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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

So is it the lack of blocking and no confidence in the long range models showing snow? 

I am concerned ,as  I mentioned earlier, by the AO and the NAO. 

Plus, when things go a certain way for a LONG time, such as Midwest snows and rain on us, even after it  is 5 degrees what is to say we get  a great window late month. 

Honestly a pros and cons list would at this time would be equal and in that case you have to weight it in favor of less snow.    

It's a multitude of things fdr. And what I have seen within the models this winter is like Bill Murray in Ground Hog Day. Just the same old crap. Decent to very good looks in the long range continually degrade until the reality is they are mediocre at best. And that is exactly what I am seeing once again with the models. Now hopefully PSU is right in his thoughts with the SOI and MJO. And maybe the blocking and the 50/50 are the real deal. But until I actually see it in reality it is just another fantasy, one of many this year. I don't know, this winter had so much promise heading in and this is where we now sit. So maybe I am just bitter like CAPE. :) 

 

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32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol your usually way more optimistic than me. Unusual turn here. Makes me wonder if I’m relying on the pacific forcing and model error too much. 

Just really haven't liked with what I have been seeing with the trends on the models for the last week or so. I hope you are right about the MJO and the SOI flipping the PAC shortly otherwise I don't like where we are sitting even with a 50/50. Short of seeing strong western based -NAO along with that 50/50 the western extent of the troughing suggests cutter after cutter. Even if we do see a flip I wonder how much of a delay we are talking. Think I saw you mention 7 days? Really starting to run out of time here.

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I'm with psu on the next couple weeks to maybe a full month. Shorter wavelengths and tighter spacing in Feb changes the storm landscape. A shutout pattern is always a deathblow but even flawed in Feb can work  and early March too. Imho- we're more likely to have a good to great pattern than a continuation of what we have now. The PNA oscillates far more often than locking in for a month+. I strongly believe the PNA will shift out of hostile mode this month. 

I'll just throw this out there and if I bust then bump troll the hell out of me... by next weekend we will be tracking a potential large storm and also will be staring down the barrel of a good to maybe even great North American upper level pattern for the foreseeable future. I predict many uncancel posts and lots of optimism for getting a flush hit from a nice coastal. 

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27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just really haven't liked with what I have been seeing with the trends on the models for the last week or so. I hope you are right about the MJO and the SOI flipping the PAC shortly otherwise I don't like where we are sitting even with a 50/50. Short of seeing strong western based -NAO along with that 50/50 the western extent of the troughing suggests cutter after cutter. Even if we do see a flip I wonder how much of a delay we are talking. Think I saw you mention 7 days? Really starting to run out of time here.

Forgetting the mjo plots just looking at the pressure and chi charts the forcing looks to enter favorable locations east of the dateline in just a few days. With a 5-7 day lag by day 10 we should be feeling it. Guidance has been trending more trough unto the east through day 8-9 and then reloads the se ridge. 

2 thoughts. That could just be an error and they are doing what they did all year and not seeing the mjo right. 

Also there is a lot of snow within the ensembles (and now the ops too) despite the ridge. I have a thought on that. Tell me if you think this makes sense. 

The se ridge may not be totally pac driven. There might be some other cause. I say that because even runs that pull the western trough back and split pressing a trough into the east still have some se ridge. It’s muted with a trough over the top, and those are the really snowy runs actually as that scenario sets up the kind of boundary war we can win with a muted se ridge resisting and throwing waa back over pressing cold over the top. That’s a PD2 type setup. Of course that was an extreme example but that idea works in general. When the se ridge is connected to the pacific and is being pumped by the trough out west is when we really are in trouble.  A trough split with some diving down west and some diving in on top the se ridge is better. 

So either it is pac driven and then it’s wrong. The pac forcing should encourage the cold to try to dive into the eastern conus. Or it’s not pac driven in which that’s ok too as cold pressing on top a muted ridge is the kind of exception to the rule that works here.  That’s actually how 2003, 2014, and 2015 worked. 

You think I’m off my rocker here or might there be something to that idea?  Been kicking it around in my head since yesterday when the weird snowy SE ridge solutions started showing up. 

