495weatherguy Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: John's knowledge and ability to articulate such are almost unparalleled, but I've noticed over the last couple seasons that his cold/snow bias has been showing through. He always seems to have a reason for optimism, which is great for us winter devotees... I just wonder whether it's the best thing to always present uncertainty in grand winter terms. Once in a while, it's nice to lay it out flat and say, "the next 2 weeks or so will have mild periods, and a range of potential outcomes exists after that." true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 21 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Would you stop with the everything is going as planned business. Just a week ago nobody was calling for a spike in temperatures to start February. Go back the middle of December and people were saying shortly after the New Year and the MJO was heading to the right phases. What happened? It did not work out. Forward to just a few weeks ago, February is looking better. Then boom, spike in temperatures shows up. While I hope February 10th we really see some snow, but no nothing went as 'planned' this winter. Most people's long range forecasts busted in December and have further busted in January. The only thing I might get right on my own LR forecast is +1.5 to +2.5F on DJF temperatures. My snowfall of 100-120% average is likely going to bust and bust hard. If he means going as planned meaning bust than I can't argue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: And it did happen but not here. Everything is going as planned. Not really. There's been 2 cold arctic shots and that's about it and even those were in and out with the lack of Atlantic blocking. The calls for sustained cold/snowy have not worked out to date. Maybe it changes, but the last month definitely did not go as planned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not really. There's been 2 cold arctic shots and that's about it and even those were in and out with the lack of Atlantic blocking. The calls for sustained cold/snowy have not worked out to date. Maybe it changes, but the last month definitely did not go as planned. Exactly! One would think that with the month finish just about average for temperature for the month, yet we had two truly historic cold blasts, that would show you really how mild we have been overall. I cannot remember a winter month with two major arctic outbreaks that did not finish the below average for temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 14 hours ago, Snow88 said: And it did happen but not here. Everything is going as planned. Every year has good storms, but they might as well be happening in Lake Tahoe, or Valdez, Alaska, or the Swiss Alps. If they don't happen here that has no effect on our winter. It's like going home to your parents after you failed a test and you saying BUT BUT THE GIRL/BOY THAT SITS NEXT TO ME GOT AN A! If you didn't get it it doesn't matter what anyone else did- YOU STILL FAILED! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 15 hours ago, Gravity Wave said: Didn't have any MJO support for that. And we did get 2 good storms, they just didn't work out for PHI-BOS. Like I said, if the person sitting next to me got an A on a test and I got an F- I still FAILED. It doesn't matter what someone far away did. Might as well have happened in the Swiss Alps. There are always going to be good storms every year. 2001-02 was far better if you dont get snow it's better to be warm and save on heating costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 15 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: One reason why I am just ready for this awful winter to be over. It is either rainy and warm or bone cold and dry. Not much room for outdoor sports and exercise. I would have already taken a vacation since the rain really brings me down, but with a 4 month old that can be hard. We are hoping to get to Vermont next month though to see some real snow. At one point we had more days with rain than we had dry days in his young life. I am hoping that we at least get out of this wet pattern by summer. If we dont get something by the end of February I'm hoping for warmth after that and a nice dry hot summer 80s style. 1980, 1983 and 1988 come to mind for some great 80s-style summers, the first two more than the third one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Looks like NYC is on track for its next 50 degree or greater temperature jump during the first week of February. 52 and over will do it with the low of 2 today. Within a week near or over DJF 50 degree temperature jumps for NYC since 2014 NYC 1-21-19.....4 1-24-19.....59 ................+55 2-17-18....28 2-21-18....78 ...............+50 1-7-18......5 1-12-18....61 ..............+56 1-9-17....14 1-12-17..66 .............+52 2-14-16....-1 2-20-16...61 ..............+62 1-5-16.....11 1-10-16...59 ..............+48 1-7-14.....4 1-11-14...58 ..............+54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2/6 marks the end of the coldest (climo) part of winter... daily temp averages begin to increase and sunlight really begins to increase and the lighter evenings become more and more noticeable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 17 hours ago, Isotherm said: Frd, there are a couple [major] reasons why the NAO is becoming increasingly negative. One is the z10 reintegration of the vortex and attendant push downward of the -ve circulation anomalies; aka, the downwelling is finally reaching the critical layers of the troposphere. And, secondly, the tropospheric receptivity to high latitude blocking is increasing by way of vicissitudes in the Pacific tropical forcing regime. Reweighting of centrally based warmth, easterly trades increasing in region 1+2, enhanced LL convergence/UL divergence near the dateline, signalling canonical walker cell emergence. Posted this on another board. U850 wind proxy is instructive. It's incontrovertible that the walker-cell orientation and attendant tropical forcing is altering for February, toward a more stable regime which has been largely elusive to date; namely, enhanced low-level convergence and upper level divergence near the more canonical dateline location. The U-wind at z850 is a valuable proxy to ascertain this eastward propagating WLY wind and thus convergence line, serving as a focus for tropical convection. The result of which should be the induction of the canonical Aleutian low / +PNA regime once the contaminating intra-seasonal signal propagates toward late phase 7 / near phase 8 [circa Feb 8th]. The Western troughing is courtesy of the slowly propagating MJO phase 6-7 signal, which has already been covered numerous time. We saw the same situation in late December w/ amplified 6-7 and resultant trough deepening in the West. I think we all realize that this winter has not "cooperated with the time scales delineated in many winter forecasts" but I believe the apposite thought in everyone's mind at this point is as follows: one no longer cares how it has been timed, but will winter ever show up? And the answer is that there's a good chance for 4-5 weeks of winter [which quite frankly, if one thinks about, a large percentage of our good winters have came in about a month's period]. The debate of course is the precise z500 structure going forward. Let me refrain from equivocating: the GEFS is dead wrong with the circling back to phase 6. The ECMWF is closer, but still a bit too much wandering in phase 7. The VPM has been most instructive, and indicates some slowing in phase 7 in early February before phase 8 entrance at the beginning of the second week of February. So the bottom line is that the pattern, a priori, should become progressively improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 But will it be east based or west based? East based causes more hugger scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 That AO forecast is anything but certain. NAO has been positive all winter and PNA negative for awhile-close the shades for another 10 days or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: That AO forecast is anything but certain. NAO has been positive all winter and PNA negative for awhile-close the shades for another 10 days or so.... Which takes us to about Feb 10th---and as noted before temps begin their annual ascent, longer days and hope springs eternal. I hope we don't pay for this later in the year(snow in March) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: That AO forecast is anything but certain. NAO has been positive all winter and PNA negative for awhile-close the shades for another 10 days or so.... yes at least till February 9th - anyone who is predicting an improvement past the 9th is just guessing...……. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: yes at least till February 9th - anyone who is predicting an improvement past the 9th is just guessing...……. They're not guessing. They are just trusting long range guidance too much. Whether that be MJO plots, SSWs, Ensembles, etc. All these products are just guidance and are not accurate in the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, ag3 said: They're not guessing. They are just trusting long range guidance too much. Whether that be MJO plots, SSWs, Ensembles, etc. All these products are just guidance and are not accurate in the long range. The problem with alot of that guidance too is that it's a forecast...so one is making a forecast based on a forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: They're not guessing. They are just trusting long range guidance too much. Whether that be MJO plots, SSWs, Ensembles, etc. All these products are just guidance and are not accurate in the long range. same difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: same difference How is it the same ? Some people do this for a living and look in dept at the pattern ahead. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 30 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Which takes us to about Feb 10th---and as noted before temps begin their annual ascent, longer days and hope springs eternal. I hope we don't pay for this later in the year(snow in March) The rising daily averages and longer days are not a factor in the right pattern. We can put down a season's worth of snow in the 2/15 - 3/15 period if things break favorably. Why so opposed to March snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 March snows don't last on the ground too long, but snowstorms have been very impressive and enjoyable in late February and March. Keep the faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowshack said: The rising daily averages and longer days are not a factor in the right pattern. We can put down a season's worth of snow in the 2/15 - 3/15 period if things break favorably. Why so opposed to March snow? I understand that length of day and rising temps cannot prevent a storm in the right pattern. My fear is a seasons worth of snow 2/15-3/15. Time to move on to spring -I know I’m early-this cold just took the wind out of my sails so to speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 After all this cold, I am going to enjoy the thaw next week before we reload. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, White Gorilla said: After all this cold, I am going to enjoy the thaw next week before we reload. some places will make a run at 60 Tuesday. That will feel nice. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: some places will make a run at 60 Tuesday. That will feel nice. Agree Hope the reload is a dud tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 20 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I understand that length of day and rising temps cannot prevent a storm in the right pattern. My fear is a seasons worth of snow 2/15-3/15. Time to move on to spring -I know I’m early-this cold just took the wind out of my sails so to speak Its not like its been wall to wall cold. We're finishing January around average, with some warm and cold stretches. I can see a snowy 3/15-4/15 would wear on people, but 2/15 - 3/15 is too early to root against snow imo, especially since we've had next to none! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Decent ensemble support showing up for the potential event on the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Snowshack said: Its not like its been wall to wall cold. We're finishing January around average, with some warm and cold stretches. I can see a snowy 3/15-4/15 would wear on people, but 2/15 - 3/15 is too early to root against snow imo, especially since we've had next to none! I couldn't agree more. If you can't root for a snowy February and March you should consider moving. I can see how April snows get on people nerves but I welcome them any year I get them, and in the HV they are fairly common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I couldn't agree more. If you can't root for a snowy February and March you should consider moving. I can see how April snows get on people nerves but I welcome them any year I get them, and in the HV they are fairly common. Depends on the year...I wouldn't mind an April snowstorm (like last year) if that was our only event for the year...other years I am rooting against it- 93-94-95-96, 13-14, 14-15-those years I had enough-lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Depends on the year...I wouldn't mind an April snowstorm (like last year) if that was our only event for the year...other years I am rooting against it- 93-94-95-96, 13-14, 14-15-those years I had enough-lol just like spring and summer as I get old and cranky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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