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Hoosier

Spring 2019 Discussion

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I don't really see a Spring like pattern anytime soon (sure, there will be some warmups) but I'm getting the itch.  

Going to keep expectations low.  Just be less wintry than last April.  You wouldn't think that would be hard to do.

Any thoughts?

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3 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Hasn't there been some guidance showing troughs in the west from mid March on?  Like Euro weeklies?  We can always hope for a more active storm season than we've had of late.

Yep. Late March --> April I believe. I'm ready for a nice severe season. :p

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To me it looks like it'll continue fairly active the rest of this much and into the first few weeks of March as well along with a cold air supply by to the north to keep things interesting for the snow lovers. The storm track will depend on the strength/placement of the SE ridge and we could see several big systems/cutters between now and the middle of March. After that, it does look like we'll see a turn to a more widespread mild pattern. 

 

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33 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not loving the look of the GFS in the long range w/single digits and below over most of the upper Midwest into early March, yeah it's fantasyland but it keeps popping up.

Several good years had bad Marchs, that doesn't concern me too much. The things that I like as a whole going into this spring:

1. All the rain in the OH/TN valley

2. Strong baroclinicity 

3. Strong LLJs already with quick recovery before a system several times this year.

4. An absurd amount of western snow in the mid to late season 

5. Tendency for strong -PNA and any ridging on the west coast has been progressive and transient.

The main question is what areas should do well. Whether it is the SE/MW/Plains, I do feel someone and maybe even all 3 have the potential to do well.

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not loving the look of the GFS in the long range w/single digits and below over most of the upper Midwest into early March, yeah it's fantasyland but it keeps popping up.

I'm not as concerned about that as I would be to see deep cold penetration into the south.  

Let's be honest.  While areas north of I-80 can get severe weather in March/April, it is sort of bonus territory that far north with plenty of years having little.  

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45 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not as concerned about that as I would be to see deep cold penetration into the south.  

Let's be honest.  While areas north of I-80 can get severe weather in March/April, it is sort of bonus territory that far north with plenty of years having little.  

This is the big take away I have been seeing even with the big systems the gulf isn't getting obliterated.

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4 hours ago, Stebo said:

Several good years had bad Marchs, that doesn't concern me too much. The things that I like as a whole going into this spring:

1. All the rain in the OH/TN valley

2. Strong baroclinicity 

3. Strong LLJs already with quick recovery before a system several times this year.

4. An absurd amount of western snow in the mid to late season 

5. Tendency for strong -PNA and any ridging on the west coast has been progressive and transient.

The main question is what areas should do well. Whether it is the SE/MW/Plains, I do feel someone and maybe even all 3 have the potential to do well.

Great points.  At least we won't have to be concerned with moisture availability given what is happening now and in the near future with the TN and OH valleys.  Also I remember traveling into the Ohio River Valley to see the flooding in spring 2011.  Yes, many other factors came into play, but that year certainly stands out svr wx wise.

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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Great points.  At least we won't have to be concerned with moisture availability given what is happening now and in the near future with the TN and OH valleys.  Also I remember traveling into the Ohio River Valley to see the flooding in spring 2011.  Yes, many other factors came into play, but that year certainly stands out svr wx wise.

2008 late winter major flooding in OH/TN/MS valleys as well.

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13 hours ago, Stebo said:

2008 late winter major flooding in OH/TN/MS valleys as well.

I feel like those floods are the forgotten ones in 2008. If I remember right they were pretty severe in of themselves, except they got way overshadowed by June's flooding.

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3 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

I feel like those floods are the forgotten ones in 2008. If I remember right they were pretty severe in of themselves, except they got way overshadowed by June's flooding.

Yeah the 2008 floods in June were very extreme, some places breaking 1993 numbers.

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah the 2008 floods in June were very extreme, some places breaking 1993 numbers.

It was pretty bad especially in and around this part of Wisconsin.  On the subject of flooding i'm pretty concerned about flooding this spring. At least around here we currently have a pretty decent snowpack and there's even more to our north as they haven't had the thaws we've had. Plus our already high soil moisture from august and any quick melt or heavy rain event in the next few months could really put us in trouble.

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Just now, Geoboy645 said:

It was pretty bad especially in and around this part of Wisconsin.  On the subject of flooding i'm pretty concerned about flooding this spring. At least around here we currently have a pretty decent snowpack and there's even more to our north as they haven't had the thaws we've had. Plus our already high soil moisture from august and any quick melt or heavy rain event in the next few months could really put us in trouble.

Agreed, I was concerned about a heavy snow pack from this winter on top of the excessive rainfall we received late last summer. Interesting and perhaps troublesome times ahead.

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10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

looks like a lot of forecasts calling for a wintry first half of March and then an evacuation of all signs of winter for the second half.    Would LOVE that.

Yes please! 

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18 hours ago, andyhb said:

*looks at end of the 12z Euro*

*sees massive AK/Beaufort sea ridge and downstream Hudson Bay low/TPV*

giphy.gif

:axe:

Every **** spring. Still, it's the long range but I'd rather see it not even on the table. If it does happen, we can hope it's transient and doesn't lock in for 8 weeks straight like those patterns tend to do. I think odds are better if the West remains cold/snowy and we don't get another SSW event - to which I say -
 

 

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I'm for sure concerned about spring flooding here. There's currently 4-6'' of water in the snow here. With systems next week it could be 7-8''. Hopefully next month doesn't get too warm and rainy. Spring flood outlook should be out in a week or too.

Screenshot1.png.bbf9ed108f6738b0c321276e15b6d229.png

Comparing the last spring floods in 2010 and 2011.

Screenshot2.png.26c19ae112e0217bfca037a620f0e13a.png

Screenshot3.png.a5c14ab755c3d0091b13f225f4ff883a.png

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1 hour ago, bowtie` said:

Had a small V of sandhill cranes honking the way back north today. A sure sign that Spring is soon on the way.

Yep. Saw some yesterday up here. I know when I hear them that spring isn't far off. My brother also saw a robin today.

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