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44 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I don't know, this winter had so much promise heading in and this is where we now sit. So maybe I am just bitter like CAPE. :) 

It has driven me crazy and bitter too !  But maybe, just maybe if we see run over run, over run improvements we can hopefully think a better window is coming up. 

For example if today the GEFS continues with a better look and then the EPS does as well and it contimues for say 5  days I think you can then feel much better the period after Feb 20th will improve.  

Things should move to a -NOA and the trough in the West should start to move East.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm with psu on the next couples weeks to maybe a full month. Shorter wavelengths and tighter spacing in Feb changes the storm landscape. A shutout pattern is always a deathblow but even flawed in Feb can work  and early March too. Imho- we're more likely to have a good to great pattern than a continuation of what we have now. The PNA oscillates far more often than locking in for a month+. I strongly believe the PNA will shift out of hostile mode this month. 

I'll just throw this out there and if I bust then bump troll the hell out of me... by next weekend we will be tracking a potential large storm and also will be staring down the barrel of a good to maybe even great North American upper level pattern for the foreseeable future. I predict many uncancel posts and lots of optimism for getting a flush hit from a nice coastal. 

Chuck hacked your account Bob. Is that really you ?  LOL

But hey,  I am with you till the end.   I agree that the end of Feb should be decent.  I still like an early March strong coastal system. Based partly on analogs and the pattern progression. 

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Wanted to add something to my previous post. I'm not expecting a quick flip to a classic +pna. My thoughts are more along the lines of the big western trough backing off enough to not have the rubber band effect with the SE ridge. A neutral pna with a decent atlantic can be a big east coast storm pattern. Drawn out overrunning or a real coastal. I think the setup is coming to our yards soon. Luck and chaos is needed to finish the job (like always)

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Wanted to add something to my previous post. I'm not expecting a quick flip to a classic +pna. My thoughts are more along the lines of the big western trough backing off enough to not have the rubber band effect with the SE ridge. A neutral pna with a decent atlantic can be a big east coast storm pattern. Drawn out overrunning or a real coastal. I think the setup is coming to our yards soon. Luck and chaos is needed to finish the job (like always)

I’ve felt good for a solid February storm the entire winter. Don’t see a reason to change that.

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45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve felt good for a solid February storm the entire winter. Don’t see a reason to change that.

I really like what the ops and ens are doing in the d8-10 range. We need to root for the later week rain storm to blow up as much as possible. 12z euro is sweet AF. I think this next window might be the real deal. Just need luck and choas to break right. Upper levels look great for now. Hope it holds...

Eta: before people bitch and moan about the verbatim solution on the 12z euro, I'm looking at the big picture. I see good potential for drawn out overrunning or PD2 redux if the stars align. Prob just the beginning of a better stretch down the line.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I really like what the ops and ens are doing in the d8-10 range. We need to root for the later week rain storm to blow up as much as possible. 12z euro is sweet AF. I think this next window might be the real deal. Just need luck and choas to break right. Upper levels look great for now. Hope it holds...

Luck AND chaos? Aren't we greedy lol

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Luck AND chaos? Aren't we greedy lol

Those 2 ingredients are more important than any teleconnection. We always need both. The event on our doorstep could have gone either way. Bad luck and choas stole my snow so they owe me now.

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Euro tries to get a ull under us Saturday.  Almost does it.  As is ..gets wraparound snow for northern areas.  A couple gefs members actually got energy under us day 6 as well  . A longer shot I'm sure but you never know. 

 

Screenshot_20190210-140809_Chrome_crop_432x725.jpg

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm with psu on the next couple weeks to maybe a full month. Shorter wavelengths and tighter spacing in Feb changes the storm landscape. A shutout pattern is always a deathblow but even flawed in Feb can work  and early March too. Imho- we're more likely to have a good to great pattern than a continuation of what we have now. The PNA oscillates far more often than locking in for a month+. I strongly believe the PNA will shift out of hostile mode this month. 

I'll just throw this out there and if I bust then bump troll the hell out of me... by next weekend we will be tracking a potential large storm and also will be staring down the barrel of a good to maybe even great North American upper level pattern for the foreseeable future. I predict many uncancel posts and lots of optimism for getting a flush hit from a nice coastal. 

wow!  I dont often see you go out in a limb like that Bob.  Anyway here’s hoping that limb is a strong one.  For the sake if the emotions in this subforum i really do hope you are onto something!

