pawatch Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Ha...Looks like the warmest temp on that map is Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Made it down to +0.9F for my low, basically to my predicted low of zero. Tiny bit of wind kicked up during the night and stopped the drop. Well I will be sorry to say goodbye to the snowcover, but I would rather lose it through sunshine than through rain. Looks like by the time any meaningful rain makes it here (not until Thursday) the warmth of the preceding days will have erased most of it. No one is talking about the long range. What's up with beyond the end of next week? What did the overnight Euro show for days 7>10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I browsed LR threads in the other forums this morning and the consensus the past day or so seems like models say winter is nearly done. Thankfuly LR modems blow and imo are a waste of time and energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, canderson said: I browsed LR threads in the other forums this morning and the consensus the past day or so seems like models say winter is nearly done. Thankfuly LR modems blow and imo are a waste of time and energy. I honestly can say that there is no confidence beyond 3 or 4 days. No chance anyone knows what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, pawatch said: Ha...Looks like the warmest temp on that map is Erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 27 minutes ago, canderson said: I browsed LR threads in the other forums this morning and the consensus the past day or so seems like models say winter is nearly done. Thankfuly LR modems blow and imo are a waste of time and energy. Natural gas futures have tanked recently which are a decent indicator of the "smart money" thinking. By NO MEANS do they always get it right but there's some talented Mofo's hired by those outfits to predict long range trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: I browsed LR threads in the other forums this morning and the consensus the past day or so seems like models say winter is nearly done. Thankfuly LR modems blow and imo are a waste of time and energy. No idea where you saw that bad info... Winter is very far from over. I think the best part is yet to arrive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: No idea where you saw that bad info... Winter is very far from over. I think the best part is yet to arrive! Have the latest Euro weeklies changed their minds in any meaningful way? They have been showing February (the entire month) to be the greatest negative departure from normal on temps for the past 2 months with no change that I'm aware of, at least as of last weekend. Can anyone post the current and forecast PNA, AO, NAO, and MJO phase?? We need data (those of us who don't have easy access to it)...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 So I'm sitting here in Lancaster at Thaddeus Stevens College and it's colder here (27F) than it is at home in Tamaqua (31F). Go figure. I hate cold so it follows me...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: No idea where you saw that bad info... Winter is very far from over. I think the best part is yet to arrive! Go check out the NE and MA threads - dire over there. I don’t buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 23 minutes ago, canderson said: Go check out the NE and MA threads - dire over there. I don’t buy it. Go check the MA thread again & read the good posters. It is far from dire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 25 minutes ago, canderson said: Go check out the NE and MA threads - dire over there. I don’t buy it. The truth is no one knows what will happen, which is different than most years. Long-range guidance (beyond 5 days) is abysmal. No reason to be despondent, unless it is about the blowtorch about to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Sun today is murdering snowpack. Boooooooooooooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 21 hours ago, canderson said: Measured ~1.75” at home in midtown hbg. Anyone around here have anything similar? I’m putting it the books at 2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Here are snow maps from the 12z runs of the GEFS & EPS through the next 15 days. Almost all of the snow falls from day 8 through day 15. The pattern looks active with improved help from the Atlantic side. Once we get through Friday when the cold front clears, the snow game is back on ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: Sun today is murdering snowpack. Boooooooooooooooo. We ended up under what they was projecting for a high temp today. My high was 26 degrees and they was originally projecting 39 degrees. Didnt even make it above freezing. Not sure how much the snow pack was effected today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, pawatch said: We ended up under what they was projecting for a high temp today. My high was 26 degrees and they was originally projecting 39 degrees. Didnt even make it above freezing. Not sure how much the snow pack was effected today. Yes, my yard here in Marysville is still fully snow covered as of sunset today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 The 18z GFS way out in the long range just provided PD III ! I realize this will change a million times between now & then, but this sure is fun to consider as a possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Well, nice to see a little excitement in these past few hours. I think none of us reached our forecast high temp for this afternoon. I was forecast to reach 37 and peaked