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WxUSAF

February 10-12, 2019 Storm

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS wind field is actually a really good signal for precip enhancement for our northern tier on that run. Easterly surface flow banked against the terrain should provide enhancement to the precip field across Carroll county to Frederick Co north of I-70. Temps will certainly struggle to climb with that setup across the area. Good run for frozen. 

I thought it was a good run too. Mostly all frozen up here. Not sure on how much snow but would think at least decent amount. Get the high a little stronger and slightly better positioned and this could be a nasty event.

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21 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Pretty nuts.  Good hit for our northern friends.  (and people always complain that cutters never move, :guitar:).  Secondary pops off the VA coastline.

I think this fallacy is due to 2 things...

1.  We don't usually track the details on a rainstorm.  There is a HUGE areal coverage of rain in any system, but a fairly small area of snow.  We only care about the snow.  We can be 50 miles or 500 miles from the rain snow line and it makes no difference to us.  We also don't notice when our qpf goes from 1.25 to .75 or from .75 to .5 in the rainfall area.  We stop following it closely once we are out of the game for snow and so we simply assume...rain is rain and it never changes but it does.  

2.  There was a time when outside of 48 hours systems were MUCH more likely to trend north than south.  That time is gone.  Inside 48 hours they still mostly trend north.  But outside 48 hours systems are just as likely to trend south as north now.  We have had several snowstorms the last 5 years that were supposed to go north of us at day 5.  The December storm trended south between day 3-6.  The January storm was rain at day 7+.  The anafront wave last week trended southeast from range.  It happens a lot now but I think the thought that north is more likely than south persists even though that bias in the guidance has been corrected.  

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The GFS is pretty much following up on my morning post in regards to what I felt the EPS may be moving towards.

Compare the overnight GFS run to the latest one.

12zgfs.gif.5fc9b36ce31f548ed0f62012a76686be.gif

 

00zgfs.gif.54d8417a6e40fe52dc1bfe1b44593d5d.gif

 

Much weaker primary, an adjusted track to the east, and now we are seeing signs of a possible transfer into the Tennessee/Kentucky Valley. And the reason I mentioned earlier that I didn't think redevelopment around OBX was off the table is shown here. As you can see lower pressures are now showing in that region and if you move forward in time you see coastal development. One has to wonder if what we may be eventually looking at is a hop scotching of the low pressure into Tenn/Kentucky and then off the coast where the coastal becomes the dominate low in fairly rapid order. Also, not that I am a fan of the ICON, but it is also coming in weaker with an adjusted track to the East. As far as the CMC it is out to lunch. But we are talking only some of the model's op runs here so let's see what the others have to say and especially what the ensembles think before we maybe start buying into the possibility of this weaker more easterly primary solution.

 

 

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Ukie also coming in  flatter and weaker overall . It takes the primary due east from hr 96 to 120 with hardly any north trajectory and it hints at coastal redevelopment.  It should be a decent hit me thinks.  The high is weaker then other guidance but with that track and weaker primary should be good bit of  frozen 

 

Screenshot_20190207-120400_Chrome_crop_540x668.jpg

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think we can rely heavily on climo at this point. CAD is pressing in better than any previous attempt this year so I'm inclined to just go off memory of previous events. Starting to feel like you will get a warning level event before the flip. My yard will get the kitchen sink but still put up some numbers. DC might be in some trouble here but I'm always rooting for them. 

If other guidance can shift towards the GFS/FV3 idea of the secondary being more dominant I would be happy.  I will take less snow (say 4" vs 6") if we could get some low level cold air to hold due to a secondary and finish with some snow otg.  

There is a big difference between a thump snow to dryslot and 33 degree drizzle (miller b solution) and the same amount of snow to a 12 hour driving 48 degree rainstorm imo.  I know some don't care about that difference but I do.  I don't need snow to stick around forever...but at least long enough to enjoy it for a couple days.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

If other guidance can shift towards the GFS/FV3 idea of the secondary being more dominant I would be happy.  I will take less snow (say 4" vs 6") if we could get some low level cold air to hold due to a secondary and finish with some snow otg.  

There is a big difference between a thump snow to dryslot and 33 degree drizzle (miller b solution) and the same amount of snow to a 12 hour driving 48 degree rainstorm imo.  I know some don't care about that difference but I do.  I don't need snow to stick around forever...but at least long enough to enjoy it for a couple days.  

I’m with you PSU.  I would take 2” that sticks around over 4” followed by deluge. I’m sure others will disagree though.  

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27 minutes ago, LP08 said:

FV3 looks to have a nice thump to dry slot. 

This sounds pretty familiar to a lot of snow events that we used to have around here.  A nice 3-6" and then drizzle and mid 30's.  It would be fine with me.

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The GFS is pretty much following up on my morning post in regards to what I felt the EPS may be moving towards.

Compare the overnight GFS run to the latest one.

12zgfs.gif.5fc9b36ce31f548ed0f62012a76686be.gif

 

00zgfs.gif.54d8417a6e40fe52dc1bfe1b44593d5d.gif

 

Much weaker primary, an adjusted track to the east, and now we are seeing signs of a possible transfer into the Tennessee/Kentucky Valley. And the reason I mentioned earlier that I didn't think redevelopment around OBX was off the table is shown here. As you can see lower pressures are now showing in that region and if you move forward in time you see coastal development. One has to wonder if what we may be eventually looking at is a hop scotching of the low pressure into Tenn/Kentucky and then off the coast where the coastal becomes the dominate low in fairly rapid order. Also, not that I am a fan of the ICON, but it is also coming in weaker with an adjusted track to the East. As far as the CMC it is out to lunch. But we are talking only some of the model's op runs here so let's see what the others have to say and especially what the ensembles think before we maybe start buying into the possibility of this weaker more easterly primary solution.