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1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

When the ridge is NE of Greenland like this in the long range, it never verifies as -NAO. European ridge now.

f384-6.gif

I am still waiting on your mega -NAO call a while ago.  No one can predict the NAO at long leads with confidence. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

I am still waiting on your mega -NAO call a while ago.  No one can predict the NAO at long leads with confidence. 

 

 

Chuck Norris once exhaled and created a neg NAO. 

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z GEFS says we may finally get some semblance of the h5 pattern of our dreams in time for March.

It does...but before that I LOVE seeing those 3-4 southeast HECS members!  Of course we don’t want to see the majority go that way or else it’s the maestro 1980 or 1973 nightmare, but given the type pattern seeing a few 20” NC snowstorms just makes me feel there is both the stj fetch we need and a good chance the boundary stays south of us this time. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Forgetting the mjo plots just looking at the pressure and chi charts the forcing looks to enter favorable locations east of the dateline in just a few days. With a 5-7 day lag by day 10 we should be feeling it. Guidance has been trending more trough unto the east through day 8-9 and then reloads the se ridge. 

2 thoughts. That could just be an error and they are doing what they did all year and not seeing the mjo right. 

Also there is a lot of snow within the ensembles (and now the ops too) despite the ridge. I have a thought on that. Tell me if you think this makes sense. 

The se ridge may not be totally pac driven. There might be some other cause. I say that because even runs that pull the western trough back and split pressing a trough into the east still have some se ridge. It’s muted with a trough over the top, and those are the really snowy runs actually as that scenario sets up the kind of boundary war we can win with a muted se ridge resisting and throwing waa back over pressing cold over the top. That’s a PD2 type setup. Of course that was an extreme example but that idea works in general. When the se ridge is connected to the pacific and is being pumped by the trough out west is when we really are in trouble.  A trough split with some diving down west and some diving in on top the se ridge is better. 

So either it is pac driven and then it’s wrong. The pac forcing should encourage the cold to try to dive into the eastern conus. Or it’s not pac driven in which that’s ok too as cold pressing on top a muted ridge is the kind of exception to the rule that works here.  That’s actually how 2003, 2014, and 2015 worked. 

You think I’m off my rocker here or might there be something to that idea?  Been kicking it around in my head since yesterday when the weird snowy SE ridge solutions started showing up. 

I tend to agree. I think the PAC is a partial reason for the SE ridging but I think there are times something else is contributing to it as well because it hasn't behaved quite the way I would expect it to. I just have no idea what. I understand your thoughts on how everything can still work with SE ridging because I have shared those thoughts over the last couple of weeks as well and have actually argued it can be a winner and potentially a big one. But the tendencies I have seen are that when it is splitting the energy diving down from the NW it is dropping to much into the SW which is not helping the cause with the SE ridging at all as it is helping to pump up heights. To further complicate the issue these drops into the west are occurring farther west then I envisioned so we are seeing a bump up of heights farther west then what we need to see.  So basically a double whammy where the heights are too strong and they are occurring underneath us instead of more up the coast line. I think what irks me the most is that in the long ranges the models have shown a very workable pattern with muted SE ridging farther to the east only to strengthen and shift that feature westward. Then it becomes congrats Cleveland or even Chicago as systems cut. And I think that is what we are seeing once again on the models.

I really am at the point where I think we need to see a legit PAC flip otherwise we are talking mediocrity for the next few weeks. Now Bob brought up a good point with the shorter wavelengths as we start transitioning into spring. One of the reasons I have believed we do see an eventual flip. But at that point will it be too late? Get a KU and all will be forgiven but if all that flip means is a cold and wet camping season then I will gladly forgo.

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54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I really like what the ops and ens are doing in the d8-10 range. We need to root for the later week rain storm to blow up as much as possible. 12z euro is sweet AF. I think this next window might be the real deal. Just need luck and choas to break right. Upper levels look great for now. Hope it holds...

Eta: before people bitch and moan about the verbatim solution on the 12z euro, I'm looking at the big picture. I see good potential for drawn out overrunning or PD2 redux if the stars align. Prob just the beginning of a better stretch down the line.

Since I can’t see the Euro, are you saying there is hope for something PD weekend or that you see a possibility of something developing the week after PD? 

