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snowlover2

2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

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4 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

12z Euro appears to have a strong looking MCS next Saturday evening/night developing across southern MI to E IA and dropping south across much of IL/IN/OH.

Yeah and the models had us under torrential rain and storms several days out to only be incorrect and well south this weekend, which I am fine with, though a decent thunderstorm would have been nice.  By Friday we’ll probably be under a trough and in the 60’s...

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7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Based on the damage pics I have seen and radar data, I am confident that the tornado around Ellettsville is EF2+.  

Prelim's from today's survey...

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
551 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019



...FIRST NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/15/2019 ...

A widespread tornado outbreak occurred the evening of June 15th
as a remnant MCV from earlier storms interacted with a warm front
in southern Indiana. This is the first PNS that covers the
surveys that were completed today, Sunday June 16th with additional
surveys to be completed tomorrow, Monday June 17th.

.Tornado #1 Freedom Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated peak wind:    110 mph
Path length /Statute/:  8.22 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   200 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             06/15/2019
Start time:             6:29 PM EDT
Start location:         Freedom/Owen Co/IN
Start Lat/Lon:          39.2038 N/-86.8726 W

End date:               06/15/2019
End time:               6:45 PM EDT
End location:           2 S Spencer/Owen Co/IN
End_lat/lon:            39.2738 N/ -86.7509 W

The tornado began just southwest of downtown Freedom before
moving into the town shearing numerous trees around town.
The tornado continued to the northeast leaving a very clear
path of sheared and uprooted trees in a path about 200
yards wide. The storm crossed the White River several times over
its lifetime and followed the river line to south of Spencer.
This is where a large building had its roof uplifted and walls
collapsed. The building was part of a business that was set to
open for the first time on Monday.  The damage ended shortly
after and the storm recycled into the next tornado.

.TORNADO #2 Ellettsville Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-2
Estimated peak wind:    130 mph
Path length /Statute/:  3.7 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   400 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             06/15/2019
Start time:             6:48 PM EDT
Start location:         2 W Ellettsville/Monroe Co/IN
Start Lat/Lon:          39.2739 N / -86.6075 W

End date:               06/15/2019
End time:               6:58 PM EDT
End location:           4 N Ellettsville/Monroe Co/IN
End_lat/lon:            39.2473 N / -86.6671 W

The tornado began in rural countryside northeast of
Ellettsville doing some tree damage before crossing
State Road 46 and doing significant tree damage along
Chafin Chapel Road.  A 400 yard wide path of trees was
completely shredded in spots.  Additional widespread tree
damage was found on Mount Tabor road and West Cowden Road.
Along West Cowden Road, several barns and outbuildings
were destroyed as well as a loosely anchored garage
completely swept off of its foundation. The tornado
continued into rural forest before dissipating.

.TORNADO #3 Greene County Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-2
Estimated peak wind:    130 mph
Path length /Statute/:  3.52 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   400 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             06/15/2019
Start time:             6:56 PM EDT
Start location:         4 NE Koleen/Greene Co/IN
Start Lat/Lon:          39.0456 N / -86.7965 W

End date:               06/15/2019
End time:               7:00 PM EDT
End location:           5 SSE Solsberry/Greene Co/IN
End_lat/lon:            39.0500 N / -86.7312 W

The tornado started west of North Crowe Road causing significant
damage to a newly built building on Crowe Road. The owner verified
it was well built and in very good shape.  The track continued
across State Road 54 and left a wide swath of tree damage with a
resident stating over 100 acres of trees were snapped.  The
storm cross State Road 43 and dissipated in a field to the east.