 

 

Day 5 Fronts and Pressures

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If other guidance can shift towards the GFS/FV3 idea of the secondary being more dominant I would be happy.  I will take less snow (say 4" vs 6") if we could get some low level cold air to hold due to a secondary and finish with some snow otg.  

There is a big difference between a thump snow to dryslot and 33 degree drizzle (miller b solution) and the same amount of snow to a 12 hour driving 48 degree rainstorm imo.  I know some don't care about that difference but I do.  I don't need snow to stick around forever...but at least long enough to enjoy it for a couple days.  

Don't disagree with any of the above. I think you and I have different orders of logic though. My head is still trying to decide if I get any snow at all. Once that piece is locked in I'll shift focus to progression/duration/temps/ptype etc. I usually don't get too invested there until all variations produce meaningful snowfall in my yard. Hopefully by sometime on Sat that piece is mostly locked up. 

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We lose the 850s on the 12z UKIE between hours of 120 and 126 south of DC and between 126 and 132 north of DC into Maryland... temps sit around 30 to near freezing for awhile... rising to 34 or so at most through the rest if the run

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

We lose the 850s on the 12z UKIE between hours of 120 and 126... temps sit around 30 to near freezing for awhile 

Sounds similar to the gfs?

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

We lose the 850s on the 12z UKIE between hours of 120 and 126... temps sit around 30 to near freezing for awhile 

What are we seeing in regards to the primary running into the lakes compared to its 00Z run?

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

What are we seeing in regards to the primary running into the lakes compared to its 00Z run?

Still runs into the lakes... but thump of snow comes first.  SLP is 1003 to 1006mb FWIW 

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56 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS wind field is actually a really good signal for precip enhancement for our northern tier on that run. Easterly surface flow banked against the terrain should provide enhancement to the precip field across Carroll county to Frederick Co north of I-70. Temps will certainly struggle to climb with that setup across the area. Good run for frozen. 

I'm listening...

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Still runs into the lakes... but thump of snow comes first.  SLP is 1003 to 1006mb FWIW 

I posted above . Much flatter at h5  then 0z 

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look at the little lobe rotating down around the 50/50 at just the right time to add a little extra confluence and suppress the flow a bit.  Maybe one of these works in our favor this time.  

1593921319_gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh78-108(1).thumb.gif.e89cd0769f3e597e0eaf2f968ad6d187.gif

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18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs looks much improved.  Quicker ejection of energy  , stronger high , better cad .

First time I've seen no shutout solutions DC northward. Very good run. I think we're getting close to locking in a CAD thump and not seeing much support if any to keep the primary from staying south of us. Still time to shift but with gun to head I'd say the chances of that are pretty low. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

look at the little lobe rotating down around the 50/50 at just the right time to add a little extra confluence and suppress the flow a bit.  Maybe one of these works in our favor this time.  

 

Been keeping an eye over top in regards to such a feature for the last few days. This is why I wasn't as overly concerned as you and Ji were with a slower solution with the primary. But the models are having a rough time with the NS stream so that may be something we don't know if we have or not until close in time.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

First time I've seen no shutout solutions DC northward. Very good run. I think we're getting close to locking in a CAD thump and not seeing much support if any to keep the primary from staying south of us. Still time to shift but with gun to head I'd say the chances of that are pretty low. 

Yeah starting to look good for DC North crew....us DC South crew know the drill well. Hope for the best and prepare for rain or slop. A couple inches that isn't immediately washed away would be a nice stat padder

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Just now, wawarriors4 said:

Yeah starting to look good for DC North crew....us DC South crew know the drill well. Hope for the best and prepare for rain or slop. A couple inches that isn't immediately washed away would be a nice stat padder

We haven't seen a CAD setup like this this year. It's entirely possible that the mid level cold gets driven down to the VA/NC border before WAA precip attacks. GFS has more of a warm bias than cold in the midrange. The most important piece (depth of midlevel CAD) won't be figured out until the short range. Of course I agree that the northern/western zone are in the best spots because they always are with these types of events but looks like a juiced up system. A good event in your yard is still very much on the table.  

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

First time I've seen no shutout solutions DC northward. Very good run. I think we're getting close to locking in a CAD thump and not seeing much support if any to keep the primary from staying south of us. Still time to shift but with gun to head I'd say the chances of that are pretty low. 

Have to agree in regards to the primary. Think the chances are pretty strong we see that move above our latitude to the west. Question I have is, can we see a transference of pressures southeastwards to off the coast where a possible coastal can become the dominate low below our latitude. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We haven't seen a CAD setup like this this year. It's entirely possible that the mid level cold gets driven down to the VA/NC border before WAA precip attacks. GFS has more of a warm bias than cold in the midrange. The most important piece (depth of midlevel CAD) won't be figured out until the short range. Of course I agree that the northern/western zone are in the best spots because they always are with these types of events but looks like a juiced up system. A good event in your yard is still very much on the table.  

Reminds me of 2/20/15 storm where the CAD held on long enough for an 8” thump.  Of course the big difference is that (I think) temps were in the teens leading up to that storm.  

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Have to agree in regards to the primary. Think the chances are pretty strong we see that move above our latitude to the west. Question I have is, can we see a transference of pressures southeastwards to off the coast where a possible coastal can become the dominate low below our latitude. 

I also think a transfer will occur with this. 9lh_conus.gif

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