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Jackstraw

3/3-3/5 IL/IN/OH Snow Potential

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Since I fired Cyclone I'll give it a shot for the first time lol. We're inside 120 hours so if this takes a crap I'll resign. 

 Models have been consistent coming north of the OH river hinting at advisory to possible low end warning criteria snow for central southern IL/IN and central OH around 3/3-3/5 time frame.  Potential App runner with some decent cold air in place would be a classic setup for some synoptic snow for the I-70 crew.  GFS/FV3/GEM/Euro have all been coming north and a little more amped  over the last 36 hours or so.  Suppression and strength the only caveats I can see (like thats not enough lol.)  as opposed to a strong WAA that's put the screws to us lately. 

 If we're going to have this upcoming late season cold snap may as well paint the ground white one more time :tomato:

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5 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Since I fired Cyclone I'll give it a shot for the first time lol. We're inside 120 hours so if this takes a crap I'll resign. 

 Models have been consistent coming north of the OH river hinting at advisory to possible low end warning criteria snow for central southern IL/IN and central OH around 3/3-3/5 time frame.  Potential App runner with some decent cold air in place would be a classic setup for some synoptic snow for the I-70 crew.  GFS/FV3/GEM/Euro have all been coming north and a little more amped  over the last 36 hours or so.  Suppression and strength the only caveats I can see (like thats not enough lol.)  as opposed to a strong WAA that's put the screws to us lately. 

 If we're going to have this upcoming late season cold snap may as well paint the ground white one more time :tomato:

Just an FYI, I have yet to receive my severance package.  :D

Much better look on the Euro the past few runs compared to the previous cycles.  Hopefully this one delivers for those snow starved areas from central IL to OH.  Could be in for some accums here as well if trends continue.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Just an FYI, I have yet to receive my severance package.  :D

Much better look on the Euro the past few runs compared to the previous cycles.  Hopefully this one delivers for those snow starved areas from central IL to OH.  Could be in for some accums here as well if trends continue.

Yeah, I've noticed the trend back west here too. I hope that whatever happens back here helps out the I-70 folks, they could use a storm. 

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00Z NAM sounding north central IN at 84 not too shabby.  Upper trough seems a little sharper/deeper. Any northward trends favor the I-70 crew as there will probably be some wipers going back south.  That's a pretty stout ridge to the NW but the orientation is more key in my feeble mind.  What the hell do I know lol :weenie:

nam_2019022800_084_40.84--85.76.png

 

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23 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

00Z NAM sounding north central IN at 84 not too shabby.  Upper trough seems a little sharper/deeper. Any northward trends favor the I-70 crew as there will probably be some wipers going back south.  That's a pretty stout ridge to the NW but the orientation is more key in my feeble mind.  What the hell do I know lol :weenie:

nam_2019022800_084_40.84--85.76.png

 

I know you are a very brave soul to go out on a long and thin limb to fire-up a thread..may The Force be with you Jackstraw

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My general thoughts here are that the low will be on the strong side of guidance initially over the Plains due to a very tight temp gradient, good dual jet support, and high PWATs in the warm sector all supporting robust cyclogenesis over the Plains, and the fact that this is often under-modeled until it's onoing (which is why last second NW trends are so common).  This is obviously a positive for those on the northern/western edge.  The shortwave however is flat and fairly quick moving, which will put some sort of lid on max amounts (though obviously, it won't take much to get a swath of warning criteria snows somewhere given the positives).  

Farther east the track will depend heavily on the location/intensity of the PV lobe, which will be determined by the interplay between the -EPO ridge, weak ridge over the western NAO domain, and the PV itself.  The very strong, east based nature of the EPO may normally support a suppressed solution, but the weak faux NAO ridge breaking down quickly can still allow for enough height rises over the eastern US to overcome that.  However, if the PV is farther south the rather flat shortwave won't be difficult to suppress.  The departing wave off the East Coast may also act to slightly dampen the height field over the east (though it ultimately won't be a large influence). 

Generally I feel there's more favoring the amped/north solution, though would caution that it wouldn't take much to suppress a rather flat wave from the much stronger PV.  This ultimately will end up closer to today's amped solutions than the very suppressed ones from a day or two ago, though exactly how close is the question.

525862306_GFS250.thumb.jpg.cbda5cb1cf549dce720179953369c8b7.jpg

216067782_GFS850a.thumb.jpg.abd6dc28a2ae066f062f5065f56726c4.jpg

 

GFS PWAT.jpg

EPS 96.jpg

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With that previous wave getting weaker and weaker run to run and the PV ending up further west, the pattern is presented just enough of a chance for a bit of ridging on the coast. With the baroclinic zone in place and the ample amount of moisture coming north this could be quite a hit, the only thing that would be against a massive hit is the system is moving quickly.

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Today's runs should tell us whether this is going to turn into a flat solution favoring S.Ohio/KY, or something more significant further north.  

My chips are on a flatter trend unfolding.  Lack of any wound up solutions on the overnight runs is a red flag....especially considering we are within 4 days.

 

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28 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Today's runs should tell us whether this is going to turn into a flat solution favoring S.Ohio/KY, or something more significant further north.  

My chips are on a flatter trend unfolding.  Lack of any wound up solutions on the overnight runs is a red flag....especially considering we are within 4 days.

 

Buckeye, time to switch on the I70 snow magnet.

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55 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Today's runs should tell us whether this is going to turn into a flat solution favoring S.Ohio/KY, or something more significant further north.  

My chips are on a flatter trend unfolding.  Lack of any wound up solutions on the overnight runs is a red flag....especially considering we are within 4 days.

 

....and of course just like that, the 6z euro looks pretty amped, taking the low to Charleston WV at 90hr bringing the mix line back closer to i-70.  

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Looks like my suppression call may have been the discovered nut for this blind squirrel.  That PV in Canada always looked way too bully to allow this one to come north.  I admit though, kind of weird that we have a positive AO, positive NAO, negative PNA, and yet this looks to go south.   

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A bit surprised to see suppression winning out, but it’s also what N NJ needed to not flip to rain so no complaints.  We’ll take a little needle threading with well timed suppression from the PV, as it’s gone the other way several times. 

As a side comment, the Euro has been as inconsistent as any other major global model this winter.  It’s gotten cleaned out by the GFS and Canadian with a few of these events on the east coast the last week or so. 

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The real problem with this isn't the PV, but the trough is to weak due to the s/w being sampled as a ho hum piece of energy. It needs to drive the trough into a sharper, better dynamic system.

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12 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The real problem with this isn't the PV, but the trough is to weak due to the s/w being sampled as a ho hum piece of energy. It needs to drive the trough into a sharper, better dynamic system.

Thank goodness we have your expertise in this forum! 

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2 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Thank goodness we have your expertise in this forum! 

It is what it is. A stronger sampled s/w, low pressure will be pumping into the OV rather than the Tennessee valley.

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