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Minnesota_storms

February 23-25th Winter Storm

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Never much fun being in the middle of a system like this, with snows well west, and appreciable convection well southeast.  Interesting system, but looks like a windy, cold rainer followed by dry slot for most of the DVN cwa.  Hope we can get a boomer with some elevated 'vection before dry slot hits.  

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7 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

GRR actually issued a winter storm watch for 65mph wind and rain haha. I do believe I am living in the twilight zone right now. 

Yeah. This seems odd.

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3 hours ago, weatherbo said:

woo hoo! Winter storm watch posted.

download.thumb.png.42909cc7e39a2d56e387fbd931add349.png

Given your location synoptic snow should be banned.lol

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3" of snow with 60mph winds is absolutely worthy of a wsw.   
7" of snow with 70mph during the '78 blizz was WAY more disruptive for us than the 22" storm we had in '08.
if you read the AFD they are not expecting 3" of snow rather backwash snowshowers.Nor did I ever see SW Michiana modeled for that. It was also issued 72 hrs in advance. Just seemed odd as pointed out by some SW Michigan posters. But thier the pros so they may see something I don't.

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Good chance to be mostly rain here too but I notice although the NAM just caved and headed north, the other models have inched south and we are now in the transition zone between rain and snow. So I have no real idea what will happen.

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Models today have trended weaker/slower/southeast. Doesn’t look to be the huge blizzard potential anymore and slightly lower totals. Still interested in what happens here

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Just an FYI, the CMC went south again (and weaker).  I'm pretty sure the 18z NAM will go south too.  As for tonight, the HRRR keeps showing the freezing line reaching Cedar Rapids and heading north at around midnight.  The really heavy rains that the HRRR keeps showing will be in the above freezing air.  Any icing we get will certainly melt.

One more thing, the personal weather stations (shown on Wunderground) in Cedar Rapids are all reporting temps in the lower 30s with some readings in the mid 30s.  I don't expect Cedar Rapids to go below 30F tonight.

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3 hours ago, Baum said:

if you read the AFD they are not expecting 3" of snow rather backwash snowshowers.Nor did I ever see SW Michiana modeled for that. It was also issued 72 hrs in advance. Just seemed odd as pointed out by some SW Michigan posters. But thier the pros so they may see something I don't.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

looks like up to 2".   I agree that the advance of 72 hrs seems excessive.   But I still believe that even a couple of inches of snow with 60 mph winds is more than an advisory nuisance.  May also have to do with snow on the ground and whether that may be prone to blowing around too.

..WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...High winds are forecasted to combine with occasional snow
  and falling temperatures to potentially lead to widespread
  impacts for the area. Westerly winds could gust over 60 mph.
  Blowing snow could cause significant reductions to visibility at
  times. Accumulations of up to 2 inches are possible with
  highest amounts across Central Lower Michigan.

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3 hours ago, buckeye said:

looks like up to 2".   I agree that the advance of 72 hrs seems excessive.   But I still believe that even a couple of inches of snow with 60 mph winds is more than an advisory nuisance.  May also have to do with snow on the ground and whether that may be prone to blowing around too.

..WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...High winds are forecasted to combine with occasional snow
  and falling temperatures to potentially lead to widespread
  impacts for the area. Westerly winds could gust over 60 mph.
  Blowing snow could cause significant reductions to visibility at
  times. Accumulations of up to 2 inches are possible with
  highest amounts across Central Lower Michigan.

 Any old snow that remains on the ground In those spots will be glacier. Though I do agree that those winds with any snow could be crazy

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2 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Nearly 300 inches of snow this year, close to 70 inches on the ground - and still haven't had a blizzard warning in the past 600+ inches of accumulated snow going back through the years.

 

Is this because I'm black?

How far is John Den from you?  I was thinking less than 10 miles, but I'm not positive.

His stats as of today are nowhere near 300", neither am I.  

Snow Data as of
9 am February 22, 2019

 

New snow in the past 24 hours: 0.5″
Snow on the Ground:  47″
Season Total to Date: 214.5″

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Just now, weatherbo said:

How far is John Den from you?  I was thinking less than 10 miles, but I'm not positive.

His stats as of today are nowhere near 300", neither am I.  

Snow Data as of
9 am February 22, 2019

 

New snow in the past 24 hours: 0.5″
Snow on the Ground:  47″
Season Total to Date: 214.5″

Several hundred feet lower than I am. I'm at >1200, he's around 750-800 feet. You see a sharp change on the spine of the Keweenaw. Lake Linden is 4 miles away and has much less snow.

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48 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Several hundred feet lower than I am. I'm at >1200, he's around 750-800 feet. You see a sharp change on the spine of the Keweenaw. Lake Linden is 4 miles away and has much less snow.

That's nuts... I've followed him since I was like 15.  His snow depth even in Lake Linden was always Impressive.  Usually peaked in March, and was at the most 4'.  I know his newer location is much better than Lake Linden.  I see extreme snow depth differences between here and Marquette, as well, so yeah.

Full sun and a high of 31 today caused the snow pack here to shrink a couple inches... stake is reading 54" before the storm.  I'm thinking you will get your blizzard warning you're wanting.

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7 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Not saying he lives in Lake Linden (he did way back) but Lake Linden is the most obvious elevational difference.

 

Dee lives south of Mohawk but several hundred feet lower.

Lake Linden also downslopes from the spine

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Wait and see mode here. Any small trend could mean 0” or 6-10” here so we’ll just have to hope for something fun 

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Rain pouring down fairly heavily early this morning.  Temp is just above freezing at 33.  Looking forward to some potential thunder later this afternoon/early this evening.  55-60mph wind gusts look possible later tonight and tomorrow morning.  The high wind watch has been downgraded to a wind advisory for the DVN cwa, but it's a high-end advisory that may end up needing upgrading if things get out of hand.

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Burst of mod/heavy snow now with the initial wave which should give us 1-2”. Brutal cutoff across the metro, SE locations could push 6-8”+ by Sunday morning with less then half that NW. Winds will get interesting later today and tomorrow, travel in rural areas could become nearly impossible.  

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A blizzard warning remains a possibility

MQT

Snow will still be heavy thru the morning across the w and n central as cyclonic flow backing from n to nw and caa bring increasing lake/upslope enhancement. While there is considerable ice cover over western Lake Superior, strong winds will open up larger gaps in the ice to allow for an increase in lake heat/moisture fluxes. Winds fields will rapidly strengthen on the backside of the departing and still deepening system. 850mb winds are fcst to increase to 50-60kt during the day. These strong winds will displace upslope/lake enhancement farther inland than normally occurs. Often in such cases, enhancement will be displaced beyond the Keweenaw, and may end up with Baraga County/parts of Marquette County sw into southern Ontonagon/nw Iron County seeing the best enhancement despite nw winds in the aftn

Fortunately, strongest winds don`t coincide with heaviest snow occurring overnight tonight into Sun morning. Nonetheless, quite possible blizzard warnings will need to be hoisted for Sun aftn into Sun night where nw flow upslope/lake enhancement is most persistent.

Tab2FileL.png.115ef33dba5c1ceb73496b0a97709306.png

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Gonna be interesting how quickly it will transition to snow. Being on the edge of that razor sucks haha

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Still in the “I don’t know” section, but I feel decent about picking up 3” or so. Still a county away from blizzard warnings

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