.TORNADO 4 BEECH GROVE TORNADO...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated peak wind:    100 mph
Path length /Statute/:  1.86 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   200 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             06/15/2019
Start time:             7:26 PM EDT
Start location:         2 SW Beech Grove/Marion Co/IN
tart Lat/Lon:           39.7071 N / -86.0971 W

End date:               06/15/2019
End time:               7:30 PM EDT
End location:           1 E Beech Grove/Marion Co/IN
End_lat/lon:            39.7160 N / -86.0641 W

The tornado began southwest of Beech Grove causing roof
damage before crossing Emerson Avenue and causing additional
roof damage to a school and house. The tornado continued for
several hundred feet before dissipating.

.TORNADO 5 East Marion Co...

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated peak wind:    70 mph
Path length /Statute/:  0.9 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             06/15/2019
Start time:             7:37 PM EDT
Start location:         4 E Beech Grove/Marion Co/IN
Start Lat/Lon:          39.7397 N / -86.0009 W

End date:               06/15/2019
End time:               7:38 PM EDT
End location:           5 E Beech Grove/Marion Co/IN
End_lat/lon:            39.7411 N / -85.9842 W

A brief touchdown near Brookville road and East
Raymond street caused significant damage to several
outbuildings and minor tree damage near Brookville Road.



EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale Classifies
Tornadoes into the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

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On 6/15/2019 at 6:57 PM, snowlover2 said:

Almost feels like 2 weeks ago all over again.

 

 

On 6/15/2019 at 6:59 PM, Indystorm said:

Oh, I wouldn't go that far as of yet....hopefully not.

 

On 6/15/2019 at 7:10 PM, snowlover2 said:

Should have clarified. Like 2 weeks ago there was early/midday rain and then late day storms which suddenly strong rotation and TDS. But yes hopefully won't be as bad.

It probably won't match the 40+ in the subforum from a couple of weeks ago, but we should end up in double digit tornadoes in Indiana. IND has teams looking at Rush, Bartholomew, Decatur, and Hancock Counties today.

EDIT: Survey team found EF-2 damage south of Rushville.

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26 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

 

It probably won't match the 40+ in the subforum from a couple of weeks ago, but we should end up in double digit tornadoes in Indiana. IND has teams looking at Rush, Bartholomew, Decatur, and Hancock Counties today.

8 tornadoes so far in IN (5 in IND, 3 in ILN).  Here's an interesting tidbit... that is more tornadoes on June 15, 2019 than occurred on all June 15ths from 1950-2018 combined.

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Slight risk has been added for Wednesday. Looks to me like mainly a Damaging wind threat. Haven't looked in detail at soundings this morning. The NAM last night (at that point the outlier) was showing a decent LL veering, but the rest of the column was pretty well unidirectional. Hence I think even with that solution, the main tor threat would be brief spinups along a line. Atleast in my immediate area, models are generally in good agreement, bringing a complex through mid/late evening.

KY_swody2 (5).png

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From a tornadoes standpoint, Thursday looks more interesting to me than Friday does(Friday seems like it's gonna be upscale city). Very subtle/low key setup in central/western IA but CAMs this evening seem to agree decently enough on 1-2 supercells in a solid environment. SPC doesn't even acknowledge this potential, which for some reason makes me more enthusiastic about it given Iowa's track record with SPC outlooks.

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Wed. system seems to be moving north a bit more than the SPC I-70 east corridor movement forecast in this morning's outlook.  Could have greater  svr implications for southern IL and IN later on today.

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On 6/16/2019 at 9:06 PM, Jackstraw said:

Prelim's from today's survey...

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
551 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019



...FIRST NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/15/2019 ...

A widespread tornado outbreak occurred the evening of June 15th
as a remnant MCV from earlier storms interacted with a warm front
in southern Indiana. This is the first PNS that covers the
surveys that were completed today, Sunday June 16th with additional
surveys to be completed tomorrow, Monday June 17th.