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40 minutes ago, frd said:

I am still waiting on your mega -NAO call a while ago.  No one can predict the NAO at long leads with confidence. 

 

 

I was looking for an image that is pretty cool, has +anomalies at 500mb consistently for several months until the Stratosphere warming then it's all negative anomalies. We had until Feb 17, and I thought maybe on the backend because of expectation duality lol. My Winter NAO method predicted +0.70 for DJFM. 

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It does...but before that I LOVE seeing those 3-4 southeast HECS members!  Of course we don’t want to see the majority go that way or else it’s the maestro 1980 or 1973 nightmare, but given the type pattern seeing a few 20” NC snowstorms just makes me feel there is both the stj fetch we need and a good chance the boundary stays south of us this time. 

Yeah I am pretty optimistic about prospects for something the week of the 18th. Would be great if we could salvage something from next weekend's cutter, but I am not biting on the GFS with is back-ender. It would have to morph into something different and I doubt that happens.

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EPS looks very solid as well next 13 days. Tight gradient of 6 inches DC proper with over a foot for the southern part of the northern Md counties.  Several individual members have widespread foot across the DMV I’ve the next 2 weeks.  Not just a few individual members skewing the mean.

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EPS members really like a storm approaching from the south/west in the 8-10 day time frame after next weeks cutter.  Here is H5 the day leading up to it.

 

 

D79F4F8E-26A8-42C4-BA47-C42471FB489B.png

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14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I tend to agree. I think the PAC is a partial reason for the SE ridging but I think there are times something else is contributing to it as well because it hasn't behaved quite the way I would expect it to. I just have no idea what. I understand your thoughts on how everything can still work with SE ridging because I have shared those thoughts over the last couple of weeks as well and have actually argued it can be a winner and potentially a big one. But the tendencies I have seen are that when it is splitting the energy diving down from the NW it is dropping to much into the SW which is not helping the cause with the SE ridging at all as it is helping to pump up heights. To further complicate the issue these drops into the west are occurring farther west then I envisioned so we are seeing a bump up of heights farther west then what we need to see.  So basically a double whammy where the heights are too strong and they are occurring underneath us instead of more up the coast line. I think what irks me the most is that in the long ranges the models have shown a very workable pattern with muted SE ridging farther to the east only to strengthen and shift that feature westward. Then it becomes congrats Cleveland or even Chicago as systems cut. And I think that is what we are seeing once again on the models.

I really am at the point where I think we need to see a legit PAC flip otherwise we are talking mediocrity for the next few weeks. Now Bob brought up a good point with the shorter wavelengths as we start transitioning into spring. One of the reasons I have believed we do see an eventual flip. But at that point will it be too late? Get a KU and all will be forgiven but if all that flip means is a cold and wet camping season then I will gladly forgo.

I agree with all that but that has been the tendency with the mjo in phase 5-7 and a positive soi. That’s actually what you would expect and why I lost interest in late January into early February. With the mjo in 8 and the soi negative we should see the dominant energy try to dump into the east.  Some energy might split and dump west but I think the bigger piece ends up east. 

Im also encouraged to see the epo ridge weaken and sink south at range. As wavelengths shorten all that epo ridge is doing is encouraging energy to dump into the west. Get that south and this time of year you will direct some unto the trough east of Hawaii and the majority will get funneled east. We can work with a trough off the west coast this time of year. Actually some of our big snows had that look.  And we can live with some troughing in the west as long as the dominant northern stream is directed into the east to mute the se ridge response. 

All that wasn’t going to happen in mjo 5-7. They all favor the trough digging into the west.  That’s why I was in deb mode.  You had the right “idea” how to get this general pattern to work but the pac forcing wasn’t going to let that happen. It “should” pretty soon. 

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20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I am pretty optimistic about prospects for something the week of the 18th. Would be great if we could salvage something from next weekend's cutter, but I am not biting on the GFS with is back-ender. It would have to morph into something different and I doubt that happens.

I’m not either but the euro jumped on that too. Gives me 3” on the back end lol. I think that’s a long shot but as long as guidance keeps digging the h5 low under us I guess there is a chance. Not worry tracking though as that’s the type of thing that will change a lot every run. 

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