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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035
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39 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

What's nice (for at least one run) is that both GFS's give us a 6+ storm in the Tue-Wed timeframe.  This concurs with the earlier Euro storm I think.  I'm still recovering from the 66-degree high temperature I had here today.  And to think, just 2 1/2 days ago it was zero here.

Yes, the Euro has had the next Tuesday & Wednesday storm for a few runs in a row. The 18z GFS & GFS -FV3 today showed a similar solution as the Euro, with a low tracking toward the Ohio Valley then a secondary low developing off of the coast of Virginia. The High pressure to the north & the CAD in place produce a good snow storm on these runs for most of CTP. Some mixing is possible in the LSV, depending on the final track & the High strength & position.

The chances are increasing for snow by this time next week !

 

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The 0z Euro & 6z GFS continue to bring snow to CTP next week. The Euro tracks a stronger primary to our west & develops a secondary low later than it has in previous runs. The GFS has a better high to our north, but seems to delay the main precip to reach us 1 day later than the Euro. Both present a front end thump of snow, but especially the Euro this run, brings more mixing after the snow to CTP. Lots of time to go. It will all depend on the strength & position of the High, & the timing of the development of the secondary low.

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

This rain storm has epically collapsed. If it were cold we would be jumping off bridges at the drastic precip cutoff. 

Yesterday looked like 1” qpf - might not see .2” lol

NWS disco always said that the focus of the really heavy stuff (1"+) was confined mainly to the NW 1/2 of CTP's CWA.  That would exclude the LSV.  (How's that for the use of abbreviations?? lol)

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We should all just hug the 18z GFS-FV3!

 

Wow, what a monumental difference between that and the regular GFS. 

As much as I wish that solution would happen, I think the Phase 7 MJO and -PNA definitely favors a parent low towards the lakes for that event. Now whether we can get a secondary miller B solution out of this in a timely fashion will dictate if we get much snow out of it. The models didn't really go in a great direction this afternoon on the 12z suite where the Euro took a low into the lakes with a late secondary low. Yea there's some front end business but it wasn't a great setup. 

The big sticking point I see with this right now is we don't have any help in the NAO realm in the form of any established blocking. Meanwhile, the PNA index might hit the earth's core with how low its supposed to go (-5!). The negative EPO is good but the western troughing via a PNA of that magnitude with no NAO or established Canadian blocking over top of us to counter is no bueno. I worry about this next event becoming another cutter with maybe a front end mess and/or ending changeover type deal. 

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LSV and MSV specific MODEL DISCUSSION (too early to make a call on what we will really happen)-

The trend of the models, including the 0Z Euro, is to Amp up and phase the second wave hundreds of miles to our West.  That is not a good look for this area as Southerly winds will over come the limited/shallow surface cold air just to our north even with a good CAD setup.  There is a supply of cold air in Eastern Canada but with no mechanism to bring it down, a storm to our South and East pulling it in, we are stuck with CAD from a retreating High and with temps well into the 20's over NY that leaves little room to fight the WAA.  For CAD to really be a big factor we need those low 20's to be over us and teens in NY when the precip arrives so we have a longer thump of snow and then ice (700/850 MB go above freezing)  while the temps slowly rise. The GFS and Euro do give us a 2-4" snow before it is all washed away.

 

There is still a train of storms showing up in the long range.  If we can get one coming from the S/W to ride the front/boundary instead of of digging we will be in business for a special event. 

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9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

There is still a train of storms showing up in the long range.  If we can get one coming from the S/W to ride the front/boundary instead of of digging we will be in business for a special event. 

Not for nothing, but hearing about an "train of storms" is not music to my ears, be it snow OR rain. Since last mid July, it's been nothing but stormy around these parts with some form of precipitation for what seems to be 2-3 days per week. I, for one, would love to see a bit of some drought-like conditions set up for awhile as I need a break from all this moisture, I feel like an old wooden pier growing barnacles...

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1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

LSV and MSV specific MODEL DISCUSSION (too early to make a call on what we will really happen)-

The trend of the models, including the 0Z Euro, is to Amp up and phase the second wave hundreds of miles to our West.  That is not a good look for this area as Southerly winds will over come the limited/shallow surface cold air just to our north even with a good CAD setup.  There is a supply of cold air in Eastern Canada but with no mechanism to bring it down, a storm to our South and East pulling it in, we are stuck with CAD from a retreating High and with temps well into the 20's over NY that leaves little room to fight the WAA.  For CAD to really be a big factor we need those low 20's to be over us and teens in NY when the precip arrives so we have a longer thump of snow and then ice (700/850 MB go above freezing)  while the temps slowly rise. The GFS and Euro do give us a 2-4" snow before it is all washed away.

 

There is still a train of storms showing up in the long range.  If we can get one coming from the S/W to ride the front/boundary instead of of digging we will be in business for a special event. 

that was my worry with this look early on.  Some in the MA forum said primary wouldnt make it to KY, but seasonal tendencies were in the back of my mind.  Looks like I was right for once....and not in a good way.

For all of the skeptics, I know its hard to say "looking out beyond" because many eyes roll as we've been looking beyond 7 days for the promise land all season, but folks need to be reminded that the base state REALLY looks to be changing  for the good.  Some semblance of -NAO showing up, MJO headed into 8 (money phase for us), and SOI dropping.  Thats at least 2 big changes that are needed, and if the NAO shows up.....thats 3.  2 out of 3 still gets things rockin round here. 

So as you model watch in the coming days, look for these trends to show up.  If they do, get the beer/bubbly ready...and if they don't....see mags post above as to why we may fail.

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

FWIW spring is in 39 days. Blah. 

Thanks for the reminder....:angry:

and people wonder why we leave the board in winter during bad periods......

 

Us snow lovers are like the fat guys sitting in the dunk tank at a pitching cliniic

Warmies are the pitchers and good at it.

 

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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thanks for the reminder....:angry:

and people wonder why we leave the board in winter during bad periods......

 

Us snow lovers are like the fat guys sitting in the dunk tank at a pitching cliniic

Warmies are the pitchers and good at it.

 

I like the term Warminista.  Warminista's only talk about models when things are going their way.  (Not that Canderson is one just to clarify). 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

FWIW spring is in 39 days. Blah. 

Then we got to start worrying about sun angle.

West and Midwest below average temps and record snowfalls.

1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol I think nws is overly stingy with Flood Watches...models honing in on 1 to 2 inches of rain with streams swollen and ice flows moving like crazy on creeks up here and yet...nothing.

We should be ok with the rainfall we have coming. Wmspt suppose to crest @ 14.5.

The problem could be ice jams. 

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