out at 32.2 degrees. That stopped my continuous sub-freezing streak at 119 hours, which is a pretty good duration. I kept hoping it wouldn't go above 32.0...lol...and then it did for like 10 minutes and then dropped back down. I'd have another 16 to 18 hours to add on to the streak if it went until tomorrow morning. Very little snow melted here as well and I have total cover still, albeit maybe an inch or two. The snow started out with such an incredible chill (lows near zero this morning) that it made it pretty tough to melt anything with a temp right at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, pawatch said: We ended up under what they was projecting for a high temp today. My high was 26 degrees and they was originally projecting 39 degrees. Didnt even make it above freezing. Not sure how much the snow pack was effected today. Basically any paved surface here that was hit by the sun is on its way to being snow-free after today, if it wasn’t in the sun tho not much melting. Hit 33 imby so a few degrees under forecast as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 9 hours ago, canderson said: I browsed LR threads in the other forums this morning and the consensus the past day or so seems like models say winter is nearly done. Thankfuly LR modems blow and imo are a waste of time and energy. I think it COULD be an amazing month tracking wise. People are punting this coming week while in reality we could see a frozen threat on Thursday. Today's major temp bust is proof enough that any precip coming our way can be interesting once we get by Wed. If we see that front drop far enough south and dissect the mid to southern MA, we could be seeing frozen threat after frozen threat while most of the MA forum sees rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I feel things this month could be good. Lots of storms to track and we will all share in the white gold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Here's something you don't see very often... At 10:00PM it's 21 degrees at MDT while it's 36 at UNV and 39 at AOO !!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 hours ago, bubbler86 said: I think it COULD be an amazing month tracking wise. People are punting this coming week while in reality we could see a frozen threat on Thursday. Today's major temp bust is proof enough that any precip coming our way can be interesting once we get by Wed. If we see that front drop far enough south and dissect the mid to southern MA, we could be seeing frozen threat after frozen threat while most of the MA forum sees rain. Yes, it all depends on where the boundary sets up over the next couple of weeks. The MJO is heading towards phase 8 according to the Euro. Also, we should get more help with the -NAO & good positioning of the 50-50 low could also improve our snow chances here in CTP. There was a poster in the old Accuweather forums from the Lebanon, PA area whose tag line said , “ when I-95 is mixing, I’m cashing in”. I think this is often true. Many folks here in PA rely on the postings of the MA & NYC threads. Many times their weather doesn’t apply exactly to our resulting conditions here in PA. There are several good posters in those forums that I enjoy reading every day for their thoughts on the overall regional pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 At least it's 21 (I have the same temp here) and not -5, like the past few nights. I finally was able to use my washer fluid in the Jeep. The past few days it was frozen solid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Superstorm said: I feel things this month could be good. Lots of storms to track and we will all share in the white gold. . Yes, it’s going to be very busy in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 The 0z Euro has CTP on the good side of the boundary for snow early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 10 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: Here's something you don't see very often... At 10:00PM it's 21 degrees at MDT while it's 36 at UNV and 39 at AOO !!! I was at Ski Liberty last evening and it was 26 degrees at the base. Driving home I went through Blue Ridge Summit, which is 1000-2000 feet higher, and the temp spiked to 33 and then back down in the 20's as I go to the other side of the mountain. Valleys rule sometimes. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I once arrived home and started up my driveway (it was raining with bare ground) and by the time I got up to the house it was snowing and the ground was white. Turned around and went back down to the bottom of my drive and it was still raining. Drove back up to the house and it was still snowing. Sometimes the dividing line can be very thin. My driveway was just shy of 1/4 mile long with a switchback. This was in NE PA around Montrose. Hilltops with snow at tops and bottoms with rain was not uncommon in that area. Especially driving along Route 6. But in all the time I lived there this was the only time I saw a difference between the bottom of my driveway versus up at the house. It was a weird experience. Used to be a beautiful area up around there until fracking took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I like February for the obvious fact of the snowiest month but also the lengthening days. We've now gained over an hour sunrise-to-sunset time and picking up over 2 minutes a day. It really struck me last night that I could still see discernible light at 6:00 PM. The days of early winter darkness before 5:00 PM stinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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