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March Disco

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That depiction is good for all of us...we take.   Ofcourse not one this season has worked out like that so....????

Not a bad thing to keep trends in mind.  We've been getting the same results, over and over and over again ... ad nauseam.  It is of course harder to visualize any solution like that GGEM, let alone ... one that is not the same as that 'over and over and over again' 

Unfortunately, nature vs human perception of nature ...? They often part company.

The trick is, knowing when trend is likely to continue vs when it may be time to let it go...  I cannot say personally this is one of those latter times, but, this pattern that is taking hold ( bigger idealized EPO block and so forth...) is uncharted waters, so... Logic dictates the trend is worth evaluating.  

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not a bad thing to keep trends in mind.  We've been getting the same results, over and over and over again ... ad nauseam.  It is of course harder to visualize any solution like that GGEM, let alone ... one that is not the same as that 'over and over and over again' 

Unfortunately, nature vs human perception of nature ...? They often part company.

The trick is, knowing when trend is likely to continue vs when it may be time to let it go...  I cannot say personally this is one of those latter times, but, this pattern that is taking hold ( bigger idealized EPO block and so forth...) is uncharted waters, so... Logic dictates the trend is worth evaluating.  

Yea, if that block truly does roll over, you can toss seasonal trends. Not to say we have to see a blizzard, but dismissing that based upon past trends would be a fool's errand.

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weekend cutter gone.

if ur talking about the Euro ..it pretty much k'ode that on the 00z run

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Euro went from a cutter to a southern slider with snow in the south for this weekend.

PV is too strong

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro went from a cutter to a southern slider with snow in the south for this weekend.

PV is too strong

Classic for this winter, everywhere but here...

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Classic for this winter, everywhere but here...

We have the event Wednesday to provide some modest wintry appeal.  At least it' won't be washed away on Saturday.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nice coastal later in the run. 

I feel like there were a few misses in that run even leading up to that last one at 200 hrs....I wonder if one of those near misses ends up getting us in the mid to short range. There is just so many moving parts that the op and ensembles may not be fully biting on yet. At least it is active and the cold air seems to be here for a bit.

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Haven’t analyzed how Mar 1-2 would impact Mar 6-7 but on cursory glance I think I’d rather put all my chips on Mar 6-7... much more favorable H5

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8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

We have the event Wednesday to provide some modest wintry appeal.  At least it' won't be washed away on Saturday.

This is true, but I am pretty far SW, the Euro gives me 2-3 inches. A shift north would give me next to nothing...so we shall see

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Just incredible run to run swings on the major guidance, and I’ve been foolishly riding along on this...Going to axe my previous judgments of the early March threat being a “cutter” and move more into a wait a see mode. One thing is for certain—that PV lobe swinging through Alberta around day 4 will continue to be a major source of uncertainty (model error) going forward.

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Those last three days of this Euro oper. run look like the model's got some wave/spacing contention issues though - 

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49 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Sugarloaf just passed the 200" mark for the season. Still have two more months of snowfall to go. 

What a winter up there deep snow since Mid Nov

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The more I look at this/that ... the better the terminology comes to mind to describe ... 

The N/stream, comprised of the SPV fragment, can't get down in latitude fast enough to catch up with and capture the southern stream wave - the southern stream wave is caught up in a velocity rich flow.  I.e., too fast. 

Metaphor: can't get captured and fall into orbit because it is moving along at escape velocity ... heh, I like that.   

Fitting ... should our last hurrah fail because of this, as I've been bitching about too much gradient and wind speed all winter - 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The more I look at this/that ... the better the terminology comes to mind to describe ... 

The N/stream, comprised of the SPV fragment, can't get down in latitude fast enough to catch up with and capture the southern stream wave - the southern stream wave is caught up in a velocity rich flow.  I.e., too fast. 

Metaphor: can't get captured and fall into orbit because it is moving along at escape velocity ... heh, I like that.   

Fitting ... should our last hurrah fail because of this, as I've been bitching about too much gradient and wind speed all winter - 

 

 

For the weekend? Might be a good thing or it’s another low up our fannies. I think better potential is after this weekend. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Is it still a 2 part deal ? Fri and then lull then more Sat night?

One part. Friday is off to the south. That still may play a role so needs to be watched. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For the weekend? Might be a good thing or it’s another low up our fannies. I think better potential is after this weekend. 

nah... speaking to the Euro's D8/9/10 ... 

this weekend I suspect we're in the early stages of coalescing upon a narrow corridor coastal that may or may not clip the area ... obviously a fluid solution, hence the 'early' description.   I've let the ship sail on the Lakes early polarward motion because unless the SPV captures that... it's not going to move at it - heh

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