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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

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Just now, Witness Protection Program said:

No confirmed reports of building collapses.

Talking of searching through rubble and clearing rubble and grim talk on scanner, probably causing the confusion.

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Very heavy hail expected just over or east of Joplin, MO as a supercell has strengthened over the last 20 minutes, it is moving eastward away from the city, it is likely following a warm front out ahead of it producing warm and moist southerly inflow into the storm center, this could lead to a potential tornado.

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The size of the tornado that went through Jefferson City was amazing. Crazy how yesterday was worse than Monday when Monday's threat received all the hype beforehand. Yesterday went from a 0 to a 10 in just a couple of hours.

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Does anyone have the text for the Jefferson City Tornado Emergency? I believe it was a first for the LSX office

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Does anyone have the text for the Jefferson City Tornado Emergency? I believe it was a first for the LSX office

I think you’re right. That is a bit surprising given the two significant tornadoes that’ve gone right through densely populated areas of St. Charles & St. Louis Counties and St. Louis City in 2011 and 2013.

 

 

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Sounds like we got quite fortunate yesterday and last night. The Carl Junction/Golden City cell seems to have avoided the most populous areas. If it had tracked just a little further south at peak intensity, we would have probably seen catastrophic tornado damage with that cell somewhere in that area. 

The Jefferson City tornado appears to have avoided being a worst case scenario too, though it came darn close. It appears poorly built structures were lofted by it, which explains the radar presentation we saw after. The CC drop, and debris falling out of the sky well out ahead of the storm, was highly suggestive of an EF4+ tornado. Not saying we didn’t get that kind of damage somewhere, but it seems like the worst case scenario was avoided with that one as well. 

Factor in that storms didn’t quite take off by the  OKC metro, and we really dodged a bullet on the whole. Thoughts are with those who were a lot less lucky yesterday.

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9 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Sounds like we got quite fortunate yesterday and last night. The Carl Junction/Golden City cell seems to have avoided the most populous areas. If it had tracked just a little further south, we would have probably seen catastrophic tornado damage with that cell. 

The Jefferson City tornado appears to have skimmed the south side of the City, avoiding the more populous parts. It appears poorly built structures were lofted by it, which explains the radar presentation we saw after. The CC drop, and debris falling out of the sky well out ahead of the storm, was highly suggestive of an EF4+ tornado. Not saying we didn’t get that kind of damage somewhere, but it seems like the worst case scenario was avoided with that one as well. 

Factor in that storms didn’t quite take off by the  OKC metro, and we really dodged a bullet on the whole. Thoughts are with those who were a lot less lucky yesterday.

Agreed, things could've been a lot worse. Damage in Golden City looks pretty extensive, given how the storm started cycling just west of the city they probably avoided the worst. Some of the daytime pictures of the Jefferson City tornado show some brick structures severely damaged and some stripped down to very little, though it seems like the most damage was done in a more industrial area in the western part ot the city. 

The advanced warning and overall emergency preparedness is top notch in this country, the NWS/SPC did an amazing job yesterday. 

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This video of the Okmulgee tornado has a great horizontal vortices starting at around 1:40 into the video

 

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6 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Sounds like we got quite fortunate yesterday and last night. The Carl Junction/Golden City cell seems to have avoided the most populous areas. If it had tracked just a little further south, we would have probably seen catastrophic tornado damage with that cell. 

The Jefferson City tornado appears to have skimmed the south side of the City, avoiding the more populous parts. It appears poorly built structures were lofted by it, which explains the radar presentation we saw after. The CC drop, and debris falling out of the sky well out ahead of the storm, was highly suggestive of an EF4+ tornado. Not saying we didn’t get that kind of damage somewhere, but it seems like the worst case scenario was avoided with that one as well. 

Factor in that storms didn’t quite take off by the  OKC metro, and we really dodged a bullet on the whole. Thoughts are with those who were a lot less lucky yesterday.

