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Hoosier

April 27-28 Potentially Historic Super Late Season Winter Storm

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Will have a lot of RAOB sampling on the 12z Friday cycle.

The system moving through the region today/tomorrow should stop this from shifting too far north.

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1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Any thoughts on ratios? That stuff a couple weeks ago had to be like 6:1. I'm guessing something similar in this case but maybe a bit better as omega looks good in the SGZ on NAM BUFKIT MKE sounding.

Agree with your thoughts.  Generally about 6-8:1 but perhaps locally/transiently higher.  

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19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'm pulling for this one to shift south...I'm always in for historic/record events.

As of now, looks like agreement on 6"+ getting into the northern tier across N. IL.

Euro had a bump south today so it's possible. It will depend on that s/w crashing onshore in the PAC NW at the same time our storm is approaching. Maybe it will pump the ridge upstream enough for this to dig farther south?

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Hard to believe I may need a north shift on this one, given we're pretty much done with April :P  Normally I'd say too late for me to want it, but the prospects of having two snowy Aprils in a row is definitely interesting, possibly historic.  MKE only needs 4.3" out of this one to record back to back double digit marks for April.

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43 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

18Z Euro even farther south, suggesting parts of the Chicago metro are in play for 4-6".

What was the look for Northern IN? I was going to go to the White Sox game Saturday night but, uh, nah.

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Here are ALL the measurable snowfalls on or after April 27 in 140 years of record for Detroit. Its a SHORT list. And note that outside of a tenth of an inch in 1954 and 2005, if Detroit gets 0.2"+, itll he the most significant snow this late since 1923, or 96 years!

 

If you list chronologically by calendar day

Apr 29, 1909- 3.0"

May 1/2, 1909- 0.4"

May 3, 2005- 0.1"

May 4, 1907- 0.2"

May 4, 1954- 0.1"

May 9, 1923- 6.0"

May 10, 1902- 0.5"

May 13, 1912- 1.5"

May 21/22, 1883- 5.0"

 

But chronologically by year...

May 21/22, 1883- 5.0"

May 10, 1902- 0.5"

May 4, 1907- 0.2"

Apr 29, 1909- 3.0"

May 1/2, 1909- 0.4"

May 13, 1912- 1.5"

May 9, 1923- 6.0"

May 4, 1954- 0.1"

May 3, 2005- 0.1"

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At this point I am thinking about 6-10" in the heavy band.  

Weekend timing is better than weekday but the roads should pretty much become a disaster for anybody out in it.  Am concerned about the impact to power lines and the leafing out trees with those amounts plus gusty winds.

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I'll be actually leaving 70s and 80s down here and flying back to Detroit for a week on Saturday.

So given my luck, I think a few inches of snow is pretty much guaranteed, lol. :arrowhead:

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1"+ calendar day snows at Rockford, Milwaukee and Madison on/after April 27.  The Rockford record book in particular looks like it could get slapped silly.  

 

Rockford:

May 1, 1940:  1.5"

April 30, 1907:  1.5"

April 27, 1979:  1.0"

May 11, 1966:  1.0"

 

Milwaukee:

April 30, 1907:  5.0"

May 10, 1990:  3.2"

May 3, 1935:  3.2"

April 30, 1994:  2.8"

May 10, 1902:  2.0"

April 30, 1888:  2.0"

May 1, 1909:  1.9"

May 9, 1923:  1.2"

April 28, 1909:  1.0"

April 29, 1907:  1.0"

 

Madison:

April 30, 1994:  7.8"

May 3, 1935:  4.8"

May 10, 1990:  3.0"

May 2, 1945:  1.9"

May 2, 2004:  1.2"

April 29, 1996:  1.0"

April 27, 1988:  1.0"

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

At this point I am thinking about 6-10" in the heavy band.  

Weekend timing is better than weekday but the roads should pretty much become a disaster for anybody out in it.  Am concerned about the impact to power lines and the leafing out trees with those amounts plus gusty winds.

Leaf out, at least in my area, is juuuust starting. Really seeing the green hue begin to show up just in the last couple days. I would say that it should have a marginal impact on tree damage. 

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16 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Also worth noting, the HRRR did real well with the most recent spring snowstorm. Will be interesting to see where it has everything once this storm gets into its wheelhouse. 

The HRRR and RAP both buried us with 6"+ on many runs with that event, and we ended up with a trace.  The impacts from the main band were forecast pretty well though.  

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

The HRRR and RAP both buried us with 6"+ on many runs with that event, and we ended up with a trace.  The impacts from the main band were forecast pretty well though.  

Yeah I think that’s probably more to my point. Impacts, rates, total accumulation was spot on. Placement of the heaviest band was pretty solid too, but it didn’t handle the north west edge well in IL, or the northern extent in Wisconsin. 

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I'm glad the heavy snow band is going to miss north.  A lot of perennials in the garden have some good size already and I don't want them smashed.  I wouldn't mind some flakes, though.

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The 03z RAP is fairly cold aloft... actually would even be a threat to mix in snow around here if it weren't for the warmth in the lowest couple thousand feet.  

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm glad the heavy snow band is going to miss north.  A lot of perennials in the garden have some good size already and I don't want them smashed.  I wouldn't mind some flakes, though.

I wouldn't mind seeing a good snow here given the circumstances.  The way it stands now we would see either accumulating snow, or miserable cold 38 degree rain followed by a brief period of wet flakes.  Given the choice I'll take the accumulating snow lol.  At this point though it looks like this will be 98% a 38 degree rain event, so I'll likely shoot north towards Dubuque and cross into the winter wonderland for one last wintry hurrah.

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Guess on if/when an LOT watch or advisory gets posted?

I see a higher likelihood of anything if impacts are going to be greater beyond just the northern tier of counties.

But there is always the SWS or HWO.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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I missed out on the mid-April thundersnow.  I'm surprised that late April is bringing a 6"+ contender but even more surprised that it will be whiffing to me to the south.  Congratulations to Madison + 1 county N/S, looks like that's where the death band will be setting up W/E in the state.  I'm only looking at 1"-2" from THIS storm but at least now GRB is talking accumulating snow from an inverted trough that swings through Sunday night.  If that squeezes out another 1"-2" I'm pretty sure the back-to-back snows would be historic for the time of year, if less dramatic.

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19 minutes ago, ikcarsky said:

I missed out on the mid-April thundersnow.  I'm surprised that late April is bringing a 6"+ contender but even more surprised that it will be whiffing to me to the south.  Congratulations to Madison + 1 county N/S, looks like that's where the death band will be setting up W/E in the state.  I'm only looking at 1"-2" from THIS storm but at least now GRB is talking accumulating snow from an inverted trough that swings through Sunday night.  If that squeezes out another 1"-2" I'm pretty sure the back-to-back snows would be historic for the time of year, if less dramatic.

Oh yeah I'm just TOTALLY loving the death band potential. /s

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