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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035
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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

How many feet are you from the Maryland border - less than 40'? :)

1/4 mile!  LOL. I leave my driveway, take a right, and Maryland is a few seconds.  It sucks if you have GPS on as you hear "Welcome to MD" and "Welcome to PA" several times on a few of these roads that wind back and forth across the border. 

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Just got back after running errands past 2 hours.  Surprised it is still snowing, but the end really is arriving.  Picked up another 0.2" to give me a final of 1.2" for the event.  Once again the models handled this one very well as this was just about exactly what all of them were calling for over my area...between 1 and 1.5".  Temp at 16.7 after peaking at 17.0.  It was a great day with the calm, cold, and light snow falling all day long.  Got a great view of the male cardinal that nests near my forest.  Really easy to spot when the background is mainly black and white.  Will be sorry to see it slowly vanish over the next few days.  At least it should remain dry for a while.

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26 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

I find it interesting that people in South Central PA are hardcore weather in this forum...you keep this place buzzing.

I had touched on this myself a few months ago shortly after coming back here.  On EUSWX we had a forum that was more specific to S Central PA and was compromised mostly of non met's who were into forecasting whether for pay or not.  It was fairly technical and somewhat similar to the MA LR Forecasting forum.  I have found myself having to hold back here a lot as I recognize this forum is now as much about the fun side of weather as the technical side plus it covers areas which rarely get similar weather where it pertains to snow storms. I feel a bit weird posting about heavy snow (which I am still getting) when people in the same forum are looking at PC skies. 

 

 

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

I had touched on this myself a few months ago shortly after coming back here.  On EUSWX we had a forum that was more specific to S Central PA and was compromised mostly of non met's who were into forecasting whether for pay or not.  It was fairly technical and somewhat similar to the MA LR Forecasting forum.  I have found myself having to hold back here a lot as I recognize this forum is now as much about the fun side of weather as the technical side plus it covers areas which rarely get similar weather where it pertains to snow storms. I feel a bit weird posting about heavy snow (which I am still getting) when people in the same forum are looking at PC skies. 

 

 

Don't dude, that's weather we northern dudes root for all of you, without you no subforum.

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Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Don't dude, that's weather we northern dudes root for all of you, without you no subforum.

:-). I was not thinking your post was meant as a jab I just took it as the way to mention I still feel bad for you guys having to reading the OB's and was kind of chuckling about your buzzing comment as this forum used to be a lot like the MA forum though with slightly less drama. 

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9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I had touched on this myself a few months ago shortly after coming back here.  On EUSWX we had a forum that was more specific to S Central PA and was compromised mostly of non met's who were into forecasting whether for pay or not.  It was fairly technical and somewhat similar to the MA LR Forecasting forum.  I have found myself having to hold back here a lot as I recognize this forum is now as much about the fun side of weather as the technical side plus it covers areas which rarely get similar weather where it pertains to snow storms. I feel a bit weird posting about heavy snow (which I am still getting) when people in the same forum are looking at PC skies. 

 

 

Please don't hold back the technical side.  I truly enjoy reading the technical posts.

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Finally getting a chance to read the forum as I sit here watching the skiers at Blue Mountan near Palmerton. The wife brought me supper as she works not far from here. Her car thermometer showed 11 degrees. I saw some flurries today in Tamaqua/Hazleton, but that was it. Glad some of you got a nice little event today. 

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3 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

I had touched on this myself a few months ago shortly after coming back here.  On EUSWX we had a forum that was more specific to S Central PA and was compromised mostly of non met's who were into forecasting whether for pay or not.  It was fairly technical and somewhat similar to the MA LR Forecasting forum.  I have found myself having to hold back here a lot as I recognize this forum is now as much about the fun side of weather as the technical side plus it covers areas which rarely get similar weather where it pertains to snow storms. I feel a bit weird posting about heavy snow (which I am still getting) when people in the same forum are looking at PC skies. 

 

 

Please don’t hold back on the technical stuff & model/pattern analysis.

We like to have fun here, but it is good to mix in more good info from time to time. We can also learn from each other along the way !

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2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Please don't hold back the technical side.  I truly enjoy reading the technical posts.

It looks like MDT only measured 1.1 inches of snow with .10 of precip today.

I thought that with the ratios forecast for today that .10 of precip would have produced closer to 2 inches of snow with a 20-1 ratio?

 

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At the moment conditions are perfect for extreme radiational cooling.  The skies cleared right after sunset.  The winds are calm and haven't budged since 7:00.  There is fresh snow of varying depths from roughly my latitude and south.  I suppose only the dewpoints might prevent an incredible drop, but I think a lot of people are headed towards zero and below by morning.  That includes those up north who didn't get anything today but who still have a decent snowpack on the ground.  I'm down to 8.4 after being near 17 just 4 hours ago.  I'm expecting to drop to zero by morning and wouldn't be surprised to see lower than that.

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At midnight I have radiated all the way down to +2.5 degrees.  The rate of decline had been steady at 2 deg/hour until about the last hour when it slowed down to less than 1 deg/hr.  That probably means I'm not going to go much below zero overnight, but we'll see in the morning.  A quick peak at all my surrounding wunderground stations shows they are all radiating also.  NWS had to drastically lower their original forecasted lows.  Mine earlier was for a low of 10.  Now they have it at 4, which I'm already below.  York bottomed out back at 10pm at -6 before rising back up a tiny bit.

I melted down my snow and my 1.2" produced 0.08" of liquid for a perfect 15:1 ratio.  Cashtown, what was  your ratio??

Tomorrow's forecast high of 40 with sun is literally going to feel like a heatwave.  It's been continuously below freezing here since 4:15pm back on the 28th.  When we rise above it tomorrow afternoon I'll calculate the number of hours.  

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