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HoarfrostHubb

Spring 2019 New England Banter and Disco

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MOS is putting up 63 to 68 numbers for Saturday pan-wide across SNE sites ...

The idea to keep in mind with MOS for those that look(ed) at it, those values are more weighted by climate the further out in time.  Therefore, the 66 type numbers put up for Saturday ... day five, are some 14 over climatology average of just 52.  That may not just be a mild day at this time of year, because the signal is strong enough to rise above said weighting...  

That said ... as is also concomitant with this time of year... a warm frontal placement can bust a high temperature by some 30 F or more.... I've seen it be 44 at BVY while it's 77 at HFD ... because a warm front slammed to a halt shy of Worcester.   One could probably see their dash therm jump from 49 to 68 all at once driving west on the Pike out there over the span of just a few miles. 

Right now the synopsis has a broad warm front extending from somewhere near ORD to PWM ... That's precarious at this time of year. But, the models have unilaterally been consistent with that fragile set up succeeding so we'll see...  Thickness up to 554 dm with 850 mb T's 7 to 10C while lazy flags wobble from SW zephyrs propably gets to to 74 actually at Springfield if those parameters succeed into the region and there is sufficient sun. 

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The delivery isn’t the best on saturday to maximize temps.  High pressure to the east and south flow. Looks like a Merrimack valley and SNH day. Still will be warm most other spots, but those areas I mentioned may be the warmest. 

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17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

October

There is going to be a strong Arctic front, some may think because its in the 60s and 70s it wont snow again until then but buyer beware. I wouldn't discount a white outcome in parts of NE early next week.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

There is going to be a strong Arctic front, some may think because its in the 60s and 70s it wont snow again until then but buyer beware. I wouldn't discount a white outcome in parts of NE early next week.

I fully expect more measurable.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

There is going to be a strong Arctic front, some may think because its in the 60s and 70s it wont snow again until then but buyer beware. I wouldn't discount a white outcome in parts of NE early next week.

I agree

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is going to be a strong Arctic front, some may think because its in the 60s and 70s it wont snow again until then but buyer beware. I wouldn't discount a white outcome in parts of NE early next week.

We've had snow in May up here so nothing is off the table.

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38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This winter gradient was immense,  reminds me of 07/08 maybe 75 miles displaced north. This year and 07 08

20190326_085958.png

20190326_092420.jpg

I followed the Northern areas all winter for snowfall, Look up those numbers up to QUE this year, Every storm they were looking at receiving 1-2' while northern Maine was looking at 12"

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The delivery isn’t the best on saturday to maximize temps.  High pressure to the east and south flow. Looks like a Merrimack valley and SNH day. Still will be warm most other spots, but those areas I mentioned may be the warmest. 

Also, if using the Euro ... the day before might end up the warmest day, too..  Keeping ur concepts in mind, that day the flow appears more veered slightly ...should the warm boundary/related clouds not interfere ... I've seen that in the past where the day before ends up the warmest.  ...sort of changing the subject from Saturday, to the warm generality. 

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If the front can time slower and we can materialize some instability Sunday we may have a chance for some grauple if we can get enough elevated instability. Lapse rates may be just steep enough. 

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That snowfall map was interesting.  In actuality, if we had super-resolution the snowfall in the hills and mountains of C/NNE snofall would be all over the place.  Take my 10 mile neck of the woods area. (yellow line)  I have 2 friends that are very good observers.  Bristol NH at 500 feet is around 80"  I'm at 1100 feet at 98".  My friend at the top of the hill around 1600 feet is at 120".  The big elevated November storm was part of that disparity however I'm sure all elevated areas and upslope and downslope have even more differences than this over a shorter area.

snow.jpg

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Also, if using the Euro ... the day before might end up the warmest day, too..  Keeping ur concepts in mind, that day the flow appears more veered slightly ...should the warm boundary/related clouds not interfere ... I've seen that in the past where the day before ends up the warmest.  ...sort of changing the subject from Saturday, to the warm generality. 

Yeah agree. Especially if clouds are not an issue.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I followed the Northern areas all winter for snowfall, Look up those numbers up to QUE this year, Every storm they were looking at receiving 1-2' while northern Maine was looking at 12"

Data for November 1, 2018 through March 26, 2019
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall
VT MORGAN 6.7 SE CoCoRaHS 215.0
VT AVERILL COOP 212.0
VT SHEFFIELD 4.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 201.9
NH MOUNT WASHINGTON WBAN 201.2
VT GREENSBORO 3.9 NNE CoCoRaHS 200.3
QC MONT STE-ANNE GHCN 191.8
VT JEFFERSONVILLE COOP 188.1
NH PITTSBURG 6.1 NE CoCoRaHS 187.3
NH RANDOLPH 1.4 NE CoCoRaHS 184.3
VT WATERBURY 3.0 NW CoCoRaHS 184.0
VT CABOT 3.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 178.6
NH HERMIT LAKE SNOWPLOT COOP 175.0
VT WESTFIELD 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 172.0
VT WOODBURY 3.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 163.6
VT GREENSBORO 2.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 163.6
ME VAN BUREN 2 COOP 160.1
NH FIRST CONNECTICUT LAKE COOP 160.0
VT SUTTON COOP 155.6
VT WHEELOCK 1.6 S CoCoRaHS 154.4
VT UNDERHILL 4.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 152.5

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Part of that also is that we still have a velocity surplus issue in the atmosphere ... ( 'swear, some upstart grad student needs to flash an insight and release a rock-star catapulting paper the demos how GW is causing this to happen...) and fronts always seem to end up ahead of mid range schedule because of the stretching that is concomitant with fast flow - whether related to the parenthetical sarcasm or not, that's been something I've noticed... 