.Tornado #1 Freedom Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated peak wind:    110 mph
Path length /Statute/:  8.22 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   200 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             06/15/2019
Start time:             6:29 PM EDT
Start location:         Freedom/Owen Co/IN
Start Lat/Lon:          39.2038 N/-86.8726 W

End date:               06/15/2019
End time:               6:45 PM EDT
End location:           2 S Spencer/Owen Co/IN
End_lat/lon:            39.2738 N/ -86.7509 W

The tornado began just southwest of downtown Freedom before
moving into the town shearing numerous trees around town.
The tornado continued to the northeast leaving a very clear
path of sheared and uprooted trees in a path about 200
yards wide. The storm crossed the White River several times over
its lifetime and followed the river line to south of Spencer.
This is where a large building had its roof uplifted and walls
collapsed. The building was part of a business that was set to
open for the first time on Monday.  The damage ended shortly
after and the storm recycled into the next tornado.

.TORNADO #2 Ellettsville Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-2
Estimated peak wind:    130 mph
Path length /Statute/:  3.7 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   400 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             06/15/2019
Start time:             6:48 PM EDT
Start location:         2 W Ellettsville/Monroe Co/IN
Start Lat/Lon:          39.2739 N / -86.6075 W

End date:               06/15/2019
End time:               6:58 PM EDT
End location:           4 N Ellettsville/Monroe Co/IN
End_lat/lon:            39.2473 N / -86.6671 W

The tornado began in rural countryside northeast of
Ellettsville doing some tree damage before crossing
State Road 46 and doing significant tree damage along
Chafin Chapel Road.  A 400 yard wide path of trees was
completely shredded in spots.  Additional widespread tree
damage was found on Mount Tabor road and West Cowden Road.
Along West Cowden Road, several barns and outbuildings
were destroyed as well as a loosely anchored garage
completely swept off of its foundation. The tornado
continued into rural forest before dissipating.

.TORNADO #3 Greene County Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-2
Estimated peak wind:    130 mph
Path length /Statute/:  3.52 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   400 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             06/15/2019
Start time:             6:56 PM EDT
Start location:         4 NE Koleen/Greene Co/IN
Start Lat/Lon:          39.0456 N / -86.7965 W

End date:               06/15/2019
End time:               7:00 PM EDT
End location:           5 SSE Solsberry/Greene Co/IN
End_lat/lon:            39.0500 N / -86.7312 W

The tornado started west of North Crowe Road causing significant
damage to a newly built building on Crowe Road. The owner verified
it was well built and in very good shape.  The track continued
across State Road 54 and left a wide swath of tree damage with a
resident stating over 100 acres of trees were snapped.  The
storm cross State Road 43 and dissipated in a field to the east.

.TORNADO 4 BEECH GROVE TORNADO...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated peak wind:    100 mph
Path length /Statute/:  1.86 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   200 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             06/15/2019
Start time:             7:26 PM EDT
Start location:         2 SW Beech Grove/Marion Co/IN
tart Lat/Lon:           39.7071 N / -86.0971 W

End date:               06/15/2019
End time:               7:30 PM EDT
End location:           1 E Beech Grove/Marion Co/IN
End_lat/lon:            39.7160 N / -86.0641 W

The tornado began southwest of Beech Grove causing roof
damage before crossing Emerson Avenue and causing additional
roof damage to a school and house. The tornado continued for
several hundred feet before dissipating.

.TORNADO 5 East Marion Co...

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated peak wind:    70 mph
Path length /Statute/:  0.9 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             06/15/2019
Start time:             7:37 PM EDT
Start location:         4 E Beech Grove/Marion Co/IN
Start Lat/Lon:          39.7397 N / -86.0009 W

End date:               06/15/2019
End time:               7:38 PM EDT
End location:           5 E Beech Grove/Marion Co/IN
End_lat/lon:            39.7411 N / -85.9842 W

A brief touchdown near Brookville road and East
Raymond street caused significant damage to several
outbuildings and minor tree damage near Brookville Road.



EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale Classifies
Tornadoes into the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

I'm sorry but the description of the Beech Grove tornado damage is bullsh*t.  I'm not arguing that it was only an EF1.  Heck, I called that before the first-responders ever made it to the damage.  However, "roof damage to a school and house" is ridiculous.  Multiple homes have damage, businesses west of the school lost trees and signage, the school was hit hard, the apartment complex that shares the school campus got hit and the photo that's being shared all over social media of Alro Steel is of just one of the larger businesses that received damage.  I'm looking at this mess daily so I admit, I'm a little sensitive, and I realize that the reports need to be short and factual but it reads as if they never even visited the affected area.  

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I think it's an office by office thing or even just comes down to who did the survey/typed up the summary.  I have seen verbose descriptions for EF0/EF1 tornadoes but sometimes not.  I think it's more important that they were accurate (or at least as accurate as possible) with the path length, intensity, etc.  

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 400
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   210 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northeast Arkansas
     Southern Illinois
     Southwest Indiana
     Western Kentucky
     Southeast Missouri
     Northwest Tennessee

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM
     until 900 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms including multicells/linear
   segments and perhaps a couple of supercells (as shear continues to
   increase through late afternoon/early evening) will pose a severe
   risk across the region.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
   statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south of
   Poplar Bluff MO to 20 miles south southeast of Owensboro KY. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
 

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Lots of multi cell clusters in southern and central IL and IN and western KY at present.  Only a few are severe, particularly in the watch area.  Heavy rain and an occasional strong gust seem to be the greatest threats.  Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex will be where the action is today when the cap breaks.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
647 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHERN MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 646 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MOWEAQUA, OR 13  
  MILES NORTHEAST OF TAYLORVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND VEHICLES.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  MOWEAQUA AROUND 655 PM CDT.  

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23 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
647 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHERN MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 646 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MOWEAQUA, OR 13  
  MILES NORTHEAST OF TAYLORVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND VEHICLES.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  MOWEAQUA AROUND 655 PM CDT.  

Looks like a quick spin up

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Whether or not it happens on the 06z outlook, I think there's a fairly decent chance that tomorrow ends up being an ENH risk around IA/MO/IL.

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There is a lot of model agreement on a fast-moving squall line continuing overnight, moving into northern Missouri and western Illinois in the mid-day hours, 16z to 18z. Models have varying solutions after 20z but the squall line may make it into Indiana. I am wondering if things will work out to have a lot of wind reports in the hours before noon CDT.

This is the HRRR model for 14z. Surely this would be quite unusual to have have so many 70dBz storm cores at 14z. 

7dICIWf.jpg

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SPC is continuing with the 15% wind and 15% hail over a broad region of the Midwest, as well as some 2% tornado areas.  It is almost identical to the previous 17z outlook (Day 2).

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3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

SPC is continuing with the 15% wind and 15% hail over a broad region of the Midwest, as well as some 2% tornado areas.  It is almost identical to the previous 17z outlook (Day 2).

Brought to you by Broyles.  Needless to say, let's see what subsequent outlooks show by other forecasters.    

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45 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Brought to you by Broyles.  Needless to say, let's see what subsequent outlooks show by other forecasters.    

With an ongoing MCS and maintenance of it being sustained, I just don't get it. I am truly baffled by that outlook.

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22 minutes ago, Stebo said:

With an ongoing MCS and maintenance of it being sustained, I just don't get it. I am truly baffled by that outlook.

I definitely wouldn't feel super comfortable about that sharp eastern edge to the slight in IL. 

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A large enhanced did end up getting issued across northern Missouri and southern/western Illinois. These severe wind-producing MCSes are my favorite storms; unfortunately for me this one will turn southeast along the instability gradient long before it gets here. This particular system is actually fairly interesting on radar, with one severe line directly behind the other. The lines are separated by less than 100 miles in spots.

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This has been an interesting twin mesoscale convective system to watch today.  I wonder if a new one will form tonight over the Dakotas or MN and dive se once again and if it will take a different or similar trajectory.  By the look of the day two convective outlook from SPC I would imagine it would cover pretty much the same territory.

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