Carl Junction is basically a bed room community to Joplin, and that tornado went through one of the main neighborhoods, Briarbrook. The damage was significant, but that tornado simply wasn't strong enough to cause catastrophic damage. It was mostly tree and roof damage from that tornado, at least in the Carl Junction area. It may have been stronger further east of there, but at the time tn made closest approach to Joplin, it was simply not strong enough to do catastrophic damage. The Jefferson City storm went basically right through town, it was on the south side of town, and then into the downtown area. Probably not the most populated area in town, but there are a significant number of homes in the impacted area.

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The Jefferson City tornado took probably the 2nd worst track into the city. Mind you, it’s one of the smallest state capitals in the nation, so the track last night was about as bad as it could get. The only track that would’ve been worse was an ESE trajectory right down US 50, crossing the entire breadth of the city from west to east.


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8 minutes ago, Calderon said:

The Jefferson City tornado took probably the 2nd worst track into the city. Mind you, it’s one of the smallest state capitals in the nation, so the track last night was about as bad as it could get. The only track that would’ve been worse was an ESE trajectory right down US 50, crossing the entire breadth of the city from west to east.


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Yeah, saying that storm skimmed the south side of the city is just incredibly misguided.

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31 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Carl Junction is basically a bed room community to Joplin, and that tornado went through one of the main neighborhoods, Briarbrook. The damage was significant, but that tornado simply wasn't strong enough to cause catastrophic damage. It was mostly tree and roof damage from that tornado, at least in the Carl Junction area. It may have been stronger further east of there, but at the time tn made closest approach to Joplin, it was simply not strong enough to do catastrophic damage. The Jefferson City storm went basically right through town, it was on the south side of town, and then into the downtown area. Probably not the most populated area in town, but there are a significant number of homes in the impacted area.

Looks like maybe EF-2 damage in Carl Junction based on the roof damage/decking being gone. Estimates are 100 homes damaged. Moderate damage to a couple of homes in Oronogo. All those trees though. It's a big mess. 

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1 minute ago, JoMo said:

Looks like maybe EF-2 damage in Carl Junction based on the roof damage/decking being gone. Estimates are 100 homes damaged. Moderate damage to a couple of homes in Oronogo. All those trees though. It's a big mess. 

Yeah, that is similar to what I have been hearing. Definitely significant, but far from catastrophic.

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19 minutes ago, Calderon said:

The Jefferson City tornado took probably the 2nd worst track into the city. Mind you, it’s one of the smallest state capitals in the nation, so the track last night was about as bad as it could get. The only track that would’ve been worse was an ESE trajectory right down US 50, crossing the entire breadth of the city from west to east.


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I should apologize. What I meant to say was it didn’t take take the worst possible track into the city. I’ll edit my post.

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The Nuyaka tornado was very small in size but pretty violent and was absolutely hauling ass when it crossed this road.

 

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6 minutes ago, Crazieman said:

SPC calling moderate risk again, TX panhandle.

I can't remember a time they've issued moderate three days in a row.

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1 hour ago, Calderon said:

I think you’re right. That is a bit surprising given the two significant tornadoes that’ve gone right through densely populated areas of St. Charles & St. Louis Counties and St. Louis City in 2011 and 2013.

 

 

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I don't think they liked the idea. In 2006 on both March 11th and 12th they used some vividly worded warnings with headlines like "extremely dangerous storm approaching Paris". EAX and SGF used TOR-E wording but LSX chose not too. In 2011 I remember the headline in one of the warnings having a headline of "destructive tornado moving through St Charles County". Definitely got the point across. The EF3 in 2013 had a tier 2 PDS warning for most of its life. I'm still not a TOR-E fan but I understand where it may be effective. Last night being a good example

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14 minutes ago, Crazieman said:

SPC calling moderate risk again, TX panhandle and far western OK.

Upgrade for hailers, kept the 10% hatched for tornadoes.

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12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I can't remember a time they've issued moderate three days in a row.

May 22nd 23rd 24th, 2011 had 2 MDTs and a high.

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