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ikcarsky

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About ikcarsky

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSTE
  • Location:
    Stevens Point, WI

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  1. ikcarsky

    July 20-21 Severe Wx

    Yesterday morning's derecho meant business. Gusts of up to 90 mph laid waste to a corridor between Wisconsin Rapids and Appleton, leaving tens of thousands without power. Damage is so extensive that power is expected to be out for several more days and the mayor of Wisconsin Rapids declared the city a disaster area. Surprised that there's no mainstream coverage of this event whatsoever. These aren't little unincorporated villages we're talking about but modestly sized population centers. (Maybe it's because no one was live streaming the event on social media?) https://www.wsaw.com/content/news/Wisconsin-Rapids-Mayor-Shelter--512989341.html
  2. ikcarsky

    July 20-21 Severe Wx

    Starting to hear from people back home in central WI that the damage from the first round this morning was pretty nuts. Winds of an intensity seen only once in a generation.
  3. ikcarsky

    7-19 Severe outbreak MN into upper MI

    Represent...or I would, if I weren't out of state. Watching this keenly, wonder what I'll come back to next week.
  4. ikcarsky

    Mid-July Heat Wave

    STE got 89'ed. Called it. (Though a nearby COOP got to 91.) Now to lament the fact that I'm out-of-state for a rare high-end severe weather outbreak for my area.
  5. ikcarsky

    Mid-July Heat Wave

    Those storms went "poof" when the LLJ did, but they did their job and helped reinforce the cold pool along the I-90 corridor. The stage is now set. Visible shows the cirrus canopy will soon be a non-factor as it thins and blows off to the east. It's clearing out very well in C and W WI and I see a couple of outflow boundaries: one along the I-90 corridor, the other draped just west of the Mississippi River through NE IA and into S MN. Sure the EML is strong there and advecting in but there's moisture everywhere else which might be why most of MN is cloudy (are those ACCUS clouds entering WI around MSP right now?) Still some cons so I can still see a bust on the 90s. Next few hours are key. Do clouds persist or does subsidence rule the day? Most NWS offices are saying the latter.
  6. ikcarsky

    Mid-July Heat Wave

    I sense some bust potential for central WI's first 90 degree readings tomorrow. The scorching 700 mbar temps of 21 °C advect in for only a few hours. On the upshot this does happen during the heat of the day but all it would take is a well timed cloud deck counter this. This seemed to happen today in the ARX CWA where their AFD says they fell well short of their high temperature forecast. In the AM these clouds were predicted to mix out. My personal thinking is that the sun beating on the very wet ground drives so much moisture to rise that condensation into clouds overwhelms mixing into the EML, supporting the thicker than expected cloud cover (in addition to surface evaporation keeping surface temps down directly). But that's just speculation. In any event, we have a statewide cold pool from MCS activity (to be reinforced with another MCS tonight), 0.5" - 4" of rain everywhere over the last 72 h going S and W hundreds of miles, and temps today already falling short both here (high was 80, forecast 86) and upstream thanks to clouds. Wouldn't surprise me if we 89 this one.
  7. ikcarsky

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Interesting, thought you guys hit it already. Just reached 77 a hundred miles to your north. Will probably wind up being the high. Still awaiting our first 90. If we don't overperform tomorrow...it's gonna be a while.
  8. ikcarsky

    June 2019 General Discussion

    As recently as yesterday our forecasted high was 89. Actual high: 70. I was telling people yesterday I doubted we'd even see 80s thanks to MCS activity but even this surprised me. The cloud debris was thick all day and we had pretty stiff westerly breezes. Looking forward to more.
  9. ikcarsky

    June 2019 General Discussion

    I'll join the 90 fray. We haven't hit it yet in central WI. I though we would get close on June 27, but an MCS rolled through in the afternoon to stop that from happening. Thought we might have a shot at 90 again today but temps flatlined in the mid-80s after 1 PM. I mean they just hit an absolute ceiling, despite gradually warming 850 temps, and now at 5 PM they are starting to sag back down. The soil is very wet due to the two MCS's that rolled through recently, this might have something to do with it. Tomorrow will have much warmer 850 temps but a morning MCS should provide ample cloud cover around mid-day. After that, 500 heights should remain low enough that the first 90 will continue to elude throughout the first half of July.
  10. ikcarsky

    May 2019 Discussion

    I'm about 250 miles north of you and I observed the same phenomenon (well I wish, I actually soundly slept through the whole thing). KSTE officially gusted to 46 mph, nearby COOP gusted to 53 mph around 2:40 AM. Based upon my AFD this morning this was very widespread and amazingly did not involve convective processes.
  11. ikcarsky

    May 8-9 Winter Storm

    The models generally had my area as the most likely to receive snow zone as recently as two days ago. I thought that was a lock since I'm out of state for this storm. But in fact we have a Superior special here after all. DLH painting some 6"+ amounts and saying in their enjoyable AFD that there's not as much working against this as one as one would think this time of year. Hope some weenie up there is enjoying it.
  12. ikcarsky

    April 2019 Discussion

    Robbed of the 1"-2" I was expecting from the current storm. I saw neither flake nor drop. Now looking like the 1-2" of snow I was hoping for Sunday night won't happen either. Looking forward there's unseasonably cold air in lower Canada for a couple of weeks yet and split flow delivering plenty of disturbances which are lined up all the way back to Asia right now. Plenty of opportunities for cold air intrusions but the climo clock is ticking. Timing will be everything but I won't write off an overnight 1/2" event even in early May. I can see it happening. Nice pool of temps around 30 just north and west. If clouds clear out before dawn should be no problem. I can say upstream here high clouds are drying right up. My forecast low is 21. Currently 36 with a dew point of 19 and I'll have fun watching it tank.
  13. In spite of my expectations this has continued to trend south. Now looking like a complete whiff for me. That cold high to the north is beefy and means business. Wish I could enjoy this without the overcast skies and mid-30s.
  14. Do weenie cards expire on March 21? Mine certainly doesn't. I'll take AFD's like this one out of MPX any time of the year. However, one thing this system has in abundance is strong forcing. There are contributions from isentropic ascent, upper level divergence, differential PVA, and mid-level frontogenesis. All of these show strong signals, and are very well correlated both spatially and temporally. Net adiabatic isentropic Omega lines up quite well with model omega, and with mixing ratios of 3-4+ g/kg there is more sufficient moisture for at least 8" of accumulation. Add to this the fact that strong 700 mb frontogenesis is progged, and couples well with upper level divergence (initially in the left exit region of the upper jet streak to our north, but eventually during 12-18Z it is a coupled feature as the jet streak to our southwest gets into the picture). Negative EPV is indicated above the sloped region of frontogenesis, owing to convective instabilty per negative theta-e lapse rates in the layer. This simply adds to the potential for intense banded precipitation for a 6 hour or so window of time. I'd say send this thing my way but if the trend on the high-res models continues this is going to become a Chicago special. I don't quite buy that since the upper level signature of the s/w over the PacNW looks pretty potent in water vapor imagery which to me argues against further southward shifts.
  15. I missed out on the mid-April thundersnow. I'm surprised that late April is bringing a 6"+ contender but even more surprised that it will be whiffing to me to the south. Congratulations to Madison + 1 county N/S, looks like that's where the death band will be setting up W/E in the state. I'm only looking at 1"-2" from THIS storm but at least now GRB is talking accumulating snow from an inverted trough that swings through Sunday night. If that squeezes out another 1"-2" I'm pretty sure the back-to-back snows would be historic for the time of year, if less dramatic.
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