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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of early next week.  Like the GFS said hell if I know just post the same scenario 

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Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of early next week.  Like the GFS said hell if I know just post the same scenario 
You would think the pattern would be better by then

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of early next week.  Like the GFS said hell if I know just post the same scenario 

You would think the pattern would be better by then

Good one.  Won’t look like that anyway.  Maybe Friday will deliver. Looking at the models is folly so who knows. 

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of early next week.  Like the GFS said hell if I know just post the same scenario 

You would think the pattern would be better by then

I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and  50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at.

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I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and  50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at.
We might have to wait till week 3(lol) to get the cleanest looks but I think starting next week every threat is a threat

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and  50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at.

Yeah I meant the op runs.  Agree things are virtually playing out like predicted.  

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and  50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at.

We might have to wait till week 3(lol) to get the cleanest looks but I think starting next week every threat is a threat

The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly  cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers.

Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly  cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers.

Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this.

Especially this time of year. Cold dry warm wet for 3 more weeks and Winter is just about in the books. I’ll take active chips fall mode any February 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly  cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers.

Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this.

Im fine w that if the mixed ends up >50% frozen. If at the end it was a bunch of 1-2” washed away by rain like the last few epo gradient patterns I’ll pass. 

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@Bob Chill

even up here it’s hit or miss. There have been some epic epo patterns that built a glaciers here like feb 1993 and feb 1994 but more often the MO without blocking is 1-2” and a lot of rain.  Not always. I’ll feel a lot better about our chances once real blocking sets up and there is a locked in 50/50.  This setup was almost perfect but the NAO breaks down 24 hours too soon and might open the door to a cut. 

For anyone else wondering we would want the NAO to relax and break if we had a +pna but with a -pna it needs to hold enough to force storms under us despite a bad trough axis. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Im fine w that if the mixed ends up >50% frozen. If at the end it was a bunch of 1-2” washed away by rain like the last few epo gradient patterns I’ll pass. 

Based on the hp strength and placements we keep seeing, I don't see that as a problem. Get a few of those and one will prob hit a wall of confluence and force the mess under us and hit us pretty flush. No shortage of 1040s+ showing up in between shortwaves. Even though the atl isn't ideal, it's still a lot better than this winter's base state so far. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Based on the hp strength and placements we keep seeing, I don't see that as a problem. Get a few of those and one will prob hit a wall of confluence and force the mess under us and hit us pretty flush. No shortage of 1040s+ showing up in between shortwaves. Even though the atl isn't ideal, it's still a lot better than this winter's base state so far. 

I tend to agree...just being guarded given my fail so far. 

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That looks awful 

Lol no it doesn’t...it’s decent with that blocking...but we knew it looked that way because that’s just the end of last nights eps. The weeklies start day 16.  Plus that transitions into a great look as the blocking slowly shifts the trough east.

This is all contingent on the eps (and gefs lately) progression being correct. The transition week would be the risk of sw to ne waves. Think the pattern now but shifted south. After that we would be in the more classic pna NAO pattern needing coastal amplification. Hecs hunting as ji would say. 

I can see a mix of feb 2003 transitioning to March 1958/1960/1962 if i channel my inner JB. 

Its a damn good run. Whether it’s right is another matter. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This panel is the greatest risk of snow.  The 2 after are the greatest risk of a big storm. 

I am, of course, across the pond this week so it will happen and I will miss it! I am certain! LOL! I mean, if it comes true! I would be so sad! No help in any analysis - just would be so sad!

 

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36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Im fine w that if the mixed ends up >50% frozen. If at the end it was a bunch of 1-2” washed away by rain like the last few epo gradient patterns I’ll pass. 

Same. That's why I'm about to to toss the upcoming threat (unless it becomes snowier as we get closer, of course! :D) because it seems messy overall...a sloppy 2-3 inches ain't gonna get me to climo!! Any chance we see a clean snow look by PD weekend? Lol

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48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I tend to agree...just being guarded given my fail so far. 

i am a bit perturbed/distubed by how many midwest/ohio valley storm the GFS/FV3/Euro is showing in long range

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can see a mix of feb 2003 transitioning to March 1958/1960/1962 if i channel my inner JB. 

Its a damn good run. Whether it’s right is another matter. 

Ah.......to enhance your "channeling"  experience may I suggest a lovely incense candle.    Seriously though lets see what happens next. But,  I can dig 1958.   

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In regards to the Pac 

 

from a very good poster at 33andrain , he knows his stuff. Called for this warm period three weeks ago and right on target, when others stated no way, it is going to be cold. 

<<

In other news....

250hPaJet_prob_1.gif

Jet retraction peaks on the 11th. We are going a bit back and forth. Also good news is a tint towards the equator in terms of the STJ.

 

That last week of the month looks pretty good for snowfall chances. The MJO is certainly a big player in that

 

>>>>

 

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol no it doesn’t...it’s decent with that blocking...but we knew it looked that way because that’s just the end of last nights eps. The weeklies start day 16.  Plus that transitions into a great look as the blocking slowly shifts the trough east.

This is all contingent on the eps (and gefs lately) progression being correct. The transition week would be the risk of sw to ne waves. Think the pattern now but shifted south. After that we would be in the more classic pna NAO pattern needing coastal amplification. Hecs hunting as ji would say. 

I can see a mix of feb 2003 transitioning to March 1958/1960/1962 if i channel my inner JB. 

Its a damn good run. Whether it’s right is another matter. 

Ash Wednesday '62 .  Havent had a stalled cutoff spring nor'Easter like that in forever it seems. 

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