CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Ha. Two things. I could see the OES stuff more cape Ann and cstl pym county as the CF may be pinned there. Also. Might get some leftover flurries or very light snows into tomorrow night where that CF wavers. While it could be more. I’m just going to hope for 3-4 and be happy with that. Still some questions to where the banding sets up. Some guidance looks better just north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Written from basement on a hill in Weymouth 20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here is my Final Call...I've seen enough. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/wed-night-thursday-227-228-final-call.html I may just stick with this. Knowing this winter, ne MA will under achieve, anyway...focus on high end of range north, and low end south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 General thoughts: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: General thoughts: Looks good. I could stand to shift my map ne a bit from last night, but not even worth it. I'll probaby get 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I like the map wxsniss....basically like rays map (which I liked last night) except nudged north a little to account for the trend in guidance today. This should be a nice little event to track...snowgrowth should be excellent once the deeper lift gets in here later this evening so it will be a picturesque snow to watch fall...and it's an all snow event, lol...we've had so much crap mixed events this year that we're appreciating the all snow events we typically take for granted in a good winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I may just stick with this. Knowing this winter, ne MA will under achieve, anyway...focus om high end of range north, and low end south. That's a good map Ray I gave a little more weight to the 15:1 ratios pike to NMA, as well as some mesos showing decent fronto in that region. For that reason also extended 2-4 way into CNE. But I think that will really come down to Nowcast at this point. I also gave a little more weight to the SE coastal areas where 12k NAM / Euro / RGEM / HRRR all variably hint at better qpf. Area I'm more unsure of is northern half of CT, where some of the more northern mesos are kind of dry, but I think 2-4" is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I like the map wxsniss....basically like rays map (which I liked last night) except nudged north a little to account for the trend in guidance today. This should be a nice little event to track...snowgrowth should be excellent once the deeper lift gets in here later this evening so it will be a picturesque snow to watch fall...and it's an all snow event, lol...we've had so much crap mixed events this year that we're appreciating the all snow events we typically take for granted in a good winter. A winter like this sucks in real time, but it will pay dividends in future seasons...we need to be humbled and have expectations recalibrated every so often. I know that I needed both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I like the map wxsniss....basically like rays map (which I liked last night) except nudged north a little to account for the trend in guidance today. This should be a nice little event to track...snowgrowth should be excellent once the deeper lift gets in here later this evening so it will be a picturesque snow to watch fall...and it's an all snow event, lol...we've had so much crap mixed events this year that we're appreciating the all snow events we typically take for granted in a good winter. I could see 6" + from HYA eastward to Provincetown. NWS Taunton SNOW PROB map shows 19% for 8"+ for CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: That's a good map Ray I gave a little more weight to the 15:1 ratios pike to NMA, as well as some mesos showing decent fronto in that region. For that reason also extended 2-4 way into CNE. But I think that will really come down to Nowcast at this point. I also gave a little more weight to the SE coastal areas where 12k NAM / Euro / RGEM / HRRR all variably hint at better qpf. Area I'm more unsure of is northern half of CT, where some of the more northern mesos are kind of dry, but I think 2-4" is good. I made that map last night. I'm just going to roll with it, though...@#$& it- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 A few flurries here and 23.2F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: February 27-28th 2019 Clipper Snowfall Map That's actually not nearly as bad as I thought it was going to be. You've toned down nicely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, BombsAway1288 said: That's actually not nearly as bad as I thought it was going to be. You've toned down nicely 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I could see 6" + from HYA eastward to Provincetown. NWS Taunton SNOW PROB map shows 19% for 8"+ for CHH. Nevermind Lay off the 8" numbers James. Moving way too fast for that. 6" is most imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Yeah that’s pretty good Wxniss. I’d favor that area if cstl pym county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, BombsAway1288 said: Nevermind Lay off the 8" numbers James. Moving way too fast for that. 6" is most imo Yeah, we too, I think 6" is a good place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Nevermind Lay off the 8" numbers James. Moving way too fast for that. 6" is most imo Sorry I misread the maps, it was 19% chance for 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Another garbage system. At least it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A winter like this sucks in real time, but it will pay dividends in future seasons...we need to be humbled and have expectations recalibrated every so often. I know that I needed both. Yeah nice little exercises to learn and refine skills. At best, some mistakes can be generalizable lessons. At worst, I'm wasting time putzing around with new paint programs. Let's not lose sight of the fact we're attempting to nail down 1-2 inch resolution in this event, for which there is not perfect consensus among the better models at the moment. Not the 12-20" deep plays of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Another garbage system. At least it's all snow. Maybe down there in Hamden, CT. Not here. Going to be one of the best "storms" we've had on the Mass coastal plain this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Flurries continue here, but the ceiling must be high, just saw a plane overhead taking off from BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Hrrr still continues to be paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Maybe down there in Hamden, CT. Not here. Going to be one of the best "storms" we've had on the Mass coastal plain this season! Yes, I'm primarily referring to expected conditions in KHTH. (I realize that's Hawthorne NV, but this winter my hood might as well be.) Good luck up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The really hi res stuff has been a little drier than the other guidance...I'm talking HRRR/RAP/hi res RGEM/3km NAM/RPM solutions. Not a huge difference but like 0.2-0.3 qpf versus 0.25-0.40 type solutions in that 30 mile wide zone of best forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I may be off on the exact date, but does this have any similarities to 2/5/03? I’m not expecting 12+ in Canton of course though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Can I just send my snow to James so I don't have to pay the plow guy again? BTV map: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I may be off on the exact date, but does this have any similarities to 2/5/03? I’m not expecting 12+ in Canton of course though. No that was a little more vigorous in the mid levels. This won’t even be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yes, I'm primarily referring to expected conditions in KHTH. (I realize that's Hawthorne NV, but this winter my hood might as well be.) Good luck up there. Thanks. Sounds like we're going to need it if the HRRR keeps getting drier and drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Isn’t it never a good sign when you have the s/w tracking NW to SE to your north (this would apply for CT as that’s what’s happening). Also, looking at the ULJ configuration seems like we’re in RFQ so more in the way of ulvl convergence possibly? The NAM 700 VV’s really hit at some subsidence zones here. Although it’s interesting how they’re always oriented N to S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Gfs really like RI and S coast MA. Funny how guidance still is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Steady flurries mixed with graupel. Slight dusting and 23F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs really like RI and S coast MA. Funny how guidance still is all over the place. Ya, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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