snowfan Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Canaan looks to be the sweet spot for this. May need to run out there again this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: The WRF is showing the best Frontogenesis per TT which makes sense since it's the wettest followed by Rgem . Nam not much fgen. can you please be more specific when identifying the 'WRF'? Since you're referring to TT, I assume you're talking about one of the three hires windows, labeled as WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, and WRF-NMM (which should be labeled NMMB, but that's another issue). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I was going to mention that, the GFS was starting to juice up a tad but the NAM had zero until 12z today and now shows a little. Ridiculously cold grounds plus cold air temps could create a nice snow globe. You really can't hate that despite all of the doom in the LR we still snow i usally dont get excited for events like this but seeing snow with temps in the teens is very upper midwest. I am excited 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Started a thread for tomorrow because why not. May be the last time it snows until 2020. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Started a thread for tomorrow because why not. May be the last time it snows until 2020. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Hrdps looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Hrdps looks pretty good. Gets me in on the action, even if only some flakes. I’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 GFS with a nice event next weekend. Trailing wave after cutter #2. This has been showing up in one form or another for a couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS with a nice event next weekend. Trailing wave after cutter #2. This has been showing up in one form or another for a couple days. I posted this in the pattern thread. lol. This place is complicated nowadays. Anyways, overnight EPS adding to the interest And Fv3 with a fantasy hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 12z GEFS supportive of a coastal around the 11th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GEFS supportive of a coastal around the 11th. Sure is man... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Sure is man... But what does the pattern look like after? How fast will it melt? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: But what does the pattern look like after? How fast will it melt? 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GEFS supportive of a coastal around the 11th. Sometimes these types of windows come into focus early. Haven't really seen this much agreement this far out in time at all this year except for early Dec. A zillion things still have to happen first so tempered enthusiasm is the max I'll bite. Would be nice to have wiggle room for a bad track. Need cold behind the front next week to settle in and not slide out into the atl. Something to watch as we prepare for 50s and 60s (I'm honestly looking very forward to some warm days). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: But what does the pattern look like after? How fast will it melt? Mid Feb sun is torcher. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sometimes these types of windows come into focus early. Haven't really seen this much agreement this far out in time at all this year except for early Dec. A zillion things still have to happen first so tempered enthusiasm is the max I'll bite. Would be nice to have wiggle room for a bad track. Need cold behind the front next week to settle in and not slide out into the atl. Something to watch as we prepare for 50s and 60s (I'm honestly looking very forward to some warm days). This weekend will be perfect for finishing up an outside project. Temps 40-50. Only bad thing is the ground thawing out will produce a slipping hazard lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sure is man... Best long range big storm threat look since early December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 28 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: But what does the pattern look like after? How fast will it melt? This is funny...but its also annoying that some people can't seem to handle two running thoughts at the same time. Saying something negative about the pattern in general for the second half of February doesn't necessarily mean anything bad for a specific threat. At the same time...the people that don't want to look past it are annoying because no matter how good that day 10 threat looks it can and probably will miss...just the odds say that, and so we want as long a favorable window as possible with as many threats as possible to increase our chances to get snow. Why can't both conversations happen concurrently? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is funny...but its also annoying that some people can't seem to handle two running thoughts at the same time. Saying something negative about the pattern in general for the second half of February doesn't necessarily mean anything bad for a specific threat. At the same time...the people that don't want to look past it are annoying because no matter how good that day 10 threat looks it can and probably will miss...just the odds say that, and so we want as long a favorable window as possible with as many threats as possible to increase our chances to get snow. Why can't both conversations happen concurrently? Yea, the pigeon hole stuff is annoying. It's like we aren't allowed to share our thoughts and observations because if things change (like every single d10-15 prog) you become a scapegoat. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, the pigeon hole stuff is annoying. It's like we aren't allowed to share our thoughts and observations because if things change (like every single d10-15 prog) you become a scapegoat. lol But it is my fault... I finished my weather machine but I spilled some coffee on it and its stuck in -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I'm just glad my area has scored so i'm not as sensitive to changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I’m trying to get a handle on what’s possibly coming down the pike after our February thaw. I’ve seen maps for Feb 8th, 11th, and 14th. Is there any support from the Euro or is it just the GFS abs fv3 showing some coastal activity down the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Mid Feb sun is torcher. Couple that with moon angle and we’re just flat out toast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Seems pretty good from 2/9 onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: I’m trying to get a handle on what’s possibly coming down the pike after our February thaw. I’ve seen maps for Feb 8th, 11th, and 14th. Is there any support from the Euro or is it just the GFS abs fv3 showing some coastal activity down the road? I posted the 0z EPS meteogram earlier. Nearly half of the member suite show meaningful snow between the 9th-12th. This far out in time there will always be large spread with all guidance so don't expect consensus to develop for probably 5 days or so. The period looks good on paper and ensemble guidance show's there some potential. That's all you can say. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’m trying to get a handle on what’s possibly coming down the pike after our February thaw. I’ve seen maps for Feb 8th, 11th, and 14th. Is there any support from the Euro or is it just the GFS abs fv3 showing some coastal activity down the road? The EPS is hinting at a possible storm in that time period also. GEFS keeps upping the percentage of hits...12z GEFS is up to 10/20 members that give the DC area a borderline Warning or better level event. The mean didn't increase because a couple of massive hits that were skewing came off but the percentage with good snow increased. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just throwing it out there because the gfs and Fv3 have shown some sort of anafront potential around the 8th. Euro is close. A little too late with the cold but being 9 days away and an op run means nothing can be taken seriously. Just throwing out ideas. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just throwing it out there because the gfs and Fv3 have shown some sort of anafront potential around the 8th. Euro is close. A little too late with the cold but being 9 days away and an op run means nothing can be taken seriously. Just throwing out ideas I appreciate all your ideas. The more threats, regardless of significance level, the better. Boring is bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I think this was reported here in one of the threads, but not sure which one. Always thought the GEFS did well with the HL and new trends, but I am still surprised by this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 all we need is a signal at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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