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Midweek event, Yah or Nah? February 27-28th Clipper


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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Actually I do. He’s a professional. If he didn’t , he would just leave RI and CT out

Harvey never said that there wasn't any room for slight adjustments.  He was calling things as they looked like last night.  Today there have been shifts north despite how small they were which in the end make the difference.

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RGEM is still pretty solid for N CT. Looks pretty heavy for E MA. We'll have to see what the qpf queen maps say when they come out. 

Most guidance actually has a pretty nice 3-5 hour period. It won't be shocking to see some 5 and 6 spots where the lucky banding winners are. There's gonna be some fake snow ratios in those bands. 

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A lot of the mesos actually sneak far NE CT in N windham county into the goods. That poster NECT from there could do well. 

Wiz, I think C-1 for like Hartford county is still prob too conservative so you prob don't need to kick yourself for upping your original map. Esp northern HFD county. Could easily be some 2-3" amounts.  

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

well on my original map I didn't have C-1'' for the entire state...I had 1-3'' for NW and NE CT.

 1945561157_022719CTsnowmap.png.33093f05d438e92966b2748062e7d431.png

My bad, that's certainly within the realm of outcomes.  I could see how the gradient would be more Northeast to Southwest vs highlighting the two corners of the state but I could see that how that extra orographic enhancement in the hills could produce a bit more precipitation as well.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of the mesos actually sneak far NE CT in N windham county into the goods. That poster NECT from there could do well. 

Wiz, I think C-1 for like Hartford county is still prob too conservative so you prob don't need to kick yourself for upping your original map. Esp northern HFD county. Could easily be some 2-3" amounts.  

It certainly is pretty close here...Going 1-3'' was probably the best bet from the start anyways. It does look like some of that better lift will work into northern HFD Cty. I actually kind of wonder if there will be a really fine meso-band that sort of positions somewhere and drops like 5-8'' of snow...perhaps into MA.  There seems to be some hints of this. Could have a nice axis where lift/snow growth are maximized and ratios approach 20:1 or slightly higher. 

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1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

My bad, that's certainly within the realm of outcomes.  I could see how the gradient would be more Northeast to Southwest vs highlighting the two corners of the state but I could see that how that extra orographic enhancement in the hills could produce a bit more precipitation as well.

All good. I did factor in orographic component here. I did put a quick a bit of stock into the 700 fronto configuration on the NAM as well. I thought given it's resolution it might handle the lift better given I don't think we're really looking at widespread large-scale lift here.

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The Reggie queen map would suggest some low end warning amounts in spots given the soundings. I wouldn't be confident enough to forecast that much for any specific point, but someone is gonna see it I think. Much better for most of the CT peeps than the NAM/RAP/RPM/HRRR 

 

IMG_2551.PNG

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I found this interesting on the 3K NAM, omehga in NMass Omega better in in NECT, more precip NMass better snowgrowth NECT so 2 to 4 for many IMHO

Lift more solidly in the DGZ for NE MA, but CT is a warmer (near -10C) column for lift. Not bad, but enough to be a difference with that model.

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