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Cheeznado

Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

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Well dang - I am near the bottom end of that list. Still, better than nothing and definitely better than living ITP.


. Pro

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57 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

NAM looks drier, especially as it enters NC, almost evaporates to 0 precip! Much more realistic 

6z Nam is the heaviest precip run yet for NC. Snow map doesnt yield alot in spots probably because, rain,ice or convection. 

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8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Y’all waiting on a frontal passage to give you snow!? Very, very sad, East of the mountains. But after this winter, I understand 

Must you shit on every thread? How is this productive?

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Must you shit on every thread? How is this productive?

Choosing to ignore certain poster content is liberating. :thumbsup:

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1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

Must you shit on every thread? How is this productive?

 

 

53 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Models have backed off, only 2 SREF members over 1" in ATL, 3KM NAM not impressed. LOL that earlier NAM.... 

Guess I’m just making stuff up??

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46 minutes ago, scsnowgirl said:

Do you think it will be safe to travel through the south tomorrow?  Traveling from New Orleans to Anderson, SC

There's nothing forecast for Monday. 

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12z NAM continues to show these streaks of accumulating snow with areas in between with very little. I personally would love the 12z NAM; it gives a small area from south Durham north eastward to Warrant county 3-4". **it's small enough that it could end up 30 miles to the east or west; if it materialized. 

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1 minute ago, LithiaWx said:

Dat nam tho....

When the NAM drum beats the same idea consistently it has a tendency to be correct.  The Euro wasn’t exactly awful for you last night unless you took the QPF verbatim.  It mysteriously dried everything up as the boundary moved east.  The mid and upper levels though didn’t really support that idea 

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I will go with the EURO and its getting warmer and warmer. In fact thunderstorms and severe weather are in our near future. 

As for the frontal passage its gonna be a band of light rain east of the mtns. And even the mtns arent going to get much. 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012700_120_480_215.png

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Is there Any chance this will be late?  Meaning it will happen in the evening on Tuesday for the central part of Alabama?  

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22 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It almost looks convective like summer time precip maps. There could be a lot of "haves and have nots". 

If you look at the Sim Radar. It appears to develop a weak LP center SW GA to Wilmington. With a "NW snows" on the backside.

Screenshot_20190127-103804.png

Screenshot_20190127-103810.png

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Looks like most of the models, including hi-res nam shows the precip coming through around 7-10PM Tuesday evening.  Limited amounts of QPF..maybe some convective bursts.. 
If it comes through that early, that will also give a lot of time for drying before it can freeze on roads.  May have some residual slick spots here and there Wednesday morning.

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4 minutes ago, FLweather said:

If you look at the Sim Radar. It appears to develop a weak LP center SW GA to Wilmington. With a "NW snows" on the backside.

Yes, and the globals can miss these small scale features that could provide local areas with enhanced precip. Is the NAM right? I would like to see this show up consistently on future runs before committing either way. I will say that a wave developing and some lee-side enhancement is not out of the question by any means. At this range I start to rely more heavily on the higher resolution guidance than on the globals. 

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Looks like most of the models, including hi-res nam shows the precip coming through around 7-10PM Tuesday evening.  Limited amounts of QPF..maybe some convective bursts.. 
If it comes through that early, that will also give a lot of time for drying before it can freeze on roads.  May have some residual slick spots here and there Wednesday morning.

Also gives a full day of heating!

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Also gives a full day of heating!

True, but timing of precip coming in after dark works in our favor.  We are pretty much grasping at straws at this point...but at least it is something to watch.

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The 12K NAM , 3K NAM, GFS, AND FV3 all show a solid 1-3" of Snow from the Front in MBY.  I hope it's right... would love to see the Euro do the same...

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6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 12K NAM , 3K NAM, GFS, AND FV3 all show a solid 1-3" of Snow from the Front in MBY.  I hope it's right... would love to see the Euro do the same...

You should know what will happen

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19 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 12K NAM , 3K NAM, GFS, AND FV3 all show a solid 1-3" of Snow from the Front in MBY.  I hope it's right... would love to see the Euro do the same...

GFSv3 even gives like 2-5” around Greensboro-Hickory 

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