time seeing any dry or prolonged dry period materialize. bet on warm and wet and with the fast pacific flow nothing lingering more than 3-5 days. My station had close to 70" of precipitation in 2018, and is on a similar pace this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 7 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Euro weeklies are hot/dry starting next week on.... I'm still waiting for my deep blocking and feet of snow the weeklies kept promising me last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm still waiting for my deep blocking and feet of snow the weeklies kept promising me last winter. And the big spring torch that was always just around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2019 Author Share Posted July 24, 2019 High end EF-1 tornado with estimated 110 winds ripped roof off Cape Cod motel. One of the most dramatic tornado videos from the Northeast. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1154119467468595200/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 7/24 TEB: 86 EWR: 86 PHL: 86 LGA: 85 JFK: 84 TTN: 83 ISP: 83 NYC: 83 ACY: 82 BLM: 82 New Bnswk: -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Historic heat scorched Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands with all-time national record high temperatures. All-time high temperatures in western Europe included: Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweilger, Germany: 104° (39.9°C) (new national high temperature record); Beauvechain, Belgium: 100°; Bierset, Belgium: 100°; Brussels: 99°; Den Helder, Netherlands: 95°; Dusseldorf, Germany: 102°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 103° (39.3°C) (new national high temperature record); Eisenborn, Belgium: 97°; Florennes, Belgium: 99°; Gilze, Netherlands: 102°; Groningen, Netherlands: 97°; Kleine-Brogel, Belgium: 102° (38.9°C) (new national high temperature record); Nancy, France: 104°; Saarbrucken, Germany: 99°; Schaffen, Belgium: 102°; Thuilley-aux-Groseilles, France: 104°; and, Volkel, Netherlands: 102°. More extreme temperatures are likely tomorrow. Paris will likely challenge and break its highest temperature on record. London could see the thermometer challenge its all-time record, though there is some risk that clouds could move in just before the record could be surpassed. In contrast, numerous record low temperatures were recorded across parts of the Southeastern United States this morning. No monthly records were broken. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 99% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.4°-65.2°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -3.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.970. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. Preliminary MJO data for July 23 was not available. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 98%. Most likely range: 78.8°-80.2° (2.3° to 3.7° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 I just saw a meteor, from my perspective it had a tragectory of se-nwish. Happened ~11pm. I'm looking to the ENE , ~6 mi SW of WTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: I just saw a meteor, from my perspective it had a tragectory of se-nwish. Happened ~11pm. I'm looking to the ENE , ~6 mi SW of WTC Sounds like an early Capricornid. Handful of bright fireballs per night in the waning days of July into early August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Last 7 days of July are averaging 79degs., or 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is +3.0[79.5]. July should end near +2.9[79.4]. 72.0* here at 6am. 73* at 7am. 74.1* at 8am. 76.4* at 9am. 79 5* by 11am. 80.6* by 1pm, with innocent cumulus to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2019 Author Share Posted July 25, 2019 With JJA past the midpoint, our area was very close to the warmest temperature departures for the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 62 this morning. Refreshing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 27 minutes ago, psv88 said: 62 this morning. Refreshing felt fall like last night in the late evening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 54 was my low. Hoodie weather until the sun comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2019 Author Share Posted July 25, 2019 Where was this historic -NAO pattern during the winter? It’s getting ready to significantly drop again after setting the new record. The LGA 100 degree day coincided with a brief rise to positive along with the record breaking Pacific Northwest jet streak. Also notice how the far North Atlantic SST’s have rapidly risen to near record levels under this pattern. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1153756526630318081 NAO+ anyone? After being 88 days in a negative phase, the North Atlantic Oscillation has turned today to positive. This beats the previous record by almost three weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Wow no wonder the Arctic ice is getting decimated this season. I wonder how this will factor in during hurricane season. The 2012 record low season coincided with Hurricane Sandy, but unsure if that's related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 1PM - just a splendid afternoon LGA: 84 PHL: 84 EWR: 84 NYC: 83 JFK: 83 ISP: 83 TEB: 82 ACY: 81 BLM: 81 TTN: 81 New Bnswk: -- (site down since 7/23) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Going forward we should see warming each day starting tomorrow with 90s possible Sat and likely/widespread Sunday (7/28) - Wed (7/31) before the next front and drop back towards normal 8/1 - 8/6. This reminds me of the progression after the end of June heat wave in Europe we see the strongest heat about 14 days after and I expect the same with stronger heat towards 8/9.. Still think we'll find a way to be on the continued wet/stormier than normal side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 The second historic heat wave of the summer in western Europe crested today with widespread all-time high temperature records being established. The national records set in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands were surpassed today. National records set today were: Belgium: Beitem: 105° (40.7°C); old record: Kleine-Brogel: 102° (38.9°C), July 24, 2019 Germany: Lingen: 109° (42.6°C); old record: Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweilger: 104° (39.9°C), July 24, 2019 Until today, Germany had never had a 40.0°C reading. Today, 25 locations in Germany registered high temperatures of 40.0°C or above. Netherlands: Gilze en Rijen: 105° (40.7°C); old record: Eindhoven: 103° (39.3°C), July 24, 2019 All-time record high temperatures were also set at among the following locations: Antwerp, Belgium: 104°; Beauvais, France: 106°; Beauvechain, Belgium: 104°; Bierset, Belgium: 102°; Brussels: 104°; Cambridge, United Kingdom: 101° (38.1°C)--2nd hottest ever in the UK; Charleroi, Belgium: 104°; Chateaudun, France: 106°; Chievres, Belgium: 104°; Cologne, Germany: 106°; Deelen, Netherlands: 102°; Diepholz, Germany: 100°; Dortmund, Germany: 102°; Duisburg, Germany: 106°; Dusseldorf, Germany: 105°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 105°; Evreux, France: 106°; Florennes, Belgium: 102°; Frankfurt: 104°; Hupsel, Netherlands: 105°; Koksijde, Belgium: 104°; Le Havre, France: 100°; Le Mans, France: 106°; Le Touquet, France: 102°; Lille, France: 106°; London-Heathrow: 100° (tied all-time record); Luxembourg: 102°; Maastricht, Netherlands: 102°; Mannheim City, Germany: 104°; Meppen, Germany: 102°; Noervenich, Germany: 105°; Orleans, France: 106°; Ostend, Belgium: 102°; Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport: 106°; Paris-Le Bourget Airport: 108°; Paris-Orly Airport: 108°; Paris-Parc de Montsouris: 109°; Rotterdam, Netherlands: 99°; Rouen, France: 106°; Saarbrucken, Germany: 100°; Schaffen, Belgium: 104°; Spangdahlem, Germany: 101°; St. Dizier, France: 106°; St. Gatien, France: 102°; Tonisvorst, Germany: 106°; Tours, France: 106°; Troyes, France: 108°; Uccle, Belgium: 103°; Volkel, Netherlands: 104°; Westdorpe, Netherlands: 105°; Wiesbaden, Germany: 102°; Wilhelminadorp, Netherlands: 105°; and, Woensdrecht, Netherlands: 104°. In terms of whether climate change played a role, it is likely that attribution studies will come to similar conclusions as those drawn concerning the June 2019 historic heat. That study can be found at: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Science_France_heat_June_2019.pdf The extreme heat will likely shift northward tomorrow. Saturday and perhaps Sunday could feature record warmth across parts of Norway and Sweden. Meanwhile record cold could develop in eastern Finland and a portion of western Russia during the latter part of the weekend and early part of next week. By the middle of next week, most of Europe will likely be colder than normal. The coldest anomalies relative to normal will be centered over eastern Europe, including western Russia. Numerous record low temperatures were recorded across parts of the Southeastern United States this morning. Record lows included Austin: 64° (old record: 65°, 1901 and 1924) and Little Rock: 60° (old record: 61°, 2000). No monthly records were broken. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 99% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.1°-64.8°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -5.60 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.986. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. The preliminary MJO data for July 24 was not available. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 99%. Most likely range: 78.9°-80.0° (2.4° to 3.5° above normal). Finally, on July 23, Arctic sea ice extent was 6.665 million square kilometers (JAXA). That is the lowest figure for July 25. However, over the next 30 days, Arctic sea ice extent would fall by nearly 3.0 million square kilometers in 2012 en route to a record low minimum figure of 3.177 million square kilometers on September 16. 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CIK62 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 The last 6 days of July are averaging 79.5degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +2.9[79.4] and will probably end that way. 72.1* here at 6am. 75.7* by 8am. 78.4* by 11am. Still 78.4* at Noon, and for the third straight day, innocent cumulus buildup to the west. 79.4* at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2019 Author Share Posted July 26, 2019 The monthly minimum temperatures were among the warmest ever recorded during the month of July. All of our stations were 1st or 2nd place finishes. Temperatures couldn’t fall very much with the record dewpoints and heat. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 66 6 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2008 66 0 2 2019 65 6 - 1993 65 0 - 1970 65 0 - 1955 65 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 66 0 2 2019 65 6 - 2015 65 0 - 1970 65 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 61 6 - 2012 61 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 64 6 2 1994 63 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORI AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 64 6 - 1994 64 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 -NAO is really getting going on models, I suspect it will become stronger. -EPO is now showing up too. A lot of arctic ice melt pattern, could actually be bad for the Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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