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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

My dad said there were entire cars buried in that storm in drifts down in Norfolk. Still the most talked about storm in Hampton roads.

Ji would be kicking pups again if that happened next week 

Purcelville and Ashburn recorded 8 and 9" so Leesburg must have done ok.  There seemed to be some kind of band on the NW fringe that got NW VA pretty good with lesser amounts north and south before the real jack area down by Richmond.  But I am sure he would still be debbing if he ONLY got 8" while VA Beach got 2 feet.  

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Do you guys believe the mid-week situation will impact the weekend potential? GFS has pretty consistently been showing a weak system pass by around Wednesday which allows warmer air to filter in and then the weekend storm cuts west. Euro seems to keep the entire week chilly which allows for a more wintry scenario later on. Am I misinterpreting what the models are showing? 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Anyone have Ukmet surface for hour 120 - 144. It looks better organized then Gfs for something possible mid week . Verbatim a 1004 low se of us ...probably light stuff if anything but I'm bored  and stranded on the side of the road in Hunt valley lol.

As in temps and precip?

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Anyone have Ukmet surface for hour 120 - 144. It looks better organized then Gfs for something possible mid week . Verbatim a 1004 low se of us ...probably light stuff if anything but I'm bored  and stranded on the side of the road in Hunt valley lol.

it mostly miller b's around us.  not much precip in our area.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I actually thought it was a good run for what I wanted to see... the general setup is still there but it suppresses both waves day 10 and 12.  That is kind of what I want the GFS to do at that range.  

It was fine lol. But Ji would be like- cutters and sliders and it didn't give us a flake!

 

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It was fine lol. But Ji would be like- cutters and sliders and it didn't give us a flake!

 

yea I get it lol...

Just to point out how good a run it actually was... the day 8 500 mb analogs for the 12z GFS just came out

#1 is centered 2 days before the March 1960 HECS

#3 is centered 3 days before the March 1962 HECS

#4 is centered 3 days before the March 1958 HECS

that's not a bad signal

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yea I get it lol...

Just to point out how good a run it actually was... the day 8 500 mb analogs for the 12z GFS just came out

#1 is centered 2 days before the March 1960 HECS

#3 is centered 3 days before the March 1962 HECS

#4 is centered 3 days before the March 1958 HECS

that's not a bad signal

Yeah but it didn't snow 2-3 days before those storms so why is that good?

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16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Yeah but it didn't snow 2-3 days before those storms so why is that good?

Are you being serious?  Sometimes I can't tell

The best threat period I am watching is around day 10-12.  That would be 2-3 days AFTER day 8 and the day 8 analogs say that look day 8 lead to several big snowstorms a few days later.  

It doesn't mean anything is a lock, not every look like that has to lead to something...  but the analogs indicate that if the GFS is right about that day 8 pattern there is a legit threat for a storm from that.  

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not gonna lie, that D8 storm does hurt a bit.  Showing up on the Euro, but rain from a coastal.   Good news is, we still have hope (and time) for some changes.  

A lot will change.  Some interesting model outcomes will be arriving as we head into the last week of Feb. 

 

5c70447512c0f.png

 

 

and this 

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

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42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Get that crap outta here. Snow in the south in March is an abomination. 

Yeah that map hurts...lol Analog begone! Good analogs only from now on :P (I mean sure 4 inches would put a lot of us at or above 20", but two misses to the south to bookend the beginning and end of the season would still be torturous, lol)

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Not gonna lie, that D8 storm does hurt a bit.  Showing up on the Euro, but rain from a coastal.   Good news is, we still have hope (and time) for some changes.  
Yep when people mentioned all the hits on the ensembles in that time period...nobody mentioned rain storms lol
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To balance things out some,  bluewave posted this a few hours ago, and it is a thought provoking observation.

Seems this has indeed been an issue all winter long. The absence of any +PNA .  The screaming and powerful Pac jet tears down any attempt at it. 

I almost wonder if maybe it takes away the favorable window for early March.  To flow really needs to slow. 

Thinking about what HM posted too,  I wonder if although the MJO is in phase 1 and then proceeds to phase 2 if we do not get a look that is typical with that type of composite. 

Some fear the +PNA I myslef not sure what to think this winter. 

 

Posted from bluewave starting here :

<<<<<<

 

Euro and GFS correcting stronger with the PAC Jet over the Western US last few days. That’s why both models lost the the snow they were showing near the beginning of March. We need that fire hose jet to relax if we want one last shot at snow. Notice how the fast flow weakened the PNA ridge  models were showing a few days ago.

New run

E977261B-085E-4A9E-8F3A-9199A1117C81.thumb.png.727af51f4f3a2953e1917fb5d93651ca.png

Old run

E22E7132-3D7F-4952-B7A6-D8C259A9C342.thumb.png.f54fe61d5e04b6c0a261413b7856035c.png

  •  

  >>>>>>

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