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WxUSAF

PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats

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36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Usual jog north and...

719aa712d14212c512ed57411ca744c4.jpg

LMAO! Talk about a fringe job. I would rather have it miss by 200 miles than 2 miles!

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

LMAO! Talk about a fringe job. I would rather have it miss by 200 miles than 2 miles!

In all honesty though, if you're not in the heavy stuff it's just snow tv and the good stuff is probably 30 miles south or even further than that. 

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11 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

In all honesty though, if you're not in the heavy stuff it's just snow tv and the good stuff is probably 30 miles south or even further than that. 

Exactly.  As depicted, no one is accumulating much of anything outside the purples.

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Looking good for this Saturday down here in NW Stafford. Maybe a good 2-4" overall and into Fredericksburg. PUMMELED

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2 minutes ago, luckyamaha said:

Looking good for this Saturday down here in NW Stafford. Maybe a good 2-4" overall and into Fredericksburg. PUMMELED

See windshield wipers in figure A above

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

President’s Day weekend threat time of death. 4:45. 

It will go north tonight.  But will it be enough?

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Whiskey stout though!

Might as well. I’m Oat Cream IPAing it currently. What else is there to do since the best I’m now hoping for is a few high cirrus clouds to the south. My luck though...a cloudless sky with a blazing retina burning sun angle that skunks my deck beers. :lol:

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43 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I'll send pics of my pixie dust flurries.

I will send pics of fluffy clouds from the NYC metro area.

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Just now, Scraff said:

Might as well. I’m Oat Cream IPAing it currently. What else is there to do since the best I’m now hoping for is a few high cirrus clouds to the south. My luck though...a cloudless sky with a blazing retina burning sun angle that skunks my deck beers. :lol:

Nice!

If it isn't gonna snow Ill take a dry Saturday with temps around 40. Unfinished projects to get done. Love working outside in chilly temps. By the time April rolls around I hope to be done with the outside stuff, other than eradicating mosquitoes and mowing dandelions.

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7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Might as well. I’m Oat Cream IPAing it currently. What else is there to do since the best I’m now hoping for is a few high cirrus clouds to the south. My luck though...a cloudless sky with a blazing retina burning sun angle that skunks my deck beers. :lol:

This is what I am drinking. Good stuff. Didn't feel like forking over the bucks for the KBS, and this is not much different.

11443360333854.png.9331e563521c2425816da4c0fa37e7ef.png

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we needed a south trend this past weekend--it went  north. We need a north trend this weekend--it goes south. It never ends

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Just now, Ji said:

we needed a south trend this past weekend--it went  north. We need a north trend this weekend--it goes south. It never ends

Take a break and come back in 2 weeks. Our last stand. My prediction tho- just as the western trough begins to progress east, the AO/NAO goes super positive, the trough retreats into N central Canada, and winter ends.

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Just now, terpsnation said:

FV3 looks healthier than 12z though...

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_fh66_trend.gif

i wish that it was the OP model this winter. It would be alot more fun...untill it came down to the actual storm...but the fantasies would have been fun!

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

we needed a south trend this past weekend--it went  north. We need a north trend this weekend--it goes south. It never ends

How much snow do you have ?

I only have 8.1 inches for the winter.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Take a break and come back in 2 weeks. Our last stand. My prediction tho- just as the western trough begins to progress east, the AO/NAO goes super positive, the trough retreats into N central Canada, and winter ends.

Yea..i wasnt impressed with EPS....looked like transient cold as trough went east...the NAO was non existant...basically it was a terrible run unless you like seeing a few days of blue in the east

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Just now, Ji said:

i wish that it was the OP model this winter. It would be alot more fun...untill it came down to the actual storm...but the fantasies would have been fun!

I think the FV3 scored better than GFS for the Jan storm though? Maybe it's only better than the GFS when we're actually going to get snow :D

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Just now, Snow88 said:

How much snow do you have ?

I only have 8.1 inches for the winter.

i only have 23 in a winter i was suppose to get 45. I am 22 inches below normal

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I think the FV3 scored better than GFS for the Jan storm though? Maybe it's only better than the GFS when we're actually going to get snow 

FV3 isn't that garbage in short range. Did better than the GFS for the Jan storm and 12/09, but that is probably mostly because it tends to snow a lot more snow and those were both positive busts for areas they hit.

 

It almost looks like it wants to turn the Saturday storm into a coastal with that north-to-east heavy stripe.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i only have 23 in a winter i was suppose to get 45. I am 22 inches below normal

Tough winter for a lot of winter. This was supposed to be a very good winter for  alot of areas. 

Maine is the only area who is really cashing in.

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