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ikcarsky

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About ikcarsky

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSTE
  • Location:
    Stevens Point, WI

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  1. ikcarsky

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Interesting, thought you guys hit it already. Just reached 77 a hundred miles to your north. Will probably wind up being the high. Still awaiting our first 90. If we don't overperform tomorrow...it's gonna be a while.
  2. ikcarsky

    June 2019 General Discussion

    As recently as yesterday our forecasted high was 89. Actual high: 70. I was telling people yesterday I doubted we'd even see 80s thanks to MCS activity but even this surprised me. The cloud debris was thick all day and we had pretty stiff westerly breezes. Looking forward to more.
  3. ikcarsky

    June 2019 General Discussion

    I'll join the 90 fray. We haven't hit it yet in central WI. I though we would get close on June 27, but an MCS rolled through in the afternoon to stop that from happening. Thought we might have a shot at 90 again today but temps flatlined in the mid-80s after 1 PM. I mean they just hit an absolute ceiling, despite gradually warming 850 temps, and now at 5 PM they are starting to sag back down. The soil is very wet due to the two MCS's that rolled through recently, this might have something to do with it. Tomorrow will have much warmer 850 temps but a morning MCS should provide ample cloud cover around mid-day. After that, 500 heights should remain low enough that the first 90 will continue to elude throughout the first half of July.
  4. ikcarsky

    May 2019 Discussion

    I'm about 250 miles north of you and I observed the same phenomenon (well I wish, I actually soundly slept through the whole thing). KSTE officially gusted to 46 mph, nearby COOP gusted to 53 mph around 2:40 AM. Based upon my AFD this morning this was very widespread and amazingly did not involve convective processes.
  5. ikcarsky

    May 8-9 Winter Storm

    The models generally had my area as the most likely to receive snow zone as recently as two days ago. I thought that was a lock since I'm out of state for this storm. But in fact we have a Superior special here after all. DLH painting some 6"+ amounts and saying in their enjoyable AFD that there's not as much working against this as one as one would think this time of year. Hope some weenie up there is enjoying it.
  6. ikcarsky

    April 2019 Discussion

    Robbed of the 1"-2" I was expecting from the current storm. I saw neither flake nor drop. Now looking like the 1-2" of snow I was hoping for Sunday night won't happen either. Looking forward there's unseasonably cold air in lower Canada for a couple of weeks yet and split flow delivering plenty of disturbances which are lined up all the way back to Asia right now. Plenty of opportunities for cold air intrusions but the climo clock is ticking. Timing will be everything but I won't write off an overnight 1/2" event even in early May. I can see it happening. Nice pool of temps around 30 just north and west. If clouds clear out before dawn should be no problem. I can say upstream here high clouds are drying right up. My forecast low is 21. Currently 36 with a dew point of 19 and I'll have fun watching it tank.
  7. In spite of my expectations this has continued to trend south. Now looking like a complete whiff for me. That cold high to the north is beefy and means business. Wish I could enjoy this without the overcast skies and mid-30s.
  8. Do weenie cards expire on March 21? Mine certainly doesn't. I'll take AFD's like this one out of MPX any time of the year. However, one thing this system has in abundance is strong forcing. There are contributions from isentropic ascent, upper level divergence, differential PVA, and mid-level frontogenesis. All of these show strong signals, and are very well correlated both spatially and temporally. Net adiabatic isentropic Omega lines up quite well with model omega, and with mixing ratios of 3-4+ g/kg there is more sufficient moisture for at least 8" of accumulation. Add to this the fact that strong 700 mb frontogenesis is progged, and couples well with upper level divergence (initially in the left exit region of the upper jet streak to our north, but eventually during 12-18Z it is a coupled feature as the jet streak to our southwest gets into the picture). Negative EPV is indicated above the sloped region of frontogenesis, owing to convective instabilty per negative theta-e lapse rates in the layer. This simply adds to the potential for intense banded precipitation for a 6 hour or so window of time. I'd say send this thing my way but if the trend on the high-res models continues this is going to become a Chicago special. I don't quite buy that since the upper level signature of the s/w over the PacNW looks pretty potent in water vapor imagery which to me argues against further southward shifts.
  9. I missed out on the mid-April thundersnow. I'm surprised that late April is bringing a 6"+ contender but even more surprised that it will be whiffing to me to the south. Congratulations to Madison + 1 county N/S, looks like that's where the death band will be setting up W/E in the state. I'm only looking at 1"-2" from THIS storm but at least now GRB is talking accumulating snow from an inverted trough that swings through Sunday night. If that squeezes out another 1"-2" I'm pretty sure the back-to-back snows would be historic for the time of year, if less dramatic.
  10. ikcarsky