Anyway, could see Saturday end up more polluted with 68/57 and warm mist and sun splash intervals ( faux subtropical) before strong polar front clears house.  Friday may be +3 C at 850 and super adiabatically annihilating the BL thickness to over achieve if that light wind high sun angle and lower cloud due to still lower RH all plays out.  

As far as the season... no, ... not by tenor to date, or climatology in the first place, combined.  Those two factors/2 = whatever you want ... plan on being ass rammed, cuz that's been the most correlated result since the Novie snow/cold deliberately set the region up for that assault ... Seriously, you could couch the whole question/debate of 'can it snow again' under the heading of 'not impossible until May 22nd,' which I've seen noodles in Waltham on that day back in 2003... I've seen snow showers to a slushy inch on Boston Commons on May 20th in 2002...  Of course there's, 1977,... 1987... blah blah blah.  Some years ..yeah, you just sort of sense in the gestalt of the times it won't allow it and you're season is wrapped up with no hope or chances by the end of February - 2009 leaps to mind with nearly full green-up by April 10 that year (something I'd never seen before or since...).  This year will detest warm enthusiasts while simultaneously leaving a taste of shit in the mouth of snow lovers - 

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48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:
Data for November 1, 2018 through March 26, 2019
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall
VT MORGAN 6.7 SE CoCoRaHS 215.0
VT AVERILL COOP 212.0
VT SHEFFIELD 4.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 201.9
NH MOUNT WASHINGTON WBAN 201.2
VT GREENSBORO 3.9 NNE CoCoRaHS 200.3
QC MONT STE-ANNE GHCN 191.8
VT JEFFERSONVILLE COOP 188.1
NH PITTSBURG 6.1 NE CoCoRaHS 187.3
NH RANDOLPH 1.4 NE CoCoRaHS 184.3
VT WATERBURY 3.0 NW CoCoRaHS 184.0
VT CABOT 3.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 178.6
NH HERMIT LAKE SNOWPLOT COOP 175.0
VT WESTFIELD 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 172.0
VT WOODBURY 3.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 163.6
VT GREENSBORO 2.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 163.6
ME VAN BUREN 2 COOP 160.1
NH FIRST CONNECTICUT LAKE COOP 160.0
VT SUTTON COOP 155.6
VT WHEELOCK 1.6 S CoCoRaHS 154.4
VT UNDERHILL 4.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 152.5

Randolph NH is a great snow spot , especially the elevated areas above 1500’

Going N on 93 in NH deep deep snow from a few miles south of cannon right up thru Bethleham into twin mountain then down 302 into attitash even at 800-900’. Then it becomes less quickly into Glen and Intervale (as you head toward N Conway) the Kanc was crushed above say 11-1200’ as well

the amount of Snow on some roofs just a few miles west of Attitash was many feet Was surprised 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Struggling up to 33F. May have my last teens tonight.

Could be a couple pretty cold nights next week. 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Struggling up to 33F. May have my last teens tonight.

Solid air mass performance considering the sky could not be any more clear if it were on the moon

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Good day for faux warm appeal... 

Walk outta your house on the south side of the edifice ... where the wind is all but completely sheltered and you'd swear it's 72 ..

44

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Good day for faux warm appeal... 

Walk outta your house on the south side of the edifice ... where the wind is all but completely sheltered and you'd swear it's 72 ..

44

What also sucks too is the inside of the car is nice and toasty, but cruising down the highway you can the colder air blowing in through the vents at your feet. And if you put the heat on the feet setting you end up roasting. With it off 90% of your body is warm and your feets are frozen :angry: 

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

This winter gradient was immense,  reminds me of 07/08 maybe 75 miles displaced north. This year and 07 08

20190326_085958.png

20190326_092420.jpg

where'd you get the 2nd map from?

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7 hours ago, amarshall said:

trace last night in Duxbury. Woke up to a light coating 

Congrats.

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7 hours ago, dendrite said:

December

lol. Maybe next December because it couldn't have been this December.  Me and Steve had a whopping half inch or so.

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What a stretch of days...despite the cold the full sunshine still feels good. 

Despite a high of 32F so far, I was still able to only wear a hoodie while walking the dog.  Crazy how warm the sun feels despite the temperatures.

The sun is trying to work on the snowpack, which is still sitting around 20".

QiXtYPj.jpg

TfuWph4.jpg

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