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Hoosier

June 2019 General Discussion

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Where is the obligatory CFSv2 from 5/31 for June? 

Without posting the crappy maps, it looks like it's calling for near normal temps and near normal precip with below normal precip for the northern part of the subforum.

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Where is the obligatory CFSv2 from 5/31 for June? 

Without posting the crappy maps, it looks like it's calling for near normal temps and near normal precip with below normal precip for the northern part of the subforum.

:sun:

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201906.thumb.gif.96a1027b8678352cd5a5fed5f10e2ead.gif

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10 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

Rain gauge from last month was at 9.8.  Hoping June isn’t so wet.  

looks like parts of Lake County IL got decent rains this morning,..over an inch in spots

please put your rain shield up this month so we can get the IL river down here back to normal level 12-13 ft

Graph of  Gage height, feet

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12z GFS still very wet later next week with that cut off low ejecting out and sucking up huge amounts of tropical moisture

also poorly modeled heavy warm core rains often fall on the North and NW flanks..sort of like a  TROWAL .and it is expected to almost stall

 

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3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

12z GFS still very wet later next week with that cut off low ejecting out and sucking up huge amounts of tropical moisture

also poorly modeled heavy warm core rains often fall on the North and NW flanks..sort of like a  TROWAL .and it is expected to almost stall

 

Seems like these sorts of scenarios give this region its heaviest rains, could be bad if it plays out as modeled. 

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Another smoky sky day.  

Was reading about the Canada fires. Can't believe how bad they already are on June 1.

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2 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Seems like these sorts of scenarios give this region its heaviest rains, could be bad if it plays out as modeled. 

EURO brings in a big blocking high in from the north shoving the system back south..it basically stalls over AR days 6-10..

dumps large amounts over lower OH river into AR/OK more south then 00z run

of course it will change

 

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4 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

12z GFS still very wet later next week with that cut off low ejecting out and sucking up huge amounts of tropical moisture

also poorly modeled heavy warm core rains often fall on the North and NW flanks..sort of like a  TROWAL .and it is expected to almost stall

 

 

4 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Seems like these sorts of scenarios give this region its heaviest rains, could be bad if it plays out as modeled. 

Lock it in! :sarcasm:

 

1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

EURO brings in a big blocking high in from the north shoving the system back south..it basically stalls over AR days 6-10..

dumps large amounts over lower OH river into AR/OK more south then 00z run

of course it will change

 

As for the current EURO run:

image.png.cad6a39bd28edf63a3ff232e1fd4556a.png

2 hours ago, Jonger said:

Hey look... more rain!

Will it ever take a break.

DAY has not had a drier-than-normal month since last October. If June ends up like the past several months, it would be the 8th consecutive month with above-normal precipitation. Using 1961-1990 normals, the longest stretch of above-normal precipitation that I could find for DAY was 11 consecutive months that took place from January through November of 1993, which December of that year was the only month with below-normal precipitation. Something tells me there has never been a year where every single month of a calendar year recorded above-normal precipitation, nor has there been a stretch of above-normal precipitation of 12 consecutive months or more.

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How do you even find the 1971-2000 averages by city?  Stuff is usually set to 1981-2010 as the default these days.  

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Between the flooding out in the plains for the cattle farmers, and the flooding in the Midwest for crop farmers, a wetter than normal June will be a  disaster. 

Local farmers had a meeting yesterday pertaining to crop insurance, if crops aren’t in the ground by the 5th, the insurance is voided. 

Heard a rumor some farmers are opting even planting and just taking an insurance check. It’s bad guys. 

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7 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Between the flooding out in the plains for the cattle farmers, and the flooding in the Midwest for crop farmers, a wetter than normal June will be a  disaster. 

Local farmers had a meeting yesterday pertaining to crop insurance, if crops aren’t in the ground by the 5th, the insurance is voided. 

Heard a rumor some farmers are opting even planting and just taking an insurance check. It’s bad guys. 

That’s not quit right. June 5 is the late planting date for most of illinois. After that date you lose 3% a day of coverage. They can take prevent plant after the fifth. Soy beans late planting date is June 20. 

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My lawn is in amazing shape right now. Usually I don't have this kind of lawn density until late September. The summer heat and dry spells usually set things back and by the time autumn arrives, grass conditions peak. Not this year.

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From what I've seen, most outlets are calling for a warmer than average summer, with June perhaps being coolest relative to average.  Of course there's multiple ways to get there... some high end heat spells or just consistently warmer than average (especially with lows) or warm stretches just outweighing the cool ones.  I do think that if the pattern does not begin to dry out, it will be tougher to build intense heat to the west.

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Good chance of snow mixing with rain from Algonquin Park (2.5 hours north of Toronto) north into the Val-d'Or regions of Quebec tonight. 

 

If that verifies that means a good chance that only July and August dont see snow in that region. By Late September its not unheard of to get flurries up there. 

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46 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

From what I've seen, most outlets are calling for a warmer than average summer, with June perhaps being coolest relative to average.  Of course there's multiple ways to get there... some high end heat spells or just consistently warmer than average (especially with lows) or warm stretches just outweighing the cool ones.  I do think that if the pattern does not begin to dry out, it will be tougher to build intense heat to the west.

June is probably going to be a write-off. With the highest temperature of the year so far at 88 degrees just over a week ago (May 25th), it's going to take until at least next month to try to exceed it.

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June is probably going to be a write-off. With the highest temperature of the year so far at 88 degrees just over a week ago (May 25th), it's going to take until at least next month to try to exceed it.

lol


.

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3 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

WTF Euro? and CMC

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

That looks like that potential system coming out of the Bay of Campeche.  Pretty early to get something but we had Alberto last May and given how wet it has been, it seems like it just wants to find ways to rain.  :axe:

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11 hours ago, Spartman said:

June is probably going to be a write-off. With the highest temperature of the year so far at 88 degrees just over a week ago (May 25th), it's going to take until at least next month to try to exceed it.

giphy.gif

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31 overnight.  Glad I brought most plants inside and covered the rest.  Hopefully this will be the last frost/freeze for a while.

Leaf-out is about 50% now... And even with nearly 8" of rain in May haven't seen a skeeter yet! Very late start to bug season.

D8Io2xYX4AImqN4.thumb.jpg.a6eb3afa4b0870dc9f72b519ea0f45d0.jpg

62138645_2691114737585067_3184901632202637312_n.thumb.png.04166756894cf5ead07b3697b9dbcdb1.png

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On 6/3/2019 at 8:03 AM, weatherbo said:

31 overnight.  Glad I brought most plants inside and covered the rest.  Hopefully this will be the last frost/freeze for a while.

Leaf-out is about 50% now... And even with nearly 8" of rain in May haven't seen a skeeter yet! Very late start to bug season.

D8Io2xYX4AImqN4.thumb.jpg.a6eb3afa4b0870dc9f72b519ea0f45d0.jpg

62138645_2691114737585067_3184901632202637312_n.thumb.png.04166756894cf5ead07b3697b9dbcdb1.png

 What a map for June! 45 at DTW but upper 30s in outlying areas

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Going to need the big rally cap to get to the forecasted low 80s.  Sky brightening a bit and looks like more sun later so should at least get deep into the 70s.

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Looks like a dullish stretch coming up around here.  Not much in the way of severe chances or heavy rains.   

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