    April 2019 Discussion

    Almost three weeks after the Great Plains Pulverizer and our dry spell persists. Snow now only exists in piles and a few of the larger drift zones, particularly those that are a bit sheltered. Different story once you get north of Wausau though. The transition to deep snow pack happens in all of about 20 miles. Near Rhinelander there's a consistent 12" depth, nearly 18" in some places. And it's an absolute glacier too. I hardly sunk 1/4" into the top when cross-country skiing up there yesterday. Kind of stunk actually. That said, with no 1"+ refresher snows in the forecast and with 70s trying to work their way into the long range I can't see that glacier holding on much longer. Meanwhile is that a snow squall I see approaching on high-res for tomorrow evening? I'll still take winter where I can get it.
  11. ikcarsky

    March 2019 Discussion

    When looking out at a deep 2' snow pack the morning of March 12 I thought I wouldn't see lawn grass until April. Nope. As of now areas of bare ground tend to exceed covered areas. Fields are almost completely free of snow aside from drift zones. By the time the potential storm rolls around later this week it'll just be snowbanks. It's not like it's been excessively warm here, but we've lacked any refreshing 1"+ snows to help keep the snow pack fresh and a good reflector/radiator for the numerous clear days we've had since the bomb cyclone. Since that storm we've had only a few hundredths inch of QPF. Blah.
  12. ikcarsky

    Spring/Summer 2019 Flooding Thread

    It's not literally a sand bar. Poor analogy. The point I was making is that the soil is very sandy and permeable in this region, and ordinarily puddles have very poor staying power...when the ground isn't frozen solid that is.
  13. ikcarsky

    Spring/Summer 2019 Flooding Thread

    I've heard it said that my area is immune to flooding because it's basically built on a giant sand bar. Well, turns out that logic doesn't hold up when the ground is frozen. This torch (three days, almost 60° today, with sun) melted about two-thirds of the snow pack. Throw on the 1.5" of rain and there's a lot of urban flooding. Some county roads are underwater too. I've also heard word of some basements taking on water. Sump pumps have been selling well locally. So with all that I am glad the torch is over. It should be downhill (no pun intended) from here. And things could have been worse The snow pack is I'd say about 6" average depth and has plenty of water yet to give.
  14. ikcarsky

    Winter 2018-19 Grade Thread

    For fun, of course. And since it is just for fun, in the end people will use whatever scale they wish -- including how they feel. All I can do is explain why I prefer a more objective standard. Atlanta will never ever get a grade-A winter. International Falls will probably never ever have a grade-D winter. In imitation of life...some students just won't ever get A's no matter how hard they try. Come up my way, this three-day torch was no match for our epic snow pack. It may be slushy on the bottom but it still white on top and no grass is poking through yet.
  15. ikcarsky

    Winter 2018-19 Grade Thread

    I think I see what you mean by "both ways" but this is awkward to me since the entire point of being objective here would be to provide a single standard by which a winter should be judged -- no matter where you are in the world. Which standard to choose? Pure numbers (80"+ seasonal snowfall) or relative to climo (10"+ above average)? I would rather judge on criteria closer to the former than that latter. There is some enjoyment from breaking records and knowing a given season is unusual and as you saw I do give points for that. I just don't think it should be the basis of the scoring rubric. To go off of your example, someone from the South coming living in Chicago for a year would be impressed by even a climatologically average Chicago winter, but even they would have to some sense of what a real "grade A" winter would be like, and that it wasn't what they experienced in Chicago. Our culture gives the impression (reinforced around Christmastime) that winter means kids are bundled up from head to toe, the hearth is ablaze, and the snow is deep enough that you could use sleighs to get around. You see it on decorations, media, your coffee mugs, etc. And there are places in this country where that can happen on a consistent annual basis. Shouldn't these places be the "grade A students" of